Predictions Friday – Predicting the National Board of Review

Best Picture this year is, so far, a mystery. The combination of this being a crazy year overall and being after the year where the frontrunner out of Telluride was upended by a surprise in the final act (like, literally, there has never been a surprise like THAT in the Oscar race) has made many a bit gun-shy when it comes to predicting, or even having any idea where this race is going. There isn’t one favorite that people seem to be rallying behind in the same way they did La La Land last year. That makes me think we might be headed into a year where one movie wins everything. I could be wrong, but generally the films that surprise and win in a split year tend to win in response to a frontrunner. So far, Dunkirk is really the only frontrunner of sorts that has emerged but it isn’t being touted as such, the way that La La Land or The Revenant all were. Once a film starts winning it might be too hot to slow down and could just take the whole season.

The National Board of Review and (to a slightly lesser extent) the New York Film Critics Circle have a really strong advantage to shift the Oscar race. In just a few short weeks we will have a much clearer picture of what films lots and lots of people like. The winner of the National Board of Review has gone on to a Best Picture nomination in all but two times since 2000 (Quills and A Most Violent Year). In the same period, only twice has the NBR winner gone on to win Best Picture: No Country for Old Men and Slumdog Millionaire — both films ended up sweeping nearly everything.

Some years the NBR has really given a big boost to a movie that some might have hovered on the fringe about, like Hugo — remember how that got turned around? It surely helped Mad Max: Fury Road in 2015 and Her in 2013.

There is a pretty good chance that what they pick for Best Picture could be a strong contender at the Oscars for other categories, like Best Director. This is not always true, of course, but more likely than not. The NBR an important award because it sounds important and it looks good on ads. Critics awards can sometimes have the opposite effect: voters don’t like the movie if the critics like it too much. But that doesn’t appear to have been the case with the NBR over the years.

The NBR has a top ten films list and they also have a top ten “independent” films. Generally, these lists are different from one another. They do five documentaries and five foreign films, along with a single winner for animation, ensemble, foreign language, breakthrough performance, and the usual top categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting, Adapted and Original Screenplay.

Last year, Manchester by the Sea won Picture, Actor and Screenplay, while Barry Jenkins won Best Director for Moonlight. In the past three years, they’ve split picture and director, with the last one winning both being Spike Jonze for Her, and Kathryn Bigelow with Zero Dark Thirty before that and Martin Scorsese for Hugo before that. It’s worth noting that whenever a film has won both Picture and Director it earns an Oscar Best Picture nomination at the very least.

Last year, only six out of their top 10 earned Best Picture nominations, seven with their winner, Manchester by the Sea. That’s about as good as it gets in terms of matching the Oscars. Amy Adams won for Arrival and missed a Best Actress nomination at the Oscars, but all the other acting winners got in.

So, how do we think it will go? I really don’t know, but I would take a wild guess that a few films rise to prominence and solidify their presence in the race. I would imagine they would be the usual suspects — the ones we’re all predicting. I would love nothing more than to see Dee Rees’ masterful Mudbound rise with major category wins, but I suspect the film directed by a woman that might do better is Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird — that could actually win the top prize and win Best Director. I don’t think I have the guts to predict it, but if we’re talking about the two women who have a shot at the top prizes so far this year, as AwardsWatch’s Erik Anderson pointed out on Twitter, Lady Bird has the momentum in terms of what kinds of people like the movie, how the reviews are going, how the money is going. Lady Bird is a success no matter how you slice it and it will be rewarded for that success all along the way. Mudbound must be the latest film to overcome the Netflix brand that have critics with their knickers in a twist. I’m so done with this debate, because it reminds me of the debates we’ve had over the years any time there is a major shift with media. Nothing lasts forever, my friends. Life is change. If you live in a big city, you have access to your perfect theater to see films in an ideal setting. If you don’t, you have to wait months and months. Why punish the majority to serve the minority?

Either way, that is a debate that will not be settled this year. Herewith, our predictions:

Best Picture
Three Billboards — Clarence Moye, Marshall Flores
Dunkirk — Sasha Stone
Lady Bird — Jazz Tangcay
Call Me By Your Name — Ryan Adams

Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk — Stone, Moye, Flores, Tangcay
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water — Adams

Best Actor
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour — Stone, Flores, Moye, Tangcay
Timothee Chalamet, Lady Bird — Adams

Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water — Stone, Adams, Flores
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird — Moye

Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project – Moye, Tangcay, Adams
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards – Stone, Flores

I think there is always the chance The Post could come in and take Picture, Director, and Actress. Top ten films might include Wonder Woman or Blade Runner 2049. Heck, Best Director might surprise and be Denis Villeneuve for Blade Runner – you just never know. Either way, we’ll find out Tuesday.

As for regular Oscar predictions, here is my updated list:

Best Picture
1. Dunkirk
2. Get Out
3. The Shape of Water
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. The Post
6. Lady Bird
7. The Florida Project
8. Darkest Hour
9. Call Me By Your Name
10. Mudbound

Best Actor
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Timothee Chalame, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post

Strongest challengers:
Andrew Garfield, Breathe
Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.
James Franco, Disaster Artist

Longer shots:
Christian Bale, Hostiles
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Algee Smith, Detroit
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Matt Damon, Downsizing
Sam Elliot, The Hero
Harry Dean Stanton, Lucky

Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Meryl Streep, The Post
Soairse Ronan, Lady Bird

Strongest challengers:
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

Longer shots:
Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Brooklynn Prince, The Florida Project
Jennifer Lawrence, mother!
Cynthia Nixon, A Quiet Passion
Rosamund Pike, Hostiles
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die
Nicole Kidman, The Beguiled
Florence Pugh, Lady Macbeth
Salma Hayek, Beatriz at Dinner

Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Bob Odinkirk, The Post

Strongest challengers:
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water
Mark Rylance, Dunkirk

Longer shots:
Garett Hedlund, Mudbound
Jason Clark, Mudbound
Harrison Ford, Blade Runner 2049
Idris Elba, Molly’s Game
Anthony Mackie, Detroit
John Boyega, Detroit

Supporting Actress
Alison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, THe Shape of Water
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing

Strongest challengers:
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Kristen Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Betty Gabriel, Get Out
Carey Mulligan, Mudbound

Longer shots:
Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
Jennifer Ehle, A Quiet Passion

Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Guillermo Del Toro, Shape of Water
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards

Strongest challengers:
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Dee Rees, Mudbound

Longer shots:
Valerie Dayton and Jonathan Faris, Battle of the Sexes
Scott Cooper, Hostiles
Alexander Payne, Downsizing
Angelina Jolie, First They Killed My Father
Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit
Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled

Original Screenplay
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Martin McDonaugh
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water, Guillermo Del Toro
The Post, Liz Hannah and Josh Singer

Strongest challengers:
Darkest Hour, Anthony McCarten
The Big Sick, Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani
The Florida Project, Sean Baker
Dunkirk, Christopher Nolan
Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson
Battle of the Sexes, Simon Beaufoy
Downsizing, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor
Detroit, Mark Boal

Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name, James Ivory
Mudbound, Dee Rees and Virgil Williams
Molly’s Game, Aaron Sorkin
Wonderstruck, Brian Selznick
The Disaster Artist, Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber

Editing
Dunkirk
The Post
Three Billboards
Get Out
Shape of Water

Strongest Challengers
Darkest Hour
Blade Runner 2049

Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Post
Darkest Hour
Call Me By Your Name

Strongest challengers:
Mudbound
Shape of Water

Production Design
Phantom Thread
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Post
Shape of Water

Sound Mixing
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
Detroit
War for the Planet of the Apes
The Last Jedi

Sound Editing
Dunkirk
War for the Planet of the Apes
Last Jedi

Costume Design
Phantom Thread
Beauty and the Beast
The Post
Shape of Water
Blade Runner 2049