Can The Men of ‘Succession’ Break Into The Race for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series?

June 10, 2020

(Photo: HBO)

Will we see last year’s winner Billy Porter repeat alongside a handful of perennial nominees? Or will the Roy family’s fight for power help them rise to the top?

Over the past nine years, the actors branch of the Television Academy only really celebrated two types of leading men for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series. Actors in first season dramas have always had the upper-hand when it comes to building momentum: Billy Porter, Sterling K. Brown, Rami Malek, Jeff Daniels, or Damian Lewis. Voters also use the category as a way to play catch-up and honor performances for their final seasons: Matthew Rhys, Jon Hamm, Bryan Cranston, or Kyle Chandler.

What makes the 2020 conversation different is the fact that none of the top contenders fit into either of these categories. Many of the big names everyone seems to be focusing on are perennial nominees representing shows in the middle of their runs. Then there are shows like Succession that aren’t new to the conversation but have yet to be nominated in the acting categories.

So what will Emmy voters gravitate towards? Are we going to see five out the six nominees from 2019 nominated again? Or is momentum building for a surprising contender?

Succession

If Succession is truly the Emmy frontrunner, then we’ll see that popularity come to fruition in the race for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series. The second season became a huge sensation in large part because of the back and forth between father and son duo Logan and Kendall Roy, played by Brian Cox and Jeremy Strong respectively.

So far, both actors have won major awards for the second season. British actor Brian Cox won the Golden Globe proving that the more well-known, prestigious actor seems to be the early frontrunner and the face of the show. On the other hand, Jeremy Strong won the Critics’ Choice Award and is much more the favorite of critics and passionate fans of the show. As more and more people catch up with the second season, Strong’s performance stands out. From “L. to the O. G.” to the shocking final moments of the season, it was his moments that we continue to talk about.

But are we overestimating the chances of the Succession ensemble? As of now the cast has yet to even be nominated for any acting award by their peers. Not at the SAG Awards and not by Emmy voters in the first season. Has it just taken actors more time to catch up with the show? Is the ensemble too big for them to pinpoint their favorites?

Familiar Frontrunners

Overall, most of this year’s major contenders are the same names we have grown used to, and that shouldn’t be all that surprising. As new dramas failed to find traction in the drama series conversation the same actors and shows continued to captivate audiences and in some cases only grew stronger.

Billy Porter, last year’s historic winner, will go down as one of the best winners this category has ever produced. His Pose performance as Pray Tell, an aging, HIV+, emcee and fashion designer in 80s New York, was able to transcend even the staunchest of old Emmy voters, and his own personal story turned him into one of the best motivational speakers the campaign trail has ever seen. His performance in the second season was even stronger, but we at Awards Daily are all a little worried that Emmy voters will forget about Pose in such a crowded drama series lineup.

Last year, Jason Bateman was probably very close to winning his first acting Emmy. Instead he lost to the charismatic Billy Porter but still won a directing Emmy in one of the biggest surprises of the night. This year, as Ozark became a pop culture phenomenon that almost everyone binged as they hunkered down in quarantine. It’s the type of show that the actors branch could definitely go all in on this year and Bateman feels overdue for an acting Emmy. He’s been consistently working in television since the early 80s, and now he’s branching out to directing and producing.

Also working in Bateman’s favor is the chance that he very well might be the most nominated person of the year. If things go his way, he has the opportunity to rake in nominations for acting, directing, and producing Ozark and even another acting nomination for his guest performance on HBO’s The Outsider. Over the years, we’ve seen how much Emmy voters like these multi-hyphenate creatives from Phoebe Waller-Bridge to Bill Hader.

Bob Odenkirk is on his way to his fifth nomination for Better Call Saul as the season has earned some of the best reviews of the year. In fact, for the first time in the prequels run, it seems like the show has built up a kind of momentum it has never been able to before. Odenkirk is a well-liked character actor turned leading man and Emmy voters, and that’s the kind of trajectory Emmy voters have been trending towards. If this isn’t his year, then I would keep an eye on him for the final season.

It will be interesting to see what happens to the leading men of This Is Us this year. For the past three years, Sterling K. Brown and Milo Ventimiglia have been nominated side by side something costars haven’t been able to pull off in this category since NYPD Blue in the 90s. As the lead actor race becomes more crowded it’s hard to imagine that voters will bring back both of them for a fourth year in a row especially after SAG voters dumped the ensemble.

Complicating the conversation around This Is Us the season focused entirely on a growing splinter in the Pearson family as Brown’s Randall went head to head with his brother Kevin (Justin Hartley – who is now being submitted as a lead actor). It forced Jack onto the backburner and with that voters likely won’t nominate him for a fourth consecutive lead award. If the NBC team had decided to submit him in the supporting actor race (where he should have been all along), this would be a different story where he could have even been a frontrunner.

In The Conversation

Emmy voters realized they screwed up by ignoring Steve Carrell for six years on The Office. Since then he’s had an interesting career and a string of Oscar and Golden Globe nominations without ever winning anything. This year he’s eligible for two lead performances: here for The Morning Show and as a comedic actor for Space Force. On The Morning Show, he clearly plays a fictitious version of Matt Lauer. As a sexual predator reckoning with his choices, it seems like the type of role that will finally bring him back into the Emmy conversation, but are the polarizing reviews and mood of the country going to get in his way?

As one of the frontrunners for Outstanding Drama Series, The Crown should be taken seriously in all major acting categories. But just how popular is the new ensemble from the royal drama? Tobias Menzies joined the cast as a middle-aged Prince Phillip, a role that earned Matt Smith his first Emmy nomination two years ago in the supporting actor race.

Over the past couple of years, we’ve seen the actors branch go all out for their favorite shows and if that’s the case Menzies can easily be nominated. Still, it’s hard to imagine his performance standing out in the lead actor conversation. It’s not really Prince Phillip’s story, and his performance is easily forgettable next to the powerhouse duo of Colman and Bonham-Carter. But he is a new name for voters to become excited over, and the actor does have a lot of goodwill from the cult-hit Outlander.

Sometimes we see actors pushed into the Emmy race after a box office hit or major Oscar campaign. This year we could very well see Rami Malek back in the lead actor race for the first time since he won for the first season of Mr. Robot. After a breakout first season, Emmy voters quickly dropped the hacker drama, and they’ve never really liked Sam Esmail shows to begin with.

If the race comes down to name recognition and likability then Aaron Paul is someone to watch out for. He’s already won three Emmys for his time on Breaking Bad, and this year he is the sole lead acting submission for Westworld, a show that has already produced three different nominees in the race. Paul joined the third season as a love interest for Evan Rachel Wood’s Dolores.

Some of the other names that might pop up in the conversation include Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan), Al Pacino (Hunters), Logan Lerman (Hunters), and Ben Mendelsohn (The Outsider).