Tomorrow, we’ll finally get our last piece of the Big Guild puzzle. The PGA is one of the most influential groups, needless to say, because they also have ten nominees and they also use the ranked choice ballot to determine their winner. The biggest difference between the PGA and the Academy is, quite simply, ACTORS. There aren’t as many actors in the PGA, although there are quite a few.
Since 2009, we’ve been tracking the big guilds to see which of them is closest to what the Oscars will be. And the PGA wins, at least for nominations.
The PGA might be the closest, but we can still see movies that get into Best Pic even if they miss there, like last year’s All Quiet on the Western Front, which landed in a big way at BAFTA and then made it into the Oscars. This year, the BAFTA nominations are landing AFTER the Oscar ballot deadline, so it’s hard to know whether there will be influence there or just crossover.
Here are the films that got into PGA but not the Oscars and the ones that got in instead:
2022
Out: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Whale, Glass Onion
In: All Quiet on the Western Front (BAFTA)
2021
Out: Being the Ricardos
In: Drive My Car
2020
Out: One Night in Miami, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Borat
In: The Father (Globes + BAFTA)
2019
Out: Knives Out
2018
Out: A Quiet Place, Crazy Rich Asians
In: Bohemian Rhapsody (Globes + SAG)
2017
Out: I, Tonya, The Big Sick
In: Darkest Hour (Critics Choice + BAFTA)
2016
Out: Deadpool
2015
Out: Ex Machina, Straight Outta Compton, Sicario
2014
Out: Gone Girl, Nightcrawler, Unbroken, Foxcatcher
In: Selma (Globes + Critics Choice)
2013
Out: Blue Jasmine, Saving Mr. Banks
In: Philomena (Globes + BAFTA)
2012
Out: Moonrise Kingdom, Skyfall
In: Amour
2011
Out: Bridesmaids, Dragon Tattoo, The Ides of March
In: Tree of Life (Critics Choice), Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close (Critics Choice)
2010
Out: The Town
In: Winter’s Bone (Critics Choice)
2009
Out: Invictus
In: The Blind Side
There are plenty of ways this could go. These movies are very likely locked:
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
Poor Things
The Holdovers
Maestro
Past Lives
American Fiction
That leaves two slots open. They will likely be from these:
The Color Purple
May December
Anatomy of a Fall
The Zone of Interest
Air
Ferrari
Saltburn
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Your guess is as good as mine. You can look at the charts below. Here are our predictions.
Producers Guild Predictions
American Fiction — Sasha Stone, Ryan Adams, Marshall Flores, Mark Johnson, Clarence Moye
Barbie — Stone, Adams, Flores, Johnson, Moye
The Holdovers — Stone, Adams, Flores, Johnson, Moye
Killers of the Flower Moon — Stone, Adams, Flores, Johnson, Moye
Maestro — Stone, Adams, Flores, Johnson, Moye
Oppenheimer — Stone, Adams, Flores, Johnson, Moye
Past Lives — Stone, Adams, Flores, Johnson, Moye
Poor Things — Stone, Adams, Flores, Johnson, Moye
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse — Adams, Flores, Johnson, Moye
The Color Purple — Stone, Flores, Johnson, Moye
Ferrari — Adams
Air — Stone
Here are the charts (Thanks to Marshall for cleaning them up):