Producers Guild Preview and Contest

Back in 1994 and before that, the Producers Guild nominees matched the Oscar Best Picture five fairly well.  But since 1995 and onward, there has been at least one mismatch. Usually the end of December would represent the earlier part of the race but this year everything is smushed together even more tightly than it has been in the past. That would suggest that Oscar ballots would reflect the same temperature as earlier awards groups, like perhaps, the BFCA, or the NBR, or even the Globes.

This is the first year ever that most of the Oscar ballots will be turned in before the Producers Guild announces its ten nominees (January 3).  There are a few groups that offer up a top ten every year (minus various critics groups) and those would be the National Board of Review, the Broadcast Film Critics (or Critics Choice), the American Film Institute and the Producers Guild.  In looking them over all together there are usually a strong four, or three, or five that make it all the way through to the end.  And not every year can be measured the same way.

For instance, in 2009 and 2010, Oscar went with a solid ten. That meant voters wrote down ten nominees for Best Picture.  That probably allowed them to be a little more free, less PASSIONATE, with their picks as the sought to fill out the 8th, 9th or 10th blank. They could, for instance, go for District 9 and Winter’s Bone the same year.  But Oscar rules changed again last year so that members will now only be asked to name FIVE nominees instead of ten, which would then reflect PASSIONATE choices.  That’s the key difference. It reverts to the way Oscar voting for Best Picture had gone down since the 1940s when they changed to five.  The BP nomination process now is the same as it was for decades — except by expanding the category to include up to 10 titles they are allowing more of their PASSIONATE choices to be embraced.  That has sometimes resulted, if last year was any indication, in an odd assortment.  Such rules do not apply to the NBR, BFCA, AFI and PGA.  The Producers Guild still uses the same method Oscar did in 2009, 2010, each individual voter picking TEN nominees and not five.  That means, really, we only have last year to go on.  But I included the other years just for perspective’s sake.  2009 gave us a more disparate lineup than we saw in 2010 when everything mostly matched up.

Last year, the four films that hit all markers were The Artist, War Horse, The Descendants and Hugo.  Those would probably have been the nominees if there were only five – and then add in one more, which would have been a battle between Moneyball, The Help, Midnight in Paris, etc.  We don’t really know what would have been that fifth slot, but the new tabulation procedure allows for the cut off to happen at an point between five and ten.  So to figure out Best Picture this year, once we see how the PGA leans, we should be able to get pretty close to what the strongest four or five are going to be, and what the stragglers are going to be.

One thing to note, so far, the winner for Best Picture has always appeared on all of these lists.

Therefore, I will first take a look at the films I think would be the strongest five right now. They should all show up on the PGA’s list.  There are always going to be potential spoilers that haven’t shown up anywhere, like The Blind Side.  But for now, let’s go from the strongest to the least likely.

1. Lincoln, Argo

These two, so far, are the only films in the race that have hit every necessary awards group so far.  That means, they have the Golden Globe for Director (and Screenplay), plus a SAG ensemble nod, in addition to being on the NBR, BFCA, and AFI.  I would bet the bank that these two will be on the PGA’s list. They are both well liked across the board, and have both made over $100 million already, before Oscar nominations have even been announced — building on the strength of pure buzz and word of mouth and general interest in history, particularly American history where America comes out looking pretty great in both films.

Lincoln has the most going for it right now, even if it isn’t the hipsters pick.  It has broken the record for most nominations ever at the BFCA, broken Spielberg’s own record for acting noms at the SAG, and Golden Globe noms. It is now the highest grossing of all of the Oscar contenders for Best Picture. It has arguably the best lead actor performance of the year, and it’s arguable that Tommy Lee Jones and Sally Field also own their categories.  It is a timely, important film about a moment in history where everything we thought we knew about ourselves and our government was questioned.  Were we really about a country for free people? And if so, why did we enslave other human beings for centuries? Lincoln, the least passionate abolitionist (and never called himself one) ends up becoming president and must then pull a bait and switch on the pro-slavery population to get the 13th amendment passed.  Anyone with a knowledge of history and a thinking brain will appreciate this film for everything it does right, even if it isn’t “perfect.” I have no patience for people who wanted tap dancing bears or a meaningless plot in its place.  But I understand that there are many people who feel it is “homework” and not “entertaining” enough. Ain’t that America for you.

On the other hand, Argo IS that entertaining film that most everyone loves. Like The Artist and The King’s Speech no one hates Argo. No one can really complain about it and many people, including critics and the public, love it. It is about an important historical event — America working with Canada to free hostages — and blends humor, suspense, and emotion. Of all of the Best Picture contenders it has the least amount of controversy associated with it — part of the reason is that no one yet sees it as a threat. And that would be a huge mistake.  Once you become a threat to win you are a target and Argo has mostly escaped the wrath of rival studios so far. It is the classic example of a film flying under the radar, riding in Lincoln’s shadow and waiting for the moment when a consensus vote might deliver upon it the big win.  Like Lincoln, Argo’s screenplay is in the adapted category.  In Oscar old school, Argo might win the top two prizes and then Lincoln would win the three acting prizes.  But we just don’t know enough yet to make that call.

2. Zero Dark Thirty sitting pretty and sure to be nominated with a potential to win is Kathryn Bigelow’s embattled Zero Dark Thirty, an unquestioningly brilliant film that has now seen more attacks on it from all sides than I have ever seen a Best Picture contender endure. The ruckus is really a marvel to behold. That tells me people are very very afraid of its power.  Zero Dark Thirty has two major strikes against it that have nothing to do with torture or the quality of the film itself.  1) No SAG ensemble nod. No film in about 15 years (not counting this year and their first year) has ever won without it.  The studio says they didn’t get the DVD the SAG members in time but so far that explanation has never overcome the rarity a Best Picture win without it.  People will say that the screwy date changes mean a late-beaking movie like Zero Dark Thirty or Django Unchained couldn’t have been put in front of SAG voters in time. And that is possibly true, too. We won’t know until this thing lumbers to a close. 2) Bigelow and Boal won very recently, in 2009. It is extremely rare, like Chariots of Fire rare, like Driving Miss Daisy rare, that a director can win both Director and Picture so soon after having just won.  People will say, well no woman ever won before and that’s also true.  To predict Zero Dark Thirty to win is a long shot, however, simply because of these two factors. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen, just that it’s the long call which may or may not pay off.

3. Silver Linings Playbook has hit almost every marker, too, except the Globe nod for Director. And it’s true that only one film ever in Globe/Oscar history has won Best Picture from the Musical/Comedy section without that nod (Driving Miss Daisy again). It has a SAG ensemble nod, and a very strong lead performance carrying it through.  It is a longer shot to win than Zero Dark Thirty, however, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. Never underestimate the power of Weinstein Co. and it’s just the kind of film that could upset in both the musical/comedy category at the Globes and the SAG ensemble award.

4. Les Miserables – the bad reviews and divisive reactions for this film have put it pretty far down the list, simply because no musical has ever won Best Picture without that crucial Globes director’s nod. Again, precedents were meant to be broken and so it’s not impossible, it just isn’t likely. If it wins the SAG ensemble award it could possibly have a better shot at winning but it is a film people either really love or really hate and those kind of movies do not win Best Picture in a consensus vote.

5. Beasts of the Southern Wild and Django Unchained appear to be the films that most likely would have taken that fifth slot if there were still only Five Best Picture nominees.  That’s going by what we see so far.  Beasts was entirely shut out of the Golden Globes, which shocked many, but as you can see, it is still hitting these top ten lists among American critics fairly strongly.  There is only one movie so far that has had the first three of these and missed out on Best Picture and that was The Town. Dragon Tattoo had three but it had the PGA (and the DGA, come to that).  That means both of these films, or at least one of them, would be among the final five if there were five and most likely both will get in with more than five.

6. Moonrise Kingdom and Life of Pi – these two films I think will each carry over to the PGA. Scott Rudin is on Moonrise and Life of Pi is making shitloads of money right now, a testament to its mass appeal. I think both get in for PGA and both get in for Best Picture.

For the Producers Guild that leaves us only one slot left and plenty of options. Those options would be one of the following:

The Dark Knight Rises
Skyfall
Looper
Brave
Flight

It could be any of these and I have no idea which one it will be.  But I think I’ll go with Nolan, with Flight as a possible spoiler.

I will anxiously await January 3rd to see if my formula for predicting these will succeed or fail. If you’re keeping track, my predictions would then be:

Lincoln
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
Life of Pi
The Dark Knight Rises
Alt. Flight

NBR | BFCA | AFI | Producers Guild | Best Picture

2011 NBR | BFCA | AFI | Producers Guild | Best Picture

2010 NBR | BFCA | AFI | Producers Guild | Best Picture

*AFI special award

2009 NBR | BFCA | AFI | Producers Guild | Best Picture

***

JUST Producers Guild
Won PGA | Won Oscar

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

EXACT MATCH

1993

EXACT MATCH

1992

1991

1990

1989