A Little No Guts, No Glory – Oscar Nomination Edition

Believe it or not, readers, tomorrow is the big day. It feels like we’ve studied this thing down to the nub. We think we’re pretty good at the game, but when never knows where a curve ball might be coming from.

You can look at my Oscar nomination predictions (and yours) here. You can also predict the top ten via my form if writing out full prediction is too agonizing. Only the full predictions will receive a prize. I trust the readers to help me count.

Let’s look at some possible last minute rallys. You may choose up to three No Guts, No Glory choices. Here are mine:
In the Loop for Best Picture
The Blind Side for Best Picture
Viggo Mortensen for Best Actor

Now, I have a bit more ruminating to do, after the cut.

There are some titles that I’ve been wondering about this morning. One is In the Loop. It just seems to me, that when there are ten choices to make, some people might just pick a film they really liked as opposed to one they think they “should” vote for. That makes me wonder if the funny, scrappy In the Loop might be a surprise contender for Best Pic.

The Blind Side is making serious cash. Why is it that we ignore this fact while showering Avatar with praise for exactly the same thing? People are enthralled on the box office numbers along where Avatar is concerned. Why wouldn’t they also be for this film? So, I would not be surprised to see The Blind Side turn up tomorrow as well.

The big question marks remain the fifth slot for Best Actress. Right now, it’s Brit vs. Brit – Helen Mirren vs. Emily Blunt. I think we can conclude the shut out so far of Abbie Cornish might be due, in part, to the kerfuffle with Reese Witherspoon and Ryan Phillippe. While this might seem stupid and gossipy, we do know that voters vote for whom they “like.” And they certainly liked Reese Witherspoon. So, you never know. I think it’s silly, personally.

The fifth Best Actor slot. If Viggo Mortensen were to somehow make the cut, which actor would get the cut? Do we really think, with all of the love there is for Morgan Freeman, that he’ll get cut for Invictus? Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker? George Clooney and Jeff Bridges are pretty much locked. The only reason I can see for them leaving off Colin Firth is if they just never bothered to watch that beautiful, haunting film. So we’re at a standoff.

An Inglourious inclusion in supporting actor. With the actorly love for Inglourious Basterds, it’s possible that someone other than Christoph Waltz might show up in the Supporting category. It probably won’t be Brad Pitt (but who knows). Daniel Bruhl would get my vote. I am personally hoping for Diane Kruger and Melanie Laurent.

The Avatar reach will be one thing to really watch. If Zoe Saldana turns up in an acting category, this race is over. There is no race. Cameron will win, Avatar will win and it will sweep the Oscars. It wouldn’t be the first time Oscar lined up with only the Golden Globes so anything is possible. I expect Avatar’s only weakness as a Best Pic winner is that it might possibly be excluded from the acting and writing categories. If so, it will have a hard road to the big win. The rules are different this year so no one should assume anything. But a nod for Saldana would go a long way towards cementing the film’s lead.

Conversely, if The Hurt Locker sees nominations in unexpected categories, like supporting actor for Anthony Mackie, or something like Score – that film’s popularity could be felt.

The race can change on a dime. That’s what makes it fun.