I think I am on the brink of getting fired this year for my squirrelly predictions on both Gold Derby and The Gurus of Gold. When you pick something outside of the general thinking you are often written off for being someone who is either advocating for the film you want to win, or else so bad at predicting you couldn’t possibly know what is expected to win. It is almost as though predictors should have two categories — what I think will probably win, and why can’t this movie win instead? I will never say The Artist can’t win or won’t win. Of course it can win and of course it will probably win. Is it a worthy winner? Absolutely. Is it the best film of 2011? That’s debatable.
Many people so far believe it is and therefore that’s really all it needs. It has an Oscar story (made, like The King’s Speech, for a small amount of money and will probably profit greatly). When we talk about Best Picture we have to remember that it isn’t “best Picture.” It’s “the film most people could agree on was best.” And god love us as a species but agreeing on one thing is hard for us to do. So on the record, yeah, the Artist is the frontrunner. Gold Derby has the Artist moving ahead of the Descendants. But that movie only has to win one big award and it takes its place in the number one spot again. My choice right now, Moneyball, is way down the list — as in, I’m the only one who thinks it can win. But is it ahead right now? No, it’s not. It’s way way down the list. Our contender tracker lists those contenders I believe are ahead, without my own emotional content infecting it.
Check out the Gold Derby chart here.
To that end, removing my emotional content and just look at buzz and talk, reviews and box office it’s The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, War Horse, The Help, Moneyball. Then it’s Midnight in Paris, Tree of Life. Still in the unknown territory: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.
Please note: my leaving War Horse off my last article was a dumb oversight – my mind was elsewhere and I just blanked on it. I do think it’s a formidable contender, of course.
I don’t really see anything but The Artist winning. Either that or War Horse. Tree of Life can certainly get nominated but has too many people divided. Another potential winner is Midnight in Paris.
Isn’t it still a little too early to tell right now? The Artist has a good start but it shouldn’t be a sure thing just yet. I’m rooting for War Horse in this but the Oscar race seem to be too early to be sure. NBR is Hugo and NYFCC is The Artist and the award season just got started. Also, last year, TSN scored a 78.5 vs TKS scored a 31 in Critics Award Scoreboard but TKS is the winner of Academy.
maybe you could do a timeline of your changing choices over the period Sasha. just remember, relax, don’t be so serious like you’re analyzing DNA mutation or atoms colliding in that facilitiy in Switzerland. so you think Moneyball is the best picture of the year? ’cause i had a feeling that you were really wanting for Girl With The Dragon Tattoo to win long before it came out and with just the name of the director attached. but since it was shunned by the NYFCC you are now behind Moneyball. Methinks that if The Descendants would win LAFCC you’d again switch allegiance to that film. that’s okay… as long as you don’t take these things seriously like you always do. cheers!!
I hear that TGWTDT is long and depressing, but good. But it’s VERY dark. Rooney Mara an iffy nomination for Best Actress. But none of this is a slam dunk.
And “War Horse” is said to be also good, but schmalt-z. But good.
Nobody raving about either film, I’ve noticed…And I haven’t seen either yet. So I’m under no embargo. At least not yet, to report what I’m hearing.
Me? I’m still backing the beautiful, young, brilliant Michelle Williams to take best actress for “Marilyn.”
NObody’s seen ELAIC so THAT could change things. But I think Tom O’Neil’s got the goods this year.
War Horse is this years Dreamgirls.
I hope Moneyball wins. Haven’t seen it. But I want it to win just so all of those bandwagon jumpers look like asses.
Right now, I think The Artist has more buzz than any other film. If the Oscars were tomorrow, it would probably win Best Picture. But as Paddy said, it’s still too early in the race, there are movies that remain to be seen, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close especially comes mind. Stephen Daldry is always a major player.
@ red_wine
This early in the race, it makes no sense to claim that there’s no way any film can win Best Picture. Nothing is certain yet.
@ red_wine
This early in the race, it makes no sense to claim that there’s no way any film can win Best Picture. Nothing is certain yet.
I too think The Artist takes Best Picture. I think it will take DGA & PGA too.
There’s NO way Moneyball is winning Best Picture.
I too think The Artist takes Best Picture. I think it will take DGA & PGA too.
There’s NO way Moneyball is winning Best Picture.
I think Moneyball is a good shout, Sasha. There’s no reason to suggest that it cannot win. If the stars align, as they say, for it, it could easily walk off with several awards; Best Picture, Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Sound Mixing. As long as a few major groups put their weight behind it, that is, but I think there’s still a decent chance of that happening. Indeed, in such an open year, if things remain as open as they are now, so many films are in a similar position, and Moneyball is definitely one of them.
I think Moneyball is a good shout, Sasha. There’s no reason to suggest that it cannot win. If the stars align, as they say, for it, it could easily walk off with several awards; Best Picture, Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Sound Mixing. As long as a few major groups put their weight behind it, that is, but I think there’s still a decent chance of that happening. Indeed, in such an open year, if things remain as open as they are now, so many films are in a similar position, and Moneyball is definitely one of them.
I also agree that The Artist flourishes as a gimmick and it is just an “easy watch”. It works and it is impressive only because it is a silent black and white movie with hype. If it had dialogue, it would be your typical flick about that time period which was much better re-done or imitated in the ’60s,’70’s. I also was not wowed with the acting. Dujardin doesn’t bring anything to the table that another actor couldn’t bring. I bet if a major star were cast, the critics would not be impressed or charmed because they would expect more out of an A-lister but Dujardin has chic novelty. I just didn’t feel true depth to the movie. It was fun the first time, but it just loses its appeal in repeat viewings.
It is December and there seems to be no mass media or public favorite yet, so it is still anybody’s game! This has been the most unpredictable race yet, but we need to wait until the Critic Choice Awards to see what the trend is. There is no real frontrunners yet in any category yet.
I also agree that The Artist flourishes as a gimmick and it is just an “easy watch”. It works and it is impressive only because it is a silent black and white movie with hype. If it had dialogue, it would be your typical flick about that time period which was much better re-done or imitated in the ’60s,’70’s. I also was not wowed with the acting. Dujardin doesn’t bring anything to the table that another actor couldn’t bring. I bet if a major star were cast, the critics would not be impressed or charmed because they would expect more out of an A-lister but Dujardin has chic novelty. I just didn’t feel true depth to the movie. It was fun the first time, but it just loses its appeal in repeat viewings.
It is December and there seems to be no mass media or public favorite yet, so it is still anybody’s game! This has been the most unpredictable race yet, but we need to wait until the Critic Choice Awards to see what the trend is. There is no real frontrunners yet in any category yet.
Oh, god. The Artist and The Descendants currently seem like the two frontrunners now. I seriously hope that changes. In fact, I think it will change and the tides might change. Personally, I felt Hugo was a much better ode to the magic of cinema before the tech age. I think The Artist mainly has novelty going for it. It was a well-made silent film harkening back to the past history of Hollywood. It was thin on plot, emotional impact, any deep performances, and character development for me. Singin’ in the Rain was SO much more exceptional. There have been better movies made about that era. I find the buzz behind The Artist to be maddening! I didn’t hate it but I do not think it is best picture material and I think the other contenders would wipe the floor with it if not for the zeitgeist. It keeps projecting itself as the hip choice for cinemaphiles to root for, well I am rooting for the true movies that expand upon the wheel. I found The Artist mildly entertaining but was not impressed by it.
The zeitgeist can be frustrating. Last year, The Artist would have been squashed by TSN and TKS. It would have been trounced by The Hurt Locker and Avatar. It would have been decimated by TCCOB, Milk, and Slumdong Millionaire. What is it with this year? Is it because there are no favorites and the critics are being tough on top directors like Eastwood, Spielberg, and Malick?! I would be fine if The Artist just fell off the radar.
I know Clooney and Payne have a strong fanbase here so I won’t go off on a long rant about this but I personally feel that The Descendants, next to The Artist, was the most overrated film of the year. I am baffled by its acclaim. I can handle it being nominated but the frontrunner for Best Pic, hell no. I expect Best Actor to slog it out btw Clooney and DiCaprio with Fassy or Pitt being the dark horses.
I hope the main awards circuit goes in a different direction. The academy likes to mix up trends, having The Artist dominate after TKS hijacked the awards race just seems urrrrgh. The academy likes to change it up. You had The Departed, NCFOM, Slumdog Millionaire, THL, and then TKS which were very different movies in tone and target audience. The Academy likes to shake it up.
I don’t think Moneyball will win anything except perhaps Best Adapted Screenplay. Though I still feel it will at least get nominated for Best Pic with five extra slots, Actor, and possibly supporting actor for Jonah Hill. Bennett Miller needs to get out there more for the Best Director nom.
I also think The Dangerous Method, J.Edgar ( even though it was panned),
Carnage, Albert Nobbs, and Shame are not out of the running yet. I also feel good about adding Hugo and HPDH2 to my top ten list for possible Best Pic noms. I think Tree of Life will be a strong contender along with possibly War Horse.
Midnight in Paris just lost its traction and so did MMMM. I don’t think The Help will make the cut either besides a possible acting nom.
Oh, god. The Artist and The Descendants currently seem like the two frontrunners now. I seriously hope that changes. In fact, I think it will change and the tides might change. Personally, I felt Hugo was a much better ode to the magic of cinema before the tech age. I think The Artist mainly has novelty going for it. It was a well-made silent film harkening back to the past history of Hollywood. It was thin on plot, emotional impact, any deep performances, and character development for me. Singin’ in the Rain was SO much more exceptional. There have been better movies made about that era. I find the buzz behind The Artist to be maddening! I didn’t hate it but I do not think it is best picture material and I think the other contenders would wipe the floor with it if not for the zeitgeist. It keeps projecting itself as the hip choice for cinemaphiles to root for, well I am rooting for the true movies that expand upon the wheel. I found The Artist mildly entertaining but was not impressed by it.
The zeitgeist can be frustrating. Last year, The Artist would have been squashed by TSN and TKS. It would have been trounced by The Hurt Locker and Avatar. It would have been decimated by TCCOB, Milk, and Slumdong Millionaire. What is it with this year? Is it because there are no favorites and the critics are being tough on top directors like Eastwood, Spielberg, and Malick?! I would be fine if The Artist just fell off the radar.
I know Clooney and Payne have a strong fanbase here so I won’t go off on a long rant about this but I personally feel that The Descendants, next to The Artist, was the most overrated film of the year. I am baffled by its acclaim. I can handle it being nominated but the frontrunner for Best Pic, hell no. I expect Best Actor to slog it out btw Clooney and DiCaprio with Fassy or Pitt being the dark horses.
I hope the main awards circuit goes in a different direction. The academy likes to mix up trends, having The Artist dominate after TKS hijacked the awards race just seems urrrrgh. The academy likes to change it up. You had The Departed, NCFOM, Slumdog Millionaire, THL, and then TKS which were very different movies in tone and target audience. The Academy likes to shake it up.
I don’t think Moneyball will win anything except perhaps Best Adapted Screenplay. Though I still feel it will at least get nominated for Best Pic with five extra slots, Actor, and possibly supporting actor for Jonah Hill. Bennett Miller needs to get out there more for the Best Director nom.
I also think The Dangerous Method, J.Edgar ( even though it was panned),
Carnage, Albert Nobbs, and Shame are not out of the running yet. I also feel good about adding Hugo and HPDH2 to my top ten list for possible Best Pic noms. I think Tree of Life will be a strong contender along with possibly War Horse.
Midnight in Paris just lost its traction and so did MMMM. I don’t think The Help will make the cut either besides a possible acting nom.
“If The Artist wins Best Picture, we’re not going to have to worry about tens of millions of people wondering if The Dark Knight Rises will pull a Return of the King, because the Oscars may as well be on pay-per-view, MyNetwork TV or positively Ion Television because the rest of mainstream America will bail en masse.”
But PaulH, you claimed a couple years ago that if the Academy chose “The Hurt Locker” over “Avatar” that mainstream America would bail en masse on the Oscars. And since “The Hurt Locker” did indeed win BP, shouldn’t that mean America has already bailed on the Oscars? You mean they’re going to super-duper, “I really mean it this time” bail?
Or is it possible that you just tend to overreact when your big budget blockbusters don’t win the Big One?
Frankly, I’d rather have the Oscars move to pay-per-view than see it turn into the People’s Choice Awards, choosing movies only because they’re “big” and have pulled in large audiences due to marketing, hype, and commercial tie-ins.
“If The Artist wins Best Picture, we’re not going to have to worry about tens of millions of people wondering if The Dark Knight Rises will pull a Return of the King, because the Oscars may as well be on pay-per-view, MyNetwork TV or positively Ion Television because the rest of mainstream America will bail en masse.”
But PaulH, you claimed a couple years ago that if the Academy chose “The Hurt Locker” over “Avatar” that mainstream America would bail en masse on the Oscars. And since “The Hurt Locker” did indeed win BP, shouldn’t that mean America has already bailed on the Oscars? You mean they’re going to super-duper, “I really mean it this time” bail?
Or is it possible that you just tend to overreact when your big budget blockbusters don’t win the Big One?
Frankly, I’d rather have the Oscars move to pay-per-view than see it turn into the People’s Choice Awards, choosing movies only because they’re “big” and have pulled in large audiences due to marketing, hype, and commercial tie-ins.
I can see why you chose Moneyball, if everything cancels the other ones out then it could come to the front due to its come from behind nature. your pick was the smartest one, all the others are just following the hive (though they had a reason to)
I can see why you chose Moneyball, if everything cancels the other ones out then it could come to the front due to its come from behind nature. your pick was the smartest one, all the others are just following the hive (though they had a reason to)
If The Artist wins Best Picture, we’re not going to have to worry about tens of millions of people wondering if The Dark Knight Rises will pull a Return of the King, because the Oscars may as well be on pay-per-view, MyNetwork TV or positively Ion Television because the rest of mainstream America will bail en masse.
If AMPAS wants to commit professional suicide and not have ANYONE tune into future Oscar telecasts, then just hand over the store to the gimmick French silent movie.
If The Artist wins Best Picture, we’re not going to have to worry about tens of millions of people wondering if The Dark Knight Rises will pull a Return of the King, because the Oscars may as well be on pay-per-view, MyNetwork TV or positively Ion Television because the rest of mainstream America will bail en masse.
If AMPAS wants to commit professional suicide and not have ANYONE tune into future Oscar telecasts, then just hand over the store to the gimmick French silent movie.
Isn’t it true that never before a film – that wasn’t a production or at least a co-production from the US or the UK – won BP? Please, correct me if I’m wrong. In case my assumption is right, how can it be that this never seems to be considered regarding France’s “The Artist”? So, what are actually the odds that film winning BP? I, of course, hope it doesn’t make any difference. But …, well, I was just wondering.
By the way, in this context one question always comes to my mind: Why was “Das Boot” (one of the best anti-war films ever and nominated for 6 Academy Awards, including Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay) not nominated for Best Picture or at least Best Foreign Film? Does anyone on this site have an answer?
Isn’t it true that never before a film – that wasn’t a production or at least a co-production from the US or the UK – won BP? Please, correct me if I’m wrong. In case my assumption is right, how can it be that this never seems to be considered regarding France’s “The Artist”? So, what are actually the odds that film winning BP? I, of course, hope it doesn’t make any difference. But …, well, I was just wondering.
By the way, in this context one question always comes to my mind: Why was “Das Boot” (one of the best anti-war films ever and nominated for 6 Academy Awards, including Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay) not nominated for Best Picture or at least Best Foreign Film? Does anyone on this site have an answer?
It’s an interesting year so far. I like the fact that even though some people are predicting The Artist as the current frontrunner it’s still anyone’s game. Until we’re further into the awards season I’m not confident in saying anyone is the frontrunner because things might change at any moment.
It’s an interesting year so far. I like the fact that even though some people are predicting The Artist as the current frontrunner it’s still anyone’s game. Until we’re further into the awards season I’m not confident in saying anyone is the frontrunner because things might change at any moment.
My gut says Hugo, Dragon Tattoo or The Artist will win. But my gut isn’t too reliable…
My gut says Hugo, Dragon Tattoo or The Artist will win. But my gut isn’t too reliable…
I agree- this picking the flavor of the week is a little silly. Who do you think will win next February? It can change of course, but not every two or three weeks. So good for you for voting with your gut.
That said, I think your gut is wrong. Moneyball is maybe in the Top Ten but I wouldn’t call it a lock for a nomination, much less a contender for the win. The buzz is way too quiet.
Reminds me of Into the Wild– solid but overlooked.
I agree- this picking the flavor of the week is a little silly. Who do you think will win next February? It can change of course, but not every two or three weeks. So good for you for voting with your gut.
That said, I think your gut is wrong. Moneyball is maybe in the Top Ten but I wouldn’t call it a lock for a nomination, much less a contender for the win. The buzz is way too quiet.
Reminds me of Into the Wild– solid but overlooked.
Yes, The Artist will win Best Picture. I cannot, or rather, will not accept anything else. This film was remarkable!
Yes, The Artist will win Best Picture. I cannot, or rather, will not accept anything else. This film was remarkable!
What have I kept saying… it’s about that time, The Artist is looking to be the clear frontrunner. I have a good feeling it’s on the way to winning, just the same as The King’s Speech last year. The accolades just keep coming in. And above all, The Artist is just such an easy movie to fall in love with, so it’ll keep winning them over.
What have I kept saying… it’s about that time, The Artist is looking to be the clear frontrunner. I have a good feeling it’s on the way to winning, just the same as The King’s Speech last year. The accolades just keep coming in. And above all, The Artist is just such an easy movie to fall in love with, so it’ll keep winning them over.
More power to you for voting with your gut, Sasha. I feel like many Oscar pundits are really just predicting the flavor of the week rather than what film will actually have staying power. In 2009, the pundits were dead set on predicting Up in the Air until it became a race between Avatar and The Hurt Locker and it seemed like they kept switching back and forth between the two every couple weeks, easily distracted by shiny awards like the dog in Up.
Case in point: The Descendants. How did this ever get frontrunner status in the first place, exactly? Great reviews? Solid festival reception? The Descendants is a terrific film, but it’s not a Best Picture winner. This sort of contemporary indie-style dramas with some comedy elements never win big. Oftentimes they’re more engaging, more realistic, and more connected to our personal struggles than the Best Picture winners, but they don’t win. I think some people just started speculating it was in the lead and then it slowly became a self-propagating buzz machine, despite the fact that The Descendants will probably win about as many Oscars as The Kids Are All Right or Up in the Air. Maaaaybe it will win as many Oscars as Sideways.
More power to you for voting with your gut, Sasha. I feel like many Oscar pundits are really just predicting the flavor of the week rather than what film will actually have staying power. In 2009, the pundits were dead set on predicting Up in the Air until it became a race between Avatar and The Hurt Locker and it seemed like they kept switching back and forth between the two every couple weeks, easily distracted by shiny awards like the dog in Up.
Case in point: The Descendants. How did this ever get frontrunner status in the first place, exactly? Great reviews? Solid festival reception? The Descendants is a terrific film, but it’s not a Best Picture winner. This sort of contemporary indie-style dramas with some comedy elements never win big. Oftentimes they’re more engaging, more realistic, and more connected to our personal struggles than the Best Picture winners, but they don’t win. I think some people just started speculating it was in the lead and then it slowly became a self-propagating buzz machine, despite the fact that The Descendants will probably win about as many Oscars as The Kids Are All Right or Up in the Air. Maaaaybe it will win as many Oscars as Sideways.
Greetings from Greece and congratulations on your wonderful site – first time commenting. Although a big Spielberg fan, i don’t think a win is in order for War Horse. It’s still a contender though, with lots of nominations and great(i predict) box office results. I am not sure about the Artist just yet. It’s a major player but this year there is not a clear favourite. However, i strongly believe that , like last year, the PGA result will be a catalyst. Whoever wins it will be the frontrunner. I know that the DGA has better tracking record but the key will be the PGA.
Greetings from Greece and congratulations on your wonderful site – first time commenting. Although a big Spielberg fan, i don’t think a win is in order for War Horse. It’s still a contender though, with lots of nominations and great(i predict) box office results. I am not sure about the Artist just yet. It’s a major player but this year there is not a clear favourite. However, i strongly believe that , like last year, the PGA result will be a catalyst. Whoever wins it will be the frontrunner. I know that the DGA has better tracking record but the key will be the PGA.
The same logic applies to Moneyball, Sasha. A big win (like bp, actor, script) from any of the remaining critics’ groups pushes it right back into the top. LA would have more impact than Boston, of course.
I still think that the critics will line up behind The Artist or Hugo – if they stray to a non-movie movie, I have a feeling they may jump on the more daring, like Tree of Life, or get behind a lesser player, like Tattoo or Shame. One that’s getting tremendously glowing rave reviews up here is Margin Call, which is a surprise.
The same logic applies to Moneyball, Sasha. A big win (like bp, actor, script) from any of the remaining critics’ groups pushes it right back into the top. LA would have more impact than Boston, of course.
I still think that the critics will line up behind The Artist or Hugo – if they stray to a non-movie movie, I have a feeling they may jump on the more daring, like Tree of Life, or get behind a lesser player, like Tattoo or Shame. One that’s getting tremendously glowing rave reviews up here is Margin Call, which is a surprise.