My fellow Awards Daily TV contributor Clarence Moye recently wrote about how much influence the Critics’ Choice Awards have over Emmy nominations and who stands to benefit from a win. Orange is the New Black’s Lorraine Toussaint took home the Critics’ Choice Best Supporting Actress – Drama trophy, which is a huge boost to her presence in the Emmy race since it’s mostly been dominated by Kate Mulgrew and Uzo Aduba.
But here’s a sad fact: Last year, Scandal’s Bellamy Young took home a win in the same category at the Critics’ Choice and failed to get an Emmy nomination. So it’s questionable whether Emmy voters will vote the same way as critics.
So who’s in contention? This is an interesting category this year since some of the contenders were in the Best Supporting Actress Comedy category last year, now that OITNB is a “drama.” Could some of the Downton Abbey mainstays get bumped for convicts?
Here’s a look at who could be nominated: Sissy Spacek for Bloodline, Maggie Smith for Downton Abbey, Lena Headey for Game of Thrones, Kate Mulgrew for Orange is the New Black, Uzo Aduba for Orange is the New Black, Christine Baranski for The Good Wife, Christina Hendricks for Mad Men, and Lorraine Toussaint for Orange is the New Black.
First, let’s talk about Mad Men. This is the show’s last season, which means this is the last opportunity to nominate Hendricks. And will they do it? Yes. Hendricks has been nominated in this category for the last five years, and Joan received a great send-off with some Emmy-baity scenes (her sexual harassment speech being a key one). She’s in.
Emmy voters will also vote for Downton Abbey, which also appears to be winding down toward a finale soon. Look for nominations for Maggie Smith and Joanne Froggatt since they are category mainstays (and Froggatt won the Golden Globe earlier this year).
As for Orange is the New Black, this is where it gets murky. Anyone on the show could win for Best Supporting Actress – Drama since there is a wealth of amazing supporting work from Natasha Lyonne to Taryn Manning to Yael Stone to Samira Wiley to (the list goes on). However, the actresses that people are talking about include Uzo Aduba, Kate Mulgrew, and Lorraine Toussaint. Without spoiling anything (although you’ve had a year to watch Season Two by now), Toussaint could get nominated since her work would be marginal in subsequent seasons; however, Uzo Aduba’s Crazy Eyes had a bigger story arc last season, so look for her to get nominated over Toussaint (plus, she won a SAG and was nominated for an Emmy as a guest actress last year).
Sorry, GoT fanboys. I don’t think Lena Headey is getting in. This has by far been Game of Thrones’ most divisive season, and while Cersei is certainly in a bit of a predicament as of late, there hasn’t been anything that memorable this Emmy season.
The Good Wife is an Emmy favorite, as is Christine Baranski, so look for her to get a nomination, probably the only one from a network show.
That leaves Sissy Spacek, and while Bloodline has received mixed reviews, it’s Sissy Spacek. She’s getting an invite.
Here’s the breakdown of predictions:
- Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black
- Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
- Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
- Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
- Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
- Sissy Spacek, Bloodline
Finally, I would be remiss in forgetting to mention Clarence’s passionate plea for past Emmy nominee Maura Tierney in Showtime’s The Affair, not a show that I’ve had the chance to catch up with yet. Still, even though it started the season strongly with the Golden Globes, the series overall has been completely ignored by three groups now – the Screen Actors Guild, the Critics’ Choice TV Awards, and the Television Critics Association.
I’m afraid it ain’t happening this year.