We’re trying something new here at Awards Daily that we’ve never done. We’re starting the contests early and you can have bragging rights for knowing best how the NBR will go. They announce on Thursday, so enter now . I’ve added the animated feature category as well because it isn’t a guarantee it will be Wall-E – it might be Waltz with Bashir.
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UpComing
From film-releases.comNovember 20
Broken Embraces - Penelope Cruz, Director: Pedro Almodovar, (Sony Classics)
Twilight Saga: New Moon - Robert Pattinson, Kristen Stewart, D: Chris Weitz, (Summit)November 25
The Fantastic Mr. Fox - Voices of George Clooney, Cate Blanchett, Meryl Streep, Bill Murray, W: Wes Anderson, Noah Baumbach, D: Wes Anderson
The Road - Viggo Mortensen, Charlize Theron, Director: John Hillcoat, (Weinstein Co.)
The Princess and the Frog-- Animated, Director: Ron Clements, John Musker, (Disney)November 27
Brooklyn's Finest -- Ethan Hawke, Richard Gere, Director: Antoine Fuqua, (Senator)
The Private Lives of Pippa Lee -- Robin Wright Penn, Julianne Moore, Winona Ryder, Blake Lively, Mike Binder, Keanu Reeves, W/D: Rebecca Miller, Screen MediaDecember 4
Brothers -- Tobey Maguire, Jake Gyllenhaal, Natalie Portman, W: David Benioff, D: Jim Sheridan, Lionsgate
Everybody's Fine --Robert DeNiro, Drew Barrymore, Director: Kirk Jones, (Miramax)December 11
The Lovely Bones -- Mark Wahlberg, Rachel Weisz, Saoirse Ronan, Director: Peter Jackson, (Paramount)
Invictus --Morgan Freeman, Matt Damon, Director: Clint Eastwood, Warner Bros.December 18
Avatar -- Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Director: James Cameron, Fox
Nine -- Daniel Day-Lewis, Nicole Kidman, Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, Sophia Loren, Marion Cotillard, Director: Rob Marshall, The Weinstein Co.December 25
Sherlock Holmes -- Robert Downey, Jr., Rachel McAdams, Director: Guy Ritchie, Warner Bros.December 30
The White Ribbon -- Susanne Lothar, ulrich Tukur
W/D: Michael Haneke
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90 Responses for "Predict the National Board of Review"
Australia will be in the Top Ten of NBR . Count on that.
Top Ten:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Gran Torino
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
The Wrestler
Best Picture: The Reader
Director: Jonathan Demme
Actor: Richard Jenkins
Actress: Kristin Scott Thomas
S. Actor: Heath Ledger
S. Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
O. Screenplay: Milk
A. Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
So Wrong . Australia made the Top Ten and received word from the horse’s mouth. Thank you.
when is it this year? and do we know if there will be a winner separate from the top 10 again?
National Board of Review will choose Benjamin Button or Slumdog Millionaire as #1 film of the year. Australia might make it…because after all, isn’t this the group that put The Bucket List on their list?
Actress: Streep or Thomas
Actor: Penn or Langella
S. Actress: Henson or Tomei
S. Actor: Ledger
Breakout Actor: Shannon
Breakout Actress: DeWitt
Director: Boyle or Fincher
Best Acting By An Ensemble
Milk
Breakthrough Performance – Male
Dev Patel/Slumdog Millionaire
Breakthrough Performance – Female
Sally Hawkins/Happy-Go-Lucky
Best Director
Jonathan Demme/Rachel Getting Married
Best Directorial Debut
Courtney Hunt/Frozen River
Best Adapted Screenplay
Revolutionary Road
Best Original Screenplay
The Visitor
Best Animated Feature
Wall-E
Foreign Film
I´ve Loved you So Long
Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Actor: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Actress: Kristin Scott-Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long
Supporting Actor: Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, Doubt
Orig Screenplay: Rachel Getting Married
Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Breakout Actor: Robert Pattinson, Twilight
Breakout Actress: Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Finishing the Top 10:
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Revolutionary Road
The Wrestler
Ivan, you’re right I forgot about Sally Hawkins. She’ll probably take the breakout actress award
@ Alex – The Bucket List was Warner. Australia is Fox. They might conceivably put Australia on their list, but not at the expense of any of the WB contenders. They know where their bread is buttered.
Well, the NBR is New York Based, lest we forget. So stage actor’s Michael Shannon and Rosemarie DeWitt might have the extra edge here for Breakout Actor and Actress.
This bunch is very hard to predict because very few of them are real critics and most of them are well-heeled. The yearly fee the dues that they have to pay every year are now over $600.
They play their cards close to their vests. SO close I couldn’t really choose a BP. But not having seen BB, I think they might go with that, seeing as how they are all older…
For Best Actor and Actress I would say that it’s Sean Penn and Kate Winslet for both of her pictures. Neither of which I have seen yet, but the NBR is set up so they can name multiple films in the same year.
Yes, I guess Heath is Supporting, though they may give him a special award. Why? Because they can. They have that flexibility and they do make things up as they go along.
And Penelope Cruz would be most likely in Supporting for BOTH “Elegy” and “VCB.”
Everybody loves having Penelope there at their ceremonies. So I think that’s what they’ll do.
Ensemble would either be “Milk” or “Rachel Getting Married.”
And Best Orignal Screenplay would for sure be “Rachel”s Jenny Lumet.
I can not even IMAGINE what their top ten would be. Which is why I’m just making SUGGESTIONS to ADers instead of filing a voting ballot.
Stephen…”Everybody loves having Penelope there at their ceremonies.”
Why?
If the LOTR – Return of the King did not manage to be in the Top 10 I doubt the Dark Nigth will.
This group so hard to predict that even the most out-of-the-box choices don’t suprise me anymore. They seem to have a thing for Ed Zwick though (god know why…), so I’d bet on Defiance making their Top 10 if nothing else.
They are very difficult to predict because they tend to spread the wealth and many a times split director and picture.
Top 10
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Synecdoche, New York
Milk
Wall-E
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
The Wrestler/Frost Nixon/Doubt
The Reader/Revolutionary Road
Changeling/Gran Torino
Che/Rachel Getting Married/Happy-Go-Lucky
(but Che might be ineligible because they have a separate Top 5 list for Foreign Language Films I believe, yet they had Letters From Iwo Jima 2 years ago probably because it was an American film)
PS: “Stephen…”Everybody loves having Penelope there at their ceremonies.”
Why?”
Try looking at her and hearing her accent.
Here’s what I’m thinking:
Best Film: MILK
This has been really easy to call in past years; somehow, certain films just have that NBR feel. The Hours, Mystic River, and Good Night and Good Luck were all that way.
The problem this year is that several films have that “feel.” Milk, Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road, and even Australia feel like viable NBR winners to me. But I’m going with MILK because I foresee them pouncing on the Prop-8 zeitgeist.
The Top Ten:
MILK
AUSTRALIA
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
FROST/NIXON
GRAN TORINO
RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
THE READER
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
The Dark Knight won’t be n the Top 10. None of the LOTR films were
Sorry, hit the button too soon. Would delete the above if I could. Mea culpa!
Here’s what I’m thinking:
Best Film: MILK
This has been really easy to call in past years; somehow, certain films just have that NBR feel. The Hours, Mystic River, and Good Night and Good Luck were all that way.
The problem this year is that several films have that “feel.” Milk, Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road, and even Australia feel like viable NBR winners to me. But I’m going with MILK because I foresee them pouncing on the Prop-8 zeitgeist.
The Top Ten:
MILK
AUSTRALIA
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
FROST/NIXON
GRAN TORINO
RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
THE READER
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
THE WRESTLER
While I think AMPAS is ready to embrace The Dark Knight, the NBR seems more traditional in its thinking re: what is and isn’t an awards film. Based on its exclusion from their list, awards watchers will predict doom for TDK, and be wrong.
Best Director: Baz Luhrmann
They seem to like showy visual direction, and this award has often been a kiss of death for Oscar hopefuls. A Luhrmann win fits nicely.
Best Actor: Sean Penn
Their Best Films tend not to win acting awards, actually, but I think we’ll see an exception here.
Best Actress: Melissa Leo
The NBR likes their actresses venerable; just look at the last five or so winners. It’s amazing. Could be Streep or KST, but go with Leo.
Best Supporting Actress: Debra Winger
The like older actresses in this category too, and their “surprise” winner often appears here.
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
4 t3h w1n, all season long.
Best Animated Film: WALL-E
Duh. I don’t think they are quite artsy-tartsy enough to pass over Wall-E for Waltz with Bashir. Look for that at the NSFC.
Best Original Screenplay: RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
They like above-the-title type writers if they can get them, but there aren’t a lot of those in the mix this year. COULD be Synecdoche, but I doubt it. Rachel Getting Married fits the mold of their winners, somehow.
Best Adapted Screenplay: REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
Lots of very real possibilities here, as in Best Film. Revolutionary Road and Benjamin Button both have prestigious source material and apparently impressive results. I’m going with RR just cos.
Other categories for fun:
Best Foreign Film: WALTZ WITH BASHIR
Now HERE I could see it winning. No idea what the rest of the top five will look like.
Best Documentary: MAN ON WIRE
For real. New Yorkers, man!
Top Ten Independent Films: I won’t make a whole list, but we can expect to see Ballast, Frozen River and Happy-Go-Lucky there. Maybe Slumdog, the Wrestler or Rachel Getting Married will be there instead of the big list?
Best Ensemble Cast: DOUBT
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: Michael Shannon
What Stephen Holt said.
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: Sally Hawkins
Best Directorial Debut: Courtney Hunt for FROZEN RIVER
Or maybe Lance Hammer for Ballast.
Waaait, I notice now that last year they awarded a “Best Film” and then a Top Ten on top of that, for a total of eleven. So in our contest entries, should our pick for Best Film not be in the top ten?
ETA: Just saw AJ asked this near the top. No more internet for me today.
The Top Ten:
*The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Alternative)
*The Dark Knight -Yes they didn’t nominate TLOTR, but they nominated The Bucket List and The Bourne Ultimatum last year
*Doubt
*Frost/Nixon
*Mamma Mia! -YES, The Bucket List’s effect + Box office sucess + Plus: Meryl Streep’s body of work
*Milk (WINNER)
*Rachel Getting Married
*The Reader
*Slumdog Millionaire
*the Wrestler
Runner-up for Nominations:
*Australia
*Changeling
*Gran Torino
*Happy-Go-Lucky
*Revolutionary Road (I only put here for the release date. But the film has strong possibilities for being in the top ten)
Directing: Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Alt: David Fincher, the Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Actor: Sean Penn, Milk
Alt: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Actress: Meryl Streep, Doubt & Mamma Mia! (Usually they awarded an actor for the body of work)
Alt: Kristin Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight (If he doesn’t win here, this will be a huge surprise)
Alt: Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road (Maybe a la Casey Affleck. He’s a Broadway actor)
Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Alt: Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Original Screenplay: Milk
Alt: Rachel Getting Married
Adapted Screenplay: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alt: Slumdog Millionaire
Breakout Actor: Michael Fassbenger, Hunger – I really hope so!
Alt: Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Breakout Actress: Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Alt: Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Ensemble: Milk
Alt: The Dark Knight
Top ten:
MILK
WALL-E
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE WRESTLER
THE DARK KNIGHT
GRAN TORINO
THE READER
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
I know I said no more internet for me but just a quick interjection I SWEAR.
The NBR actually seems to have stopped awarding actors for multiple roles. I think the last time they did was 2003.
I don’t know if this makes a difference, but I remember the New York Critics not liking The Dark Knight. With the NBR being New York based, does that impact Ledger’s chances?
red_wine…Yes, I know that Penelope Cruz is hot! But, so are lots of actresses. You’ll never hear me say “that dog Kate Winslet…”. Therefore, my question about Stephen’s comment still remains unanswered…
The best picture will be:
FROST/NIXON
I have seen the list and the biggest surprise will shock your crickey off.
Alex–TDK still had supporters like Dargis in NYC, and if you average out the MC NY critics it still sits at 76. I actually have Ledger losing to Shannon, but that’s the only major award circle that’ll snub Ledger, I think. I have Nolan winning Director just because it seems to fit their liking of bombastic films in this area, and Collateral won BD.
I think Best Film will be Australia since the winner is always slightly left field, counter-intuitive ie. Letters from Iwo Jima. It won’t get much further though.
Drew, if you tell us Benjamin Button is not on the list I’ll slit my wrists.
“The Wrestler” for Picture and Actor, “Milk” for Original Screenplay and Director.
Why no one is predicting Meryl Streep as Best Actress for both “Mamma” and “Doubt”?
No “Frost/Nixon” in teh Top Ten.
“Gomorra” will begin the route for the Academy Award with the NBR choice.
Oh BB is there.
Thank God! I had my knife at the ready.
I think Australia will undoubtedly make the list — whether it deserves it or not.
Top 10
Australia
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (winner)
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Mamma Mia!
Milk
Rachael Getting Married
Slumdog Millionaire
The Wrestler
Director: Danny Boyle- Slumdog Millionaire
Actor: Sean Penn- Milk
Actress: Meryl Streep- Doubt and Mamma Mia!
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger- The Dark Knight
Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz- Vicky Christina Barcelona and Elegy
Picture:Doubt (NY based movie will get points)
Director: Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Actor: Sean Penn
Actress: Streep (Doubt and Mamma Mia and Dark Matter, plus she will be entertaining as hell at the ceremony)
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (NY stage actres)
Screenplay: Slumdog Millionare
Spill it, Drew.
Please tell me TDK is there Drew haha I can’t wait! or is the big surprise something like in bruges, just a thought
I understand that the performance of Blanchett according to what we have seen is very sweet on Benjamin Button, but the center is the protagonist Brad Pitt as Benjamin, I say this because justice must be done with the real protagonists female, as it never had in other years, example of real actors Kristin Scott Thomas, Sally Hawkins, who are the heart and bear the entire movie.
In particular I would like to put a new face on oscar and other prizes by merit.
I know that Cate Blanchett is a good actress and is loved by the academy but I want justice every year the same names have already exhausted this year to elect female great performances.
“The NBR actually seems to have stopped awarding actors for multiple roles. I think the last time they did was 2003.”
The last one was Terrence Howard in 2005, when he won for Best Breakout actor for Three films: Hustle & Flow, Crash and Get Rich or Die Trying
Oh , well the list is predicable with a few surprises. Not many, most releases of November and next month.
AUSTRALIA
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
DOUBT
MILK
RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
THE READER
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
WALL-E
THE WRESTLER
The 10:
The Wrestler
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Rachel Getting Married
Appaloosa
Slumdog Millionaire
Doubt
Best Film: Milk
Best Director: Fincher
Best Actor: Sean Penn
Best Actress: Meryl Streep
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz
Best Original Screenplay: Jenny Lumet (RGM)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Eric Roth (TCCOBB)
Best Animated Feature: WALL-E
“Nothing but the Truth” – isn’t this a group big into the first ammendment?
Doubt isn’t on that list for the contest, maybe something’s wrong with my computer.
But just wanna give a shout out to stephen holt, i love your youtube videos!
Don’t feed the troll, guys. Whether Drew knows something or he doesn’t, it matters not. He’s just begging for attention either way.
I mean, even more than the rest of us are…
Yes just begging for attention Gentle Benj. Not that the NBR is a big secret now. If it satisfies your curiosity then you will be glad to know that Milk is the #1 Spot and Penn is actor and well… just can’t go on.
But the little Aussie film made it somehow. Next the Globes
See?
NBR could very well give the breakout award to Ann Hathaway. If you think I’m crazy…look back at Charlize Theron in 2003.
I don’t think Robert Pattinson should get breakout male either. What about…
Dev Patel? Michael Shannon?
Debra Winger is not getting Supporting! Her role is small, and, I think the weakest in the film.
The Wrestler better be on that list.
I think it will go to either THE READER or REVOLUTIONARY ROAD. I wouldn’t rule out FROST/NIXON either.
Any other surprises on the list besides the dozen or so titles we keep shuffling around, Drew? You don’t have to name it. Just let us know if NBR chose a movie that’s not among the 13 below. (because these might be my picks.)
(*) The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Australia
The Dark Knight
Frozen River
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Revolutionary Road
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Synecdoche, New York
The Wrestler
(alt) Frost/Nixon
(& The Bucket List slot) Valkyrie
(why does my list look the Indie Board of Review?
ah well, no guts no glory, right?)
In such a close year, I think they’ll try to get something they like in to the final five. I’m betting on Rachel Getting Married.
Here’s your surprise ladies and gentleman…NO slumdog millionaire…u heard it here first (i could be wrong though).
The Ten:
-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
-Australia
-Milk
-The Dark Knight
-Frost/Nixon
-Defiance
-Revolutionary Road
-Gran Torino
-Doubt
-The Reader
*In no way do these predictions reflect my personal feelings on these films
Don’t aim too mainstream, guys. This isn’t the Broadcast Film Critics. It’s highfalutin NBR. In recent years, their Top 10s have included Notes On A Scandal, The Painted Veil, Syriana, Match Point, Kinsey, Vera Drake, The Station Agent, 21 Grams, Frida, Adaptation.
I’m trying to justify Frozen River and Synecdoche, New York on my list. I think NBR likes to have a couple of brainy art-house movies on their lists. We probably should be thinking about Vicki Cristina Barcelona too.
I saw Australia today and I can’t believe all the hate for it – the audience stood and applauded when the movie finished and for one LOVED it!
So this would be in my top 10 as well as
Dark Knight
and I haven’t seen anything else so will watch with interest.
I hope Revolutionary Road as that is the one movie I am really looking forward to. Hang my head -Twilight but that is just my fantasy movie.
Drew, you’re full of shit.
The NBR does not make up their list until the night prior to their announcement. This is the way it’s been done. A couple of years ago, they pushed back their announcement date a week the night before they were supposed to announce. I think the reason was that they had difficulty coming to a conclusion, but I’m not certain of it.
If you still think you’ve got a reason to argue against this, spill the whole list so everyone can judge when the list gets officially released.
Blake, you ARE CLUELESS
OK then.
So according to what you’ve already posted, you’ve seen the NBR list, and Milk won Best Picture and Best Actor, and Benjamin Button and Australia made the top 10. Is this correct?
Good luck, Drew. Either you’re right and I’ll be stunned, or you’re a fool that takes joy in confusing the hell out of people. Either way, I’ll be laughing when I see the list, because you just made this way more entertaining than it should be.
Last year they had a winner for Best Picture and then 10 runners-up as theire ‘Top Ten’, stupidly, so here I go…
Picture
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
- Australia
- Defiance
- Doubt
- Frost/Nixon
- Milk
- Rachel Getting Married
- The Reader
- Revolutionary Road
- Slumdog Millionaire
- The Wrestler
Director
DANNY BOYLE (SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE)
Actor
SEAN PENN (MILK)
Actress
ANNE HATHAWAY (RACHEL GETTING MARRIED)
Supporting Actor
HEATH LEDGER (THE DARK KNIGHT)
Supporting Actress
VIOLA DAVIS (DOUBT)
Original Screenplay
JENNY LUMET (RACHEL GETTING MARRIED)
Adapted Screenplay
ERIC ROTH (THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON)
Ensemble Cast
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Animated Feature
WALL-E
Documentary
TROUBLE THE WATER
Foreign Language Film
WALTZ WITH BASHIR
Directorial Debut
LANCE HAMMER (BALLAST)
Breakthrough Actor
MICHAEL FASSBENDER (HUNGER)
Breakthrough Actress
SALLY HAWKINS (HAPPY-GO-LUCKY)
I predict “The Reader” to win best picture, and Mickey Rourke for best actor. Kate Winslet should win for both “The Reader” and “Revolutionary Road”.
We shall see…
PICTURE
MILK
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Wrestler
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/ Nixon
The Reader
The Visitor
Rachel Getting Married
Australia
DIRECTOR
Gus Vant Sant. Alt: David Fincher
ACTOR
Sean Penn. Alt: Richard Jenkins
ACTRESS
Kristin Scott Thomas. Alt: Kate Winslet
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger. Alt: Robert Downey Jr
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Debra Winger. Alt: Marisa Tomei
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Slumdog Millionaire. Alt. Milk
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Alt: Revolutionary Road
Ensemble Cast
Milk. Alt: The Curiuos Case of Benjamin Button
ANIMATED FEATURE
WALL- E
DOCUMENTARY
Trouble the Water
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Gomorra
DIRECTORIAL DEBUT
Courtney Hunt ( Frozen River )
BREAKTHROUGH ACTOR
Michael Fassbender ( Hunger )
BREAKTHROUGH ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins ( Happy-Go-Lucky )
PICTURE
Gran Torino
Runners-Up
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Doubt
The Wrestler
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/ Nixon
The Reader
The Visitor
Rachel Getting Married
DIRECTOR
John Patrick Shanley – Doubt
ACTOR
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
ACTRESS
Meryl Streep – Doubt & Mamma Mia!
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Liev Schreiber – Defiance (Hey, it’s an Ed Zwick Movie, NBR loves those)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis – Doubt
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Gran Torino
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Doubt
ENSEMBLE CAST
Milk
ANIMATED FEATURE
WALL- E
DOCUMENTARY
Standard Operating Procedure
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Everlasting Moments – Sweden
DIRECTORIAL DEBUT
Courtney Hunt – Frozen River
BREAKTHROUGH ACTOR
That Kid From Australia
BREAKTHROUGHT ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins – Happy Go-Lucky
I think Milk winning NBR is making a lot of sense right now. Slumdog has smallness/masala quality, Benjamin Button has frigidity, Milk seems just about right. And Milk is undoubtedly the most important picture this year.
And in the past, NBR has not cared about reviews much, so I think Australia and Changeling might get in(provided that Gran Torino is not already on the list).
um, yeah, what Balesupporter said.
That looks good in the individual categories, except I’d flip Fincher and Van Sant as Best Director and Alternate.
Also, I still think wer’e all focusing on too many “major” titles, and forgetting how NBR always gives a nod to movies that most people between the coasts never get a chance to see until they’re on DVD. (see my comment #52) We need to be thinking what movie is this year’s Kinsey or Vera Drake for the NBR.
Balesupporter, since your choices look so good, I’d hate for you to lose out on a technicality. What Paddy M says is true. Last year there was a Best Picture and a Top 10 that did not include their overall Best. You’re owed one more movie in your top 10, I think.
I’ll ride along with those choices, except for the Director switch, and stick with my Top 10 above.
(Not really fair for me and Drew to participate since we’ve seen the future in our dreams
but seriously Drew, if you really want to blow everybody away, give us one more surprise that nobody expects. Michelle Williams, Best Actress. Something like that.)
Ryan, I only picked ten on my contest entry (see comment #40) because the NBR seems to change its mind from year to year about having ten or eleven films:
“The 10:
The Wrestler
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Rachel Getting Married
Appaloosa
Slumdog Millionaire
Doubt
Best Film: Milk”
If I get to name one more, then it would have to be The Duchess. No, The Reader. NO, THE VISITOR. Final answer: The Visitor.
BTW: The surprise that no one is expecting is Appaloosa, according to my crystal ball.
I had Appaloosa on my longer list of 15, Paul. Nicely crafted film, but I was looking for more of the emotional punch that NBR seems to like in smaller movies. I keep going back to their choices in recent years, and still feel like they tend to go for a couple of more esoteric choices. They usually have a solid British film too, so The Reader or Happy-Go-Lucky feel like good bets.
I’d be happy with just about any list suggested in this discussion. And I’ll bet that the NBR’s chooses at least one movie that makes their Top 10 look blemished compared to what you guys predict. (I’m still not over The Bucket List.)
Appaloosa is definitely a no guts no glory choice. If Allie French had been played by Kate Winslet, Cate Blanchett, Kristin Scott Thomas, Michelle Williams, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Halle Berry–hell, anyone except The Zellweger–the movie would probably be an Oscar contender and would pack the emotional punch that you find lacking.
At this point, though, it is an esoteric choice, given the rest of the field. And I’m thinking Slumdog Millionaire works as a solid British and an international pick.
Drew, tell me the Dark knight makes the list?
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Gran Torino
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Best Director
Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
Clint Eastwood for Gran Torino
David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sam Mendes for Revolutionary Road
Christopher Nolan for The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant for Milk
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Leonardo DiCaprio for Revolutionary Road
Clint Eastwood for Gran Torino
Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn for Milk
Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep for Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas for I’ve Loved You So Long
Kate Winslett for Revolutionary Road
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Josh Brolin for Milk
James Franco for Milk
Phillip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt
Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
Dev Patel for Slumdog Millionaire
Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams for Doubt
Penelope Cruz for Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis for Doubt
Rosemarie Dewitt for Rachel Getting Married
Taraj P. Henson for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Kate Winslett for The Reader
Best Original Screenplay
Burn After Reading
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Synecdoche, New York
WALL-E
The Wrestler
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
For the oscar and all other awards:
Actor: Sean Penn
Actress: Category severe strain in concepts but Sally Hawkins is in addition to Breakthrougth Actress, Best Actress, for best performance of 2008.
Another possibility Kristin Scott Thomas, these actresses are taking a great performance and the weight of their movies.
PICTURE
Milk
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis – Doubt
ORIGINAL Screenplay
Rachel get married
Screenplay ADAPTER
Milk
ENSEMBLE CAST
Milk
ANIMATED FEATURE
WALL-E
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Everlasting Moments – Sweden
According to Hugo, when it comes to major actor and best actress.
But best film Slumdog millionaire
Ryan’s right about the high falootin’ part of the NBR. But this much we do know, there is a really good chance that whatever film it is will be nominated for Best Pic. I’ll be doing a more lengthy piece about the NBR in the next day or so.
FILM: Revolutionary Road
Milk
TCCOBB
WALL-E
Nothing But The Truth
In Bruges
Slumdog Millionaire
The Visitor
Doubt
Rachel Getting Married
DIRECTOR: Van Sant
ACTOR: Jenkins
ACTRESS: Hathaway
SUPP ACTOR: Shannon
SUPP ACTRESS: Davis
Cate Blanchett, but good performance as always overvalued, compared with the other contenders.
I stay with the five contenders and finally were all movies
already premiered.
* Kristin Scott Thomas
* Sally Hawkins
* Anne Hathaway
* Meryl Streep
* Kate Winsl
- If this list is the dispute is among the top three.
National Board Top Ten (they are my favorite and best top ten list)
Best movie of the year? No one knows!
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
The Visitor
Milk
The Dark Knight
Wall-E
The Wrestler
Yes, Man (since Bucket List was on there last year, why not)
Honestly, tenth will be a Clint Eastwood film (’Changling’ or ‘Gran’)
No matter who wins the best of the year from this group, Sasha will put it on top of his most-likely-to-be-nominated-for-Best-Picture-list, but I have one word for him;
“Quills.”
Jerry is right. “Nothing but the Truth” may be the best journalism film since “All the President’s Men” and the NBR even has a special award for Freedom of Expression. I saw it watching the screener of an Academy friend who is voting for it in all the appropriate categories.
There hasn’t been a film to miss out on Best Picture that won the NBR since Quills. And Sasha is a woman.
Revolutionary Road
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Frost/Nixon
Doubt
Gran Torino
Slumdog Millionaire
The Wrestler
Rachel Getting Married
Burn After Reading
If the NBR leaves off Wall-E and TDK
To all those who forgot to put Wall E on the top ten; haha!
The Actress categories seem to be ballbustingly hard this year.
My picks? Sally Hawkins for Happy Go Lucky and Viola Davis for Doubt. Obscure shot in the darks, I know.
Are animated films allowed to make the Top Ten? There is an animated film category.
Best film: Milk
Top 10 :
Milk
Australia
The Wrestler
Slumdog Millionare
The dark knight
Frost Nixon
Racher Getting married
Gomorra
Gran Torino
Revolutionary road
I know one of the voters who actually knows a lot about film and she hated The Dark Knight, which shocked me.
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Gran Torino
Milk
The Wrestler
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Best Director
Christopher Nolan for The Dark Knight
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Leonardo DiCaprio for Revolutionary Road
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Meryl Streep for Doubt
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Kate Winslett for The Reader
Best Original Screenplay
Milk
Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire
[...] Dark Knight” — WB knows how to woo the NBR), while Sasha Stone has provided a space for your own predictions and a rundown of NBR stats and how they compare with Oscar through the [...]
Some brave NBR picks: Miranda Richardson and Rosemary Harris for “Tom and Viv.” Geraldine Page in “Trilogy.”
At least they haven’t given an acting award to Pia Zadora.
My predicted NBR Top 10:
Che (My NGNG pick)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Gran Torino
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
The Visitor
Wall-E
Best Picture: Revolutionary Road
Best Director: David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Actor: Sean Penn for Milk
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet for The Reader
Best Ensemble Cast: Milk
Best Adapted Screenplay: Justin Haythe for Revolutionary Road
Best Original Screenplay: Andrew Stanton for Wall-E
Best Animated Feature: Wall-E
This week’s nominations for the Spirit Awards and Satellite Awards might have gotten the ball rolling on the 2009 film award season, but Thursday morning’s announcement of the National Board of Review Awards is the first major precursor for this year’s Oscar race. Below are my predictions for this year’s awards, and their historical, statistical connection to the Oscars.
Best Picture
Predicition: Milk
Significance: For 8 of the past 10 years – and more specifically all 8 of the last 8 years – the winner of the NBR Best Picture has gone on to be nominated for the big prize at the Oscars. So, good sign. However, only 2 of the last 10 NBR winners has gone on to win Best Picture, those being American Beauty and last year’s No Country For Old Men.
Top Ten Films of 2008
Predicition:
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Frozen River
Rachel Getting Married
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
The Wrestler
But Where Is Milk?: Some years the Top 10 list is in addition to the Best Picture winner (totalling 11 films), and others it the 10 film list includes the winner. As last year named 10 films in addition the winner, that’s how I will format my prediction.
Significance: Of the 50 films nominated for a Best Picture Oscar in the past decade, 36 of them were on the NBR Top 10 list. If we only look at the last five years, 25 films have been nominated for a Best Picture Oscar, and 22 of them were on NBR Top 10 list. That’s all but three – There Will Be Blood, The Queen, LOTR: The Return of the King. Using the last five years as a guideline, if a film is left off the NBR Top 10 list, it would only have a 12% statistical chance at an Oscar nomination.
Notes: I think Frost/Nixon and Slumdog Millionaire are locks. To a lesser extent, Revolutionary Road is likely in that category. The Dark Knight should make the list, but the NBR isn’t the most superhero-film friendly of the precursor awards – last year they included The Bucket List. Ugh. Frozen River and Rachel Getting Married stand a great chance because they are the well-crafted indie-toned films that the NBR celebrates year and year. This same reason should help The Wrestler’s odds. Information about Benjamin Button is hard to come across, and it’s possible that the small number of screenings already completed won’t be enough to get it into the list tomorrow morning, perhaps suffering the same fate as last year’s late release There Will Be Blood. On paper, Doubt should be a masterpiece – an amazing story in the hands of acting legends – but advanced reviews have run the whole spectrum. After that, it gets quite tricky with a lot of films in contention. I think it comes down to The Reader vs. Australia, and while Australia got panned by some critics, I thought it was great.
Alternates and Possible Surprises:
The Reader: A legitimate possibility. In fact, it’s probably likely.
Changeling: The NBR loves Eastwood, but…
Gran Torino: This is probably the better of the Eastwood films this year, but it likely falls in the There Will Be Blood late-release category.
Tropic Thunder: Stranger things have happened.
Iron Man: Deserves it, but two superhero movies in one year is too much for the NBR to chew.
Wendy & Lucy: They LOVE indie movies.
Ballast: And they love drawing attention to less talked about fims.
In Bruges: Or reminding us what was good from earlier in the year.
Best Director
Predicition: Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Significance: For 8 of the past 10 years, the DIrector who wins the NBR goes on to be nominated for the Oscar. The two NBR winners not nominated for Oscar were Todd Haynes for Far From Heaven and Mike Leigh for Topsy Turvy. Of these 8 NBR winners who went on to be nominated for Oscar, half of them won Academy gold.
Notes: My first instinct is to go for Gus Van Sant for Milk because of the amazing performances he got out of such unlikely casting choices, but the NBR usually separates Picture and Director, and Howard is getting a lot of praise for his work.
MORE at my blog, PopCultureDeathmatch.net
I watch this guy for year, yea he do a lot of crazy stuff, but I know he is a really good and nice person. My boyfriend got his all best fights and we probably going to pray today and watch his in ring – so sad love you Mike.
Do you guy’s believe in Michael Jackson dead? I honestly not. His is a legend for me and I fan of his lyrics for a years . Even my kind’s love it, there is a big loss for us. I still didn’t believe in that, so sad.
I want to listen good music!
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