As the dust settles from the Golden Globes, it is finally time for us to debut our annual Awards Daily TV Emmy Tracker! It feels like the television season has just begun, however, as we enter March we’ve already gone through three fourths of the eligibility window. Clearly we are heading into a very different kind of Emmy season.
Our first round of predictions are clearly heavily influenced by the Golden Globes. Big winners like The Crown and The Queen’s Gambit are our unanimous frontrunners while winners like Jason Sudeikis, Anya-Taylor Joy, Jon Boyega, and basically everyone from The Crown lead our predictions as well. Other nominees like Ethan Hawke of Showtime’s The Good Lord Bird and Kaley Cuoco of The Flight Attendant have risen to the top just off of nominations alone.
Normally we wouldn’t put so much stock into so many early frontrunners. But look at last year for example. By February a majority of the winners had already broken through the pack like Succession, Watchmen, and Schitt’s Creek. The Morning Show and Euphoria had already premiered and never lost steam. This is great news for our early frontrunners especially in a season with so many uncertainties.
One of the odd elements of this season is the fact that we have no idea how many nominees any given category will have. Last year the television academy introduced their new sliding scale of nominees that led to anywhere from five to eight nominees in a given category depending on the number of submissions. How will that affect a year like this where so many shows halted production in the midst of the pandemic. Are we heading into a year where most categories will simply have five nominees? This won’t affect the race for Outstanding Comedy Series and Outstanding Drama Series however where both categories are locked in at eight nominees each.
Here at Awards Daily we have a strict policy to only predict shows that have actually premiered. With massive holes in the TV calendar, it’s led to some thin lineups like in the Supporting Actor in a Drama Series race for example. It’s also inspired us to elevate unexpected contenders that finally have the chance to breakout from the massive success of Cobra Kai to critics’ darling P-Valley.
Looking ahead there are plenty of high-profile premieres that have the opportunity to shakeup our tracker. On the drama front we have new seasons of The Handmaid’s Tale and In Treatment while the limited series race could potentially feature Genius: Aretha and The Underground Railroad.
Check out our full list of contenders on the main ADTV sidebar here!
Looking Through Our Tracker
As always, the guild awards have some of the biggest impacts on our predictions. SAG voters love for Bridgerton has helped the new costume drama jump to fourth place in our odds as well as multiple cast members, including lead actor Rege-Jean Page fresh off his SNL hosting gig. WGA nominations for The Boys and Pen15 have helped both sophomore hits land safely in the middle of their respective categories as well.
2021 is shaping up to be a huge year for Disney+. Last year The Mandalorian shockingly snuck into the crowded lineup for Outstanding Drama Series but this year the hit show is safely in second place as the only clear alternative to The Crown. On top of that WandaVision is proving to be a threat in the race for Outstanding Limited Series with the Marvel series proving to be the first (and currently only) breakout hit of 2021. As of now Kathryn Hahn might be able to bring the network its first major win in the main ceremony.
The comedy races are clearly the categories suffering the most at this point in the awards conversation. Upcoming seasons of past favorites like The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Barry, Atlanta, Russian Doll, and Dead to Me have all been postponed leaving gaping holes in our early predictions.
Beyond obvious frontrunners like Ted Lasso and The Flight Attendant it has led to some surprising predictions, particularly the resurgence of the broadcast sitcom. Black-ish is back in the conversation landing safely in our third place while the final seasons of Mom and Supersore found themselves in our top ten for the first time. New sitcoms like Kenan, Mr. Mayor, and even Call Me Kate are predicted across the board as well.
Our Early Frontrunners
If the 2021 Emmy Awards were held today this is what team ADTV would be predicting to take home the top awards. Surprising no one we think The Crown, Ted Lasso, and The Queen’s Gambit will all take home multiple awards. We’re also banking on past nominees like Michael Kenneth Williams and Kathryn Hahn to finally take home their first Emmys after decades of under-appreciated work.
The category most up for debate is likely Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series where two–time nominee Kenan Thompson is our early frontrunner. But Saturday Night Live isn’t exciting audiences in the way that it used to and this might be the category poised for a last minute surprise.
Outstanding Drama Series – The Crown
Lead Actress in a Drama Series – Emma Corrin, The Crown
Lead Actor in a Drama Series – Josh O’Connor, The Crown
Supporting Actress in a Drama Series – Gillian Anderson, The Crown
Supporting Actor in a Drama Series – Michael Kenneth Williams, Lovecraft Country
Outstanding Comedy Series – Ted Lasso
Lead Actress in a Comedy Series – Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
Lead Actor in a Comedy Series – Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series – Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso
Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series – Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live
Outstanding Limited Series – The Queen’s Gambit
Lead Actress in a Limited Series – Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit
Lead Actor in a Limited Series – Ethan Hawke, The Good Lord Bird
Supporting Actress in a Limited Series – Kathryn Hahn, WandaVision
Supporting Actor in a Limited Series – Jon Boyega, Small Axe
What are your early predictions for the 2021 Emmys? Sound off in the comments below!