Only Causes Worth Fighting For

Yeah, stick a fork in Oscar race 2010. ¬†The Weinsteins win this round. But we have to entertain ourselves in the coming weeks – if, for no other reason, we still have at least three weeks before the Oscars finally roll themselves out, choose their winner. ¬†By then, we’ll all be exhausted of film awards altogether.

I remember there was a moment this race when it looked like the thing was done. ¬†I don’t think maybe people really grasp the uniqueness of this year’s race in terms of one film winning ALL OF THE CRITICS awards and one film winning ALL OF THE GUILDS. ¬†The King’s Speech failed to win a single Best Picture award — that has never happened, I don’t think, in the years I’ve been covering the race. It should have, by all rights, being a sweeping weepie, won the NBR and the Globe. ¬†TKS should have won there. ¬†David Fincher should have won the DGA. ¬†Everything is off about this year; nothing makes sense.

Meanwhile, the NY Times’ Nate Silver has readjusted his odds column to favorite The King’s Speech, of course, because we all know that the DGA is still the best stat there is. ¬†But add that to the PGA and the SAG ensemble and you have a film that can’t lose.

The King’s Speech cannot lose.

Not only can’t it lose, but it will sweep. ¬†Hannibal must do things to amuse himself, which is why I am still predicting The Social Network to win both Picture and Director. ¬†I figure, in a year when things have happened that have never happened before, why not an Oscar surprise? ¬†I would also say predicting True Grit to win in a surprise upset would not be out of the realm of possibility.

Here’s Nate Silver:

“The Social Network” is perhaps not a complete lost cause — and we’ll be examining some of the other factors that predict Academy voting over the course of the next few weeks.

Still, while it was initially looking like “The Social Network” might have the sort of year that “Schindler’s List” did in 1993, when it swept “insider” and “outsider” awards alike, a schism has emerged this year — and it’s one that favors “The King’s Speech.”

But check out his piece with charts and stats. ¬†Followers of this site have already seen these charts and stats. ¬†But I’ll roll them out one more time. ¬†What the hell. ¬†The Eddie and the WGA have not yet occurred and we don’t know how those will turn out. ¬†The King’s Speech was eligible for the WGA, however. ¬†Once the WGA happens tonight, and then the Eddie, we’ll readjust to see how it looks then. ¬†But for now, this is what it’s looking like.

I have two conclusions from this chart. The first is that the only film that won Best Picture with fewer wins than The King’s Speech is Braveheart. The second conclusion: The King’s Speech will win the ACE for editing. ¬†It kind of has to if it’s going to win Picture/Director. ¬†And I think it will.

[note]I am currently in Santa Barbara covering the Santa Barbara Film Fest. I hope I didn’t make any glaring mistakes on this chart. Please let me know if you catch any.[/note]