Dr. Rob has once again built his sleek Awards Daily Simulated Oscar Ballot so we can get a better idea about the Oscar voting process. Each year we’re able see how the numbers shake out and study the inner workings of the tabulation system. Aside from the math (which we’ll pick apart later), it’s a good way to find out which of your favorites that go home empty handed came closest to winning. I can’t sum it up any better than Rob does in his instructions:
It’s that time of the year! We’re ready to do a detailed analysis of the Academy’s ballot process by running a simulation that replicates the complicated tabulation system designed by Oscar accountants.
Longtime readers at Awards Daily will already be familiar with the basics of a preferential ballot. Those who are not will soon catch on. In short, with as many as 10 nominees for Best Picture, a simple plurality vote count would be a sad method to determine a winner. (Wonder why? Recall the GOP primary, with a row of a dozen candidates, and look how that fiasco worked out.)
Visualize an extreme example: Say nine nominees each received 11% of the vote. (9 x 11% = 99%) If any of the nine films collected that last 1% of the ballots, it would win with a plurality victory — but what kind of Best Picture would it be if only 12% of Oscar voters thought it was the Best Picture of the year?
The preferential tabulation process is designed to always ensure that the Best Picture winner receives at least 50% of the votes. Details of the way this works are not easy to explain, but it will all become clear when you’re able to see the internal numbers stack up and the watch what happens during various rounds of elimination.
Each year we run this simulation to demonstrate how Oscar voting works. We think the best way to understand why the Academy does what it does is to be faced with the same predicament.
So now is your chance to vote as the Academy members do.
This year we will once again be using these results for our own Awards Daily: Daily Awards, in which you will later get to vote on all the nominations chosen by our community of readers and new visitors alike. The explanations will unfold with regular updates over the next few weeks. leading up to Oscar Night.
For the first phase, your instructions are very very simple:
“Pretend you are an honorary member of the Academy. You are asked to nominate films and filmmakers in their respective categories. Make your selections accordingly.”
Note: You’re not trying to predict what the Academy will do. We have a separate contest for that — with a terrific prize for the winning participant.
Here, you need only follow the same rules as the Academy. Choose the movies and performances and filmmakers in each category that you yourself admire most.
Only the films on the Academy’s Reminder List are eligible for selection. If you change your mind over the next few days, all you need to do is submit an updated nomination form. Your last submission in each branch will be the ballot we count.
We’ve made it as easy as possible by giving you a series of drop-down menus so all you need to do is click though the categories. It should take only a few minutes of your time.
UPDATE: Voting will be closed on 11PM (PST) on Friday 1/20.
