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Andrew O’Hehir’s “Early Odds on Oscar”

Ryan Adams by Ryan Adams
September 23, 2009
in AWARDS CHATTER
0

Salon’s Andrew O’Hehir sometimes takes time out from not liking very many movies very much to dis vague straw men with terms like “the attention-impaired elite of movieland.” O’Hehir often scoffs at film blog chatter about movies like Jennifer’s Body so he has an excuse to indulge in his own daydreamy speculation that Jenny’s Bod might just be “deliciously, sleazily awesome.” In the same way, this week Andrew turns his indie condescendie attitude toward tawdry Oscar and its followers, and lowers himself to the demeaning task of guessing which movies will make the cut for Best Picture:

Where the hell are 10 best-picture Oscar nominees going to come from? The Academy’s brilliant and/or desperate decision to double down for 2010 looks especially strange in a season that so far is bereft of either Oscar-friendly middlebrow hits or “Dark Knight”-style pop smashes with artistic pretensions.

First of all, “Dark Knight-style pop smashes” ? Doesn’t Oscar-dabbler O’Hehir remember that “Oscar-friendly” Dark Knight wasn’t even nominated? It was sort of a big deal.

What other types of movies does O’Herir think we need to fill 10 slots? “Middlebrow hits”? Does he mean middlebrow like Lost in Translation, There Will Be Blood, Milk, The Reader, Brokeback Mountain, Munich, The Departed? Or “hits” in the sense of blockbusters like Frost/Nixon, The Pianist, Good Night and Good Luck? Or “pop smashes with artistic pretensions” like Benjamin Button, Atonement, Mystic River?” aha! Pretentious smash hit, Capote! (hey, Andy, it’s possible to be artistic and not pretentious. Seriously, you should try it sometime.)

In fact, over the past 5 years, I can think of only two Oscar nominees that were a certified “pop smash,” two with overt “artistic pretensions,” maybe three that qualify as “middle-brow” films (none of which were “hits”) — and, no thanks, I decline the opportunity to name any of them because each one is adored by millions of people.

Anyway, see O’Hehir smirk at the silly idea that there could possibly be 10 films worthy of Best Picture consideration? Now watch as he simultaneously attempts to list which 10 films might make it. He chooses his 10 the the lazy way, taking 5 extra free-throw shots by naming 15:

  • “Bright Star”
  • “A Serious Man”
  • “Broken Embraces”
  • “Up”
  • “The Hurt Locker”
  • “Up in the Air”
  • “The Men Who Stare at Goats”
  • “Get Low”
  • “An Education”
  • “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
  • “The Lovely Bones”
  • “Nine”
  • “The Road”
  • “Inglourious Basterds”
  • “Star Trek”

Careful, don’t get run over by all the “smash hits” or step in any “artistic pretension.”

Meanwhile O’Hehir completely misses the boat on 15 other major contenders:

  • A Single Man
  • The Tree of Life
  • Avatar
  • District 9
  • The White Ribbon
  • Invictus
  • Where The Wild Things Are
  • A Prophet
  • Amelia
  • Lebanon
  • (500) Days of Summer
  • Julie & Julia
  • In the Loop
  • City of Life and Death
  • The Informant!

How many of those 30 significant artistic efforts does O’Hehir expect to be pretentious? (ok, I’ll admit I’m concerned about one or two myself.) How many middle-brow offerings does he fear? (alright, I see a couple of those too.) But if this is a selection Mr O’Hehir finds “bereft” maybe he should refrain from the sad ugly task of trying to guess BP nominees altogether.

Needless to say, I don’t know what the final list of nominees is going to look like, but I promise you this: One or two of them are really going to be from the moon.

From the moon? You promise us? What the hell does that even mean?

Still waiting to hear your thoughts on the “deliciously, sleazily awesome” Jennifer’s Body, Andrew. Stick to what you know, ok? Leave the Oscar stuff to people who enjoy artistically pretentious middlebrow smash hits like No Country for Old Men.

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Oscar Nomination Predictions

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Best Picture
  • 1.
    Hamnet
    95.7%
  • 2.
    One Battle After Another
    95.7%
  • 3.
    Sinners
    91.3%
  • 4.
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    95.7%
  • 5.
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    95.7%
Best Director
  • 1.
    Paul Thomas Anderson
    One Battle After Another
    100.0%
  • 2.
    Chloe Zhao
    Hamnet
    100.0%
  • 3.
    Ryan Coogler
    Sinners
    69.6%
  • 4.
    Joachim Trier
    Sentimental Value
    73.9%
  • 5.
    Jafar Panahi
    It Was Just An Accident
    56.5%
Best Actor
  • 1.
    Timothée Chalamet
    Marty Supreme
    100.0%
  • 2.
    Leonardo DiCaprio
    One Battle After Another
    95.7%
  • 3.
    Ethan Hawke
    Blue Moon
    73.9%
  • 4.
    Michael B. Jordan
    Sinners
    82.6%
  • 5.
    Wagner Maura
    The Secret Agent
    56.5%
Best Actress
  • 1.
    Jessie Buckley
    Hamnet
    100.0%
  • 2.
    Renate Reinsve
    Sentimental Value
    91.3%
  • 3.
    Cynthia Erivo
    Wicked For Good
    73.9%
  • 4.
    Amanda Seyfried
    The Testament of Ann Lee
    65.2%
  • 5.
    Chase Infiniti
    One Battle After Another
    52.2%
Best Supporting Actor
  • 1.
    Stellan Skarsgård
    Sentimental Value
    95.7%
  • 2.
    Paul Mescal
    Hamnet
    91.3%
  • 3.
    Sean Penn
    One Battle After Another
    87.0%
  • 4.
    Jacob Elordi
    Frankenstein
    73.9%
  • 5.
    Benicio Del Toro
    One Battle After Another
    39.1%
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