The Golden Globes used to be an independent group separate from the film critics and their hive mind. They used to exist outside the bubble in a sense, though they always responded more or less to group think it wasn’t as set in stone as it is today.
Most of their winners tracked alongside the punditry at Gold Derby (owned by Jay Penske, along with the Golden Globes and all of the trades like Variety, the Hollywood Reporter, Indiewire, Deadline, and Rolling Stone). The only tiny rebellion was Hamnet defeating Sinners in Best Drama, though several pundits had predicted it.
Sinners winning something would have made all of them feel less guilty about going ass over elbow – in full-blown mass formation psychosis — for One Battle After Another. They could say, See, we’re not racists. We didn’t just pick the “one nice white guy” movie about racism. We also picked the (much better) movie about racism — real racism, of the Jim Crow kind. But not even really about that. Sinners is much deeper – it’s just that it doesn’t virtue signal for the ruling elite who run Hollywood.
If Ryan Coogler had won Screenplay or if it had won Picture, maybe they could sleep at night knowing all’s fair in love and “woke.” But alas, ’twas not to be. Hamnet won, and honestly, I should have seen that coming. I fell for the dampening response to it via social media, where the OBAA bros were dumping on it for daring to stand between them and their chosen movie’s victory.
But Hamnet is deeply movin,g and emotion sometimes drives the vote, or can, especially on a preferential ballot. Hamnet could benefit from a house divided between One Battle and Sinners. Although a preferential ballot doesn’t respond to split votes. It responds to what sits higher on the ballot overall.
For instance, Nomadland in 2020 was all over the ballot in the experiment I did. It was 1, 2, 3, 4 – it was everywhere because goodwill came along with it. Even if it wasn’t the favorite, voters wanted to see it do well.
But One Battle winning Director and Screenplay shows these voters really, really liked that movie more than any other. Thus, Hamnet is likely not as big a threat to derail THE FRONTRUNNER. The question is whether this is Argo (wins everything without breaking a sweat – DGA/PGA/SAG/Oscar) or whether it’s La La Land – wins almost everything, then loses in the final act – DGA/PGA).
If anything other than One Battle wins the SAG ensemble, then you know there is a possibility for a Moonlight-like scenario to play out. But if it wins the SAG, which it probably will, then stick a fork in it. And so it will be written. And so it will be done.
The frontrunners now feel locked and loaded:
Picture/Director/Adapted Screenplay – One Battle After Another
Actress – Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Actor – Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Then things get a little trickier with Supporting Actor and Actress. With Jacob Elordi winning the Critics Choice and now, Stellan Skarsgard winning the Globe, though not nominated for the SAG, we could have a wide-open race there. But if Benicio Del Toro wins the SAG it’s probably a done deal.
Supporting Actress was given to Teyana Taylor over Amy Madigan, which isn’t that surprising considering these newbie voters have no sentimental value for Madigan. What do they care? Also, note to self: they are not fans of horror. They might not have thought Weapons was “serious” enough.
If Taylor wins the SAG, that’s it. But if Madigan does, then she might take it all the way.
Original Screenplay will still be designated for Sinners, I think, although who ever knows anymore.
Now, the question becomes since Hamnet won Picture, does it become competitive for Adapted Screenplay (an award it deserves)?
I will confess that I watched the show on mute because it’s far less stressful that way. I can catch up with the speeches I want to watch on YouTube. I was happy to see Hamnet win even if I was rooting for Sinners if, for no other reason, to provide a real challenge to THE FRONTRUNNER.
But who knows, maybe Hamnet can be that threat. I did write about that a while back, referencing Shakespeare in Love and Saving Private Ryan. Those were the pre-preferential ballot days, however. One Battle probably wins on the first round, I’m guessing, so no recount.
The Golden Globes are not what they once were and probably never will be. Then again, film awards in general have changed. Had they awarded Sinners, they might have shown the American public that they still have one foot in the business of Hollywood and those who buy tickets, but in giving Sinners the Box Office award, it only served to highlight just how cut off Hollywood has become and how inside the bubble it all is now.
Opting out of Sinners, one competitive award of the night, and keeping in things no one really cared to see was a mistake, I thought. It was adding insult to injury for the fans who tuned in to see if Sinners would win. I don’t know what the ratings will be — perhaps the Chalamet/Jenner pairing will have drawn eyeballs.
And that, as they say, is that.
