Zero Dark Thirty Takes Early Lead in Oscar’s Race for Best Picture

Buzz is a funny thing. Just because Oscar pundits think they know the buzz before the buzz starts, there’s no mistaking it once it gets here. Right now, the movie that has all of the buzz is Zero Dark Thirty, right behind it is Lincoln. Both films won three awards at the New York Film critics today. Steven Spielberg has never won the New York Film Critics award, not for Schindler’s List, not for Saving Private Ryan and not for Lincoln. However, there was a record broken today — no Spielberg film until now has ever won more than a single NYFCC acting award (Ralph Fiennes for Schindler’s), nor screenplay. Schindler’s List won three categories — Picture, Supporting Actor and Cinematography. Saving Private Ryan won a single award for Picture. So, even without winning Picture and Director, Lincoln’s wins at the New York Film Critics are something to pay attention to.

Lincoln and Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty. Without the white noise at play, I would say the race feels like its down to those two right now. When two strong movies duke it out for the big win, either the awards at the Oscars end up splitting up, or a third movie swoops in and steals their thunder. We don’t know what will happen yet but right now we have to go with what we know today.

A little bit later, we will post our National Board of Review preview and put back up our contest. But for now, let’s look at a couple of things. First, how often do Picture and Director winners at the NYFCC go on to win Best Picture and Director at the Oscars? Here is a handy chart. While it hasn’t happened SO MUCH in history, it’s happened more recently than it used to, which would bode well for Bigelow.

The Chart – New York Film Critics

NYFCC Director, NYFCC Picture | Oscar – Best Picture

*Also nominated for best picture
+won Oscar Director

What the previous winners, who won Picture and Director at the NYFCC and then went on to do the same at the Oscars, have in common is that they won virtually EVERYTHING (neither The Artist nor The Hurt Locker won the National Board of Review, it’s worth noting). No Country for Old Men, The Hurt Locker and The Artist WON EVERYTHING leading up to the Oscars. We will know this Sunday if Zero Dark Thirty is headed up that road if it wins, mainly, the Los Angeles Film Critics. If something else wins there, we have a real race on our hands. If Zero Dark Thirty wins, we have, possibly, a juggernaut that can’t be stopped.

Some other notes of interest:

Daniel Day-Lewis will likely continue his winning streak. He won, along with Tony Kushner and Sally Field.

Rachel Weisz, with the critical acclaim for her performance and her comely looks, she seems like a definite possibility to break into the Best Actress race.

Sally Field beating Anne Hathaway may be significant or it might not be; after all, the Academy is dominated by actors and they have different criteria for what makes a good performance.   Hathaway still seems like the winner to be beat, to me, unless voters hate Les Miserables. That she didn’t win today may be an early indicator that the critics didn’t really like the film all that much.

Both The Artist and The King’s Speech had early success at the NYFCC, so it’s possible Silver Linings Playbook will not be in the same spot as either of those two last year.

Next up, the National Board of Review and then on the weekend, the Los Angeles Film Critics.