I’m only going to say this once — well, okay, maybe I’ll say it more than once. There is a reason why the biggest movies are male-driven. I used to rail against this until the industry forgot just how great it is to watch a male-driven movie that isn’t superhero fantasy, not that there’s anything wrong with that. I have always thought that men were the default. Women love watching men, men love watching men. When you mess with that formula, it can be trickier. SOME women like watching SOME women. SOME men like watching SOME women. In general, though, a male lead tends to be a more universal experience.
Okay, you can be mad about the patriarchy. OR you can sit back and enjoy the man candy. I’m just saying! We’ve all been pent up in our homes for too long. Gen Z is having less sex. I mean, what harm is there in enjoying, say, Austin Butler’s thighs in a black leather pantsuit? I’m just saying. Where’s the harm? WHERE IS THE HARM?
JUST kidding (sort of) But seriously, the Best Actor race is, as usual, packed. That’s only if you go by the LISTS. The Oscar pundits are compiling them based on hunches. We go by what the movie is about, who is making the movie, and what company is distributing it. Just on those three things alone we can get pretty close to figuring out, more or less, how it MIGHT go.
The Best Actor race still drives the Best Picture race, even if it hasn’t been as consistent since Hollywood has suddenly decided it was smart to abandon THE FORMULA. But let’s stack ’em up anyway and see how it goes, with the caveat that we know it isn’t fair when you compare it with their female counterparts. They aren’t represented in the Best Picture race on an equal level. That’s just a fact. But considering the Oscars and Hollywood are collapsing now under the weight of our collective good intentions, I’m just going to table fairness for the time being.
The last two Best Picture contenders were films with female leads. That is extremely unusual. It had to do with ongoing efforts by activists to bring films by and about women to the forefront, and a collective effort by critics, pundits, and the industry to push non-male, non-white directors in the race. But again, let’s just table this. We don’t yet know if we’re still in the thick of our good intentions, or whether Hollywood and the Oscars will, in fact, collapse.
Here is how Best Actor has gone for the past 20 years.
2000
Russell Crowe, Gladiator++
Javier Bardem, Before Night Falls
Tom Hanks, Cast Away
Ed Harris, Pollock
Geoffrey Rush, Quills
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Chocolat — female lead
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon — ensemble
Erin Brockovich — Best Actress winner+
Traffic — Supporting Actor winner+, ensemble
2001
Denzel Washington, Training Day
Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind+
Tom Wilkinson, In the Bedroom*
Sean Penn, I Am Sam
Will Smith, Ali
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Gosford Park — Supporting Actress nominees, ensemble
Fellowship of the Ring — ensemble
Moulin Rouge — Best Actress nominee
2002
Adrien Brody, The Pianist*
Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York*
Nicolas Cage, Adaptation
Michael Caine, The Quiet American
Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Chicago+ — Best Supporting Actress winner, Best Actress Nominee
The Hours — Best Actress winner+, Supporting Actress nominees
The Two Towers — ensemble
2003
Sean Penn, Mystic River*
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation*
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog
Jude Law, Cold Mountain
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Return of the King+ — ensemble
Master and Commander
Seabiscuit
2004
Jamie Foxx, Ray*
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby+
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator*
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland*
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Sideways — male lead, Supporting Actress nominee, ensemble
2005
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote*
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain*
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck*
Terrence Howard, Hustle and Flow
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Crash+ — Supporting Actor nominee, ensemble
Munich — male lead
2006
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O’Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Best Picture Five:
The Departed+ — male lead(s), Supporting Actor nominee
Babel — ensemble
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine — Supporting Actor winner+, ensemble
The Queen — Best Actress winner+
2007
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood*
George Clooney, Michael Clayton*
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Additional Best Picture nominees:
No Country for Old Men+ — Supporting Actor winner+, male lead, ensemble
Atonement — ensemble
Juno — Best Actress nominee
2008
Sean Penn, Milk*
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon*
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button*
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Slumdog Millionaire+ — male lead, ensemble
The Reader, Best Actress winner+
2009
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air*
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker+
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Additional Best Picture nominees:
The Blind Side — Best Actress winner+
District 9 — male lead
An Education — Best Actress nominee
Inglourious Basterds — Supporting Actor winner+
Precious — Supporting Actress winner+
A Serious Man — male lead
Up
2010
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech+
Jeff Bridges, True Grit*
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network*
James Franco, 127 Hours*
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Black Swan — Best Actress winner+
The Fighter — Best Supporting Actress/Actor winners+
Inception — male lead
The Kids Are All Right — Best Actress nominee
Toy Story 3
Winter’s Bone — Best Actress nominee
2011
Jean DuJardin, The Artist+
George Clooney, The Descendents*
Brad Pitt, Moneyball*
Demian Bichir, A Better Life
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close — male lead, Supporting Actor nominee
The Help — Supporting Actress winner+, Best Actress nominee, ensemble
Hugo — male lead
Midnight in Paris — male lead
The Tree of Life — ensemble
War Horse — male lead
2012
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln*
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook*
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables*
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Additional Best Picture Nine:
Argo+ — male lead, Supporting Actor nominee, ensemble
Amour — Best Actress nominee
Beasts of the Southern Wild — Best Actress nominee
Django Unchained — Best Supporting Actor winner, ensemble
Life of Pi — male lead
Zero Dark Thirty — Best Actress nominee
2013
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club*
Christian Bale, American Hustle*
Bruce Dern, Nebraska*
Leonardo DiCaprio, Wolf of Wall Street*
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave+
Additional Best Picture Nominees:
Captain Phillips — male lead, Best Supporting Actor nominee
Gravity — Best Actress nominee
Her — Best Actor nominee
Philomena – Best Actress nominee
2014
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything*
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper*
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game*
Michael Keaton, Birdman+
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Boyhood — Best Supporting Actress winner+
Grand Budapest Hotel — ensemble
The Imitation Game — Best Actor nominee, Supporting Actress nominee
Selma — male lead
Whiplash — Best Supporting Actor winner+
2015
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant*
Matt Damon, The Martian*
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Spotlight+ — Supporting Actor/Actress nominee, ensemble
The Big Short — Supporting Actor nominee, ensemble
Bridge of Spies — male-lead, Best Supporting Actor winner+
Brooklyn — Best Actress nominee
Mad Max: Fury Road
Room — Best Actress winner+
2016
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea*
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge*
Ryan Gosling, La La Land*
Denzel Washington, Fences*
Viggo Moretensen, Captain Fantastic
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Moonlight+ — Supporting Actor winner+
Hell or High Water — male-driven, Supporting Actor nominee
Hidden Figures — Supporting Actress nominee
La La Land — Best Actress winner+, Best Actor nominee
Lion — male lead, Supporting Actress nominee
2017
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour*
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name*
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread*
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out*
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Additional Best Picture nominees:
The Shape of Water+ — Best Actress nominee
Dunkirk — male-driven, ensemble
Lady Bird — Best Actress nominee, Supporting Actress nominee
The Post — Best Actress nominee, ensemble
Three Billboards — Best Actress/Supporting Actor winners
2018
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody*
Christian Bale, Vice*
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born*
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book+
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Black Panther — ensemble
BlacKkKlansman — Supporting Actor nominee, ensemble
The Favourite — Best Actress winner, Supporting Actress nominees
Roma — Best Actress/Supporting Actress nominees
2019
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker*
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood*
Adam Driver, Marriage Story*
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Parasite+ — ensemble
Ford v. Ferrari — male-driven
The Irishman — Supporting Actor nominees, ensemble
Jojo Rabbit — male driven, Supporting Actress nominee, ensemble
Little Women — Best Actress/Supporting Actress nominees
1917 — male-driven ensemble
2020
Anthony Hopkins, The Father*
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal*
Gary Oldman, Mank*
Steven Yeun, Minari*
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Additional Best Picture nominees:
Nomadland+ — Best Actress winner+
Judas and the Black Messiah — Best Supporting Actor winner
Promising Young Woman — Best Actress nominee
The Trial of the Chicago 7 — Supporting Actor nominee, ensemble
2021
Will Smith, King Richard*
Bendict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog*
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick Boom
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Additional Best Picture nominees:
CODA+ — Best Supporting Actor winner, female lead
Belfast — male lead, Supporting Actor/Actress nominees, ensemble
Drive My Car — male lead
Dune — male lead, ensemble
Licorice Pizza — ensemble
Nightmare Alley — male lead, Supporting Actress nominee, ensemble
West Side Story, Best Supporting Actress winner, male/female leads
Now that we’ve gone through that exhausting list for completeness’ sake, let’s take a look at the strongest contenders so far.
Erik Anderson at AwardsWatch has his Best Actor predictions from May. They aren’t up to date and he has told me he is going to wait a bit, until we get more intel, to update them. But regardless, let’s look at his top five: at the moment
(In bold, my top choices at the moment)
1. Leonardo DiCaprio — Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
2. Brendan Fraser — The Whale (A24)
3. Hugh Jackman — The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Colman Domingo — Rustin (Netflix)
5. Song Kang-ho — Broker (NEON)
His next tier is, as follows:
6. Austin Butler — Elvis (Warner Bros)
7. Adam Driver — White Noise (Netflix)
8. Diego Calva — Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
9. Colin Firth — Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
10. Bill Nighy — Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
11. Michael Fassbender — Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)
12. Colin Farrell — The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
13. Christian Bale — Amsterdam (20th Century Studios)
14. Brad Pitt — Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
15. Micheal Ward — Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
16. Park Hae-il — Decision to Leave (MUBI)
17. Kelvin Harrison Jr. — Chevalier (Searchlight Pictures)
18. Gabriel LaBelle — The Fabelmans (Universal Studios)
19. Banks Repeta — Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
20. Daniel Giménez Cacho — Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths) (Netflix)
We still don’t know if The Killer is coming out this year, but if it is, I would add Michael Fassbender to this list.
Here are the two top contenders right now as I see them:
The Frontrunners:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Austin Butler’s performance of Elvis is astonishing. While listening to the soundtrack, I realized I’d been listening to Trouble thinking it was Elvis, but it was actually Butler. You can’t tell the difference. I just kept listening to it thinking, man, Elvis was so great. Then I actually looked at the track and I was shocked to see it was AB, not EP.
Butler’s performance is such a massive step forward from his work in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, it’s hard to believe it’s the same actor. It isn’t just the heat he brings to the role, which is significant (you can probably count on one hand those who could summon Elvis’ heat the way Butler does). He just has the spirit. I saw one woman walking out of the theater in sobs after the movie. You can’t get there unless we believe we are watching Elvis, and with this performance we do. He is particularly great as the movie goes along, which is how to bring in a Best Actor win. I’m not saying he’s GOING to win because there are many more contenders left to see. I am saying he does what a winner needs to do: intensify his performance as the movie goes along.
He goes above and beyond, mastering the voice, the movement, the look — everything. And still managing to deliver a deeply emotional performance — it isn’t just mimicry.
Butler’s work here is going to be hard to top, and that’s because a good amount of the Academy is still old enough to know Elvis, and old enough to recognize how great this performance is.
Tom Cruise, Top Gun Maverick
I know, I know. There is no reason to name Tom Cruise as a Best Actor contender unless, you know, you want to save the Oscars from total collapse. It’s not just that. It’s true that most performances nominated in Best Actor are like Butler’s — transformative. But there is something to be said, however, for what Cruise does with this role and, frankly, his career. Tom Cruise and Top Gun: Maverick right now are going to be credited for making the film that saved Hollywood, and doing so through old-fashioned, largely practical effects, big studio movie making. I am hoping the Oscar voters want to bring back the razzle dazzle of really big stars whose movies made a billion dollars for the joy of the public. This is more wishful thinking. I have been doing this job half my life. I know how it goes. But if we’re just looking at the movies so far, Cruise has to be considered.
It’s partly the box office, which can’t be denied (seriously, who was predicting Maverick would break 500 million domestic in just a month?). But it’s also the thrill of going back to the movies and watching such an enormous crowdpleaser as this. It’s a great performance by a great actor, what can I say. There is something to be said for this kind of thing. And come on, who doesn’t want to see Tom Cruise in a tux back at the Oscars? Help us out here, voters. Give the people what they want. FOR ONCE.
Russell Brand points out what Top Gun: Maverick does — it brings us together, unites us in a way that no other movie will. I think that matters. In 2022, when we’re on the brink of civil war, it matters.
https://youtu.be/SbIHWKer7v0
If the Academy doesn’t nominate this film for Best Picture, then they deserve every bad headline they have coming. We just need 800 or so to name the film number one. How hard can that be?
As for Best Actor, that will have to wait until we start seeing some of these movies. This Summer, however, we have our Kings.
