Top Ten Festivals to Oscar

Peter Knegt over at Indiewire asks the question, what are the top ten things the fall fests may tell us about Awards Season?

Here are his questions:

1. Are “Precious” and “An Education” the real deal? Knegt says you bet. [We agree.]
2. Can this female coming-of-age trend extend beyond those two films? Knegt says Fish Tank may be pushed to make way for An Education and Precious.[We say, it’s about time.]
3. Is Michael Moore still capable of causing a stir? And can this equal a best picture nomination? Knegt says, “My prediction: Moore still rouses the crowds, but its quieter than usual, and talk of a best picture nomination dies quickly.” [We say, Best Pic is kind of a long shot unless you factor in those who are still bitter about losing so much money this year – on the other hand, if a doc is going to be nominated for Best Picture it will probably be one with more emotional impact – we say this without having seen the movie so perhaps we should shut up].
4. Is Tom Ford capable of making a good movie? Knegt wants to say, “it‚Äôll end up a poignant tale of gay love and loss.” Thinks it might be too soon to consider it seriously.[We say, bring it on.]
5. Did ‚ÄúThe Road‚Äù‚Äòs delays actually suggest anything about how good it is? Knegt says it will do better but still not good enough [we say, well, that’s what they said about Hurt Locker and so far, so good on that score…maybe the whole push-back thing is the new in].
6. Will ‚ÄúBright Star‚Äù‚Äòs buzz translate Stateside? Knegt thinks it’s an uphill fight for this one. [We say, well, fanboys are louder than critics now and tougher to please with this type of subject matter – also, one feels a little dirty for even considering a film like this as a competitor, it being about Keats and all].
7. Is this really the year of Matt Damon? Knegt says, half yes, half wait-and-see. [We say, well, we already said].
8. Can Jason Reitman do it again? Knegt says he predicts it to be a hit at Toronto thus launching it into the race. [We say, Jason Reitman is hard not to like – and seems to be good at what he does. But lets not kill his chances with too much hype].
9. What film we‚Äôve never really heard of will all of a sudden be a major contender? Knegt says it’s better not to know. [We say, in other words, is there a Slumdog in the wood pile? It feels more like a No Country year than a Slumdog year but the waiting is the hardest part.]
10. Is the Toronto-Venice-Telluride trifeca still the awards launch pad it once was?Knegt says sure but the money might have an impact. [We say, Telluride? As always, it depends more on the movies and the timing than it does on the position and the festival – A No Country is a No Country is a No Country. It doesn’t matter where it comes out, its reception would be the same.]

Meanwhile, check out their poll on which film has the best shot at a Best Pic nod – so far, An Education is in the lead. I’m worried for the whole A Single Man and A Serious mix-up. Anyone else?