Oscar Ballots Mailed Today – FYC

And it has all come down to this. All of the movies, all of the reviews, the box office, the buzz, the publicity, the debates — the ballots will sail into homes in the next few days. Some of them will know what movies they liked best and tick them off. Some of them will take their time, making sure to see everything before they fill the sucker out. Some will call their kids, their grandkids, their nannies and their mistresses to help them since they haven’t had the time or interest to decide which movie they liked enough to jot down as their top ten.

Two things. The first, let’s go over the Oscar math again and second, I want to hear your best case for one contender. Not just one sentence, but a good paragraph on who should be nominated and why. Film, actor, score, animated film – your call.

Oscar math — I’ll be going over this in more depth in the weekly podcast that should go up soon but for now, let’s look again at how they’ll be shaking the tree for the ripest fruit. Here is the best article on it — Variety’s Timothy Gray:

Here’s a case study. The directors branch had 375 voting members (as of 2008). So the PWC mavens take the number of possible nominees in that category (five) and add one. That total, six, is divided into the 375, which yields the magic number of 63. In round one of nomination tallies, the PWC folks take all the directors’ ballots and count up voters’ first-place choices: Any contender who earns the magic number — 63 votes — automatically has enough for a nomination.

The PWC mavens then set aside the ballots of those members who voted for that director, never to look at the other choices, because that voter’s voice has been heard. (And it’s possible more than one director has achieved that magic number.)

Then the team goes to round two: They take the stack with the fewest number of votes, and look at the second choice, and redistribute the ballots among the stacks. However, if a voter picked a director who had already hit the magic number, they go to the voter’s next choice. For each round, they look to a voter’s next highest choice — second, third, fourth, fifth — so long as that director remains in the running and has not otherwise hit the magic number.

OK, you totally understand the nomination process, right? Good, because we will explain the final ballots, and then there will be a quiz (and, yes, I do take off points for misspellings and bad penmanship).

I am just deleting my own nonsensical reading of the process but also check out this Steve Pond article – which explains it all very thoroughly.

Everyone knows that I loved In the Loop and that would probably be my FYC – supporting actor for Peter Capaldi and Adapted Screenplay. But I hope that voters really consider The Lovely Bones. Of all the films released this year, it was, I thought, the most misunderstood. It’s a mishmash, for sure, but it is right in line with how a young teen in the 1970s would tell this story. It is a brilliant move, actually. Since I feel like I’m one of the few who lived through the ’70s as a kid I think it touched me more deeply than it probably has everyone else. It’s one of the best films of 2009 and if it isn’t at least remembered for score (Brian fucking Eno for chrissakes), Stanley Tucci for supporting (his best performance to date), and the lovely Saoirse Ronan. I know it will probably get shut out but what the hell. If one is going to piss in the wind let it be a real long hot one.