2025 Oscar Predictions: (POLL!) Is the Best Picture Race Already Over?

The film SIng Sing is currently “the frontrunner” if you follow the pundits. In reality, there is no frontrunner yet but the pundits shape the race (because almost no one else cares enough to shape it) – and the pundits are a wide swath of columnists, critics and fans. They do have a way of setting the order of things and doing it early.

Once a film is anointed the frontrunner, it is under much pressure to meet those expectations. Some films can (Oppenheimer) but some can’t (Lincoln).

Sing Sing is based on a true story, directed by filmmakers who have their roots in documentary and, by all accounts, has the feel of real life. Watching the trailer and it’s hard for me to come up with any reason why it wouldn’t win, especially if it’s going up against, say, Joker or Gladiator II. I defy you to watch it without tearing up. I could not. Just the trailer breaks my heart and I know I’ll be sobbing like an idiot all through it. So it’s hard to argue with that.

That it’s actor-centric is also a huge plus. Actors love nothing more than films that praise them or focus on them, as opposed to, say, visual effects.

Coleman Domingo looks strong for Lead Actor, and, believe it or not, no openly gay man has ever won Best Actor. That could change this year. The only potential snag I can see is that the writer and director are both white guys, director Greg Kwedar and writer Clint Bentley. It does look like there’s story credit by other writers, some of the real-life prisoners who went through the theater program, Clarence “Divine Eye” Maclin, and John “Divine G” Whitfield.

In the past, the critics have occasionally punished filmmakers who aren’t Black telling Black stories—like Kathryn Bigelow for Detroit and the filmmakers behind Dolemite is My Name. But this being A24, that seems unlikely. They are very Film Twitter-friendly. Also, a movie with this kind of emotional heft – it would seem petty if people turned around and focused on the filmmakers but you never know, I guess.

Sing Sing was screened in Toronto last year and will open at theaters in a couple of weeks. By this time last year I had Oppenheimer at number 1 – without even having seen it.

What made Oppenheimer unusual was that it was a theatrical release and a blockbuster. Every other film since the Academy moved the date back from late March to late February has been a festival get (The Departed is the only exception):

2023-Oppenheimer – theatrical release – July 21
2022-Everything, Everywhere All At Once – South by Southwest Film Festival
2021-CODA – Sundance
2020-Nomadland – Sundance
2019 – Parasite – Cannes
2018 – Green Book – Toronto
2017 – The Shape of Water – Venice
2016 – Moonlight – Telluride
2015 – Spotlight – Venice
2014 – Birdman – Venice
2013 – 12 Years a Slave – Telluride
2012 – Argo – Telluride
2011 – The Artist – Cannes
2010 – The King’s Speech – Telluride
2009 – The Hurt Locker – Toronto (the year before)
2008 – Slumdog Millionaire – Telluride
2007 – No Country for Old Men – Cannes
2006 – The Departed – theatrical release – October
2005 – Crash – Toronto

DATE CHANGE
2004 – Million Dollar Baby – theatrical, December
2003 – Return of the King – theatrical, December
2002 – Chicago – theatrical, December
2001 – A Beautiful Mind – theatrical, December
2000 – Gladiator – theatrical, May
1999 – American Beauty – theatrical, September
1998 – Shakespeare in love – theatrical, December
1997 – Titanic – theatrical, December
1996 – The English Patient – theatrical, November
1995 – Braveheart – theatrical, May
1994 – Forrest Gump – theatrical, July
1993 – Schindler’s List – theatrical, December
1992 – Unforgiven – theatrical, August
1991 – The Silence of the Lambs – theatrical, February
1990 – Dances with Wolves – theatrical, November

With a shorter window, films had to be positioned at a festival to gain enough traction to dominate the race.
SIng Sing fits very much in the mold of the modern-day Oscar winner—intimate, meaningful, and focusing on marginalized groups. But most of all, it’s a “feel-good” movie that will likely win the hearts of the voters.

The question then becomes can anything beat Sing Sing? I think, personally, to answer that we have to ask ourselves who is going to win the presidential election. When La La Land was the frontrunner and Trump won in 2016 it upended the Best Picture race and Moonlight ended up winning because the mood had greatly shifted. How that turns out will likely influence the general mood of voters.

CODA, Everything Everywhere All At Once were two films very much in keeping with the modern day Left. But things have bottomed out in Hollywood with the box office a near-ghost town and Oscar ratings persistently low. That led them to break with tradition last year and pick a theatrical release blockbuster that was most definitely not about identity.

The Oscar Race reddit has this post for Best Picture:

ANORA: Palme d’Or winner, great reviews

DUNE: PART TWO: The biggest film of the year, impossible to miss.

EMILIA PEREZ: A Cannes favorite with Netflix backing it, it’s the international pick for right now.

JOKER: FOLIE A DEUX: A possible Venice favorite, and all it needs to do is replicate the previous film’s success. No pressure.

NICKEL BOYS: A possible Fall Film Festival favorite.

NIGHTBITCH: I think it could be the Toronto Film Festival favorite pick. Plus it could give Amy Adams her prize.

QUEER: A possible Venice favorite with a lot of possibilities behind it.

A REAL PAIN: A Sundance favorite with Searchlight releasing it in October.

THE SEED OF THE SACRED FIG: A Cannes favorite with a fantastic story behind it.

SING SING: Great reviews, and all it needs is to make good money.

That, to me, is very Film Twitter friendly and since they influence the critics and ultimately Oscar voters (not Reddit users specifically) this list probably has about 5 of the ultimate 10 on it. But if you notice, they’re all rooted in film festivals except two – Dune 2 and Joker: Folie A Deux.

Just for fun, let’s look at what Erik Anderson of AwardsWatch was predicting this time last year:

Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
Maestro (Netflix)
Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
The Zone of Interest (A24)
The Holdovers (Focus Features)
Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros)
Past Lives (A24)
Barbie (Warner Bros)
Saltburn (Amazon Studios)

And what I was predicting:

Oppenheimer (Cillian Murphy, BA)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Leonardo DiCaprio, BA)
The Killer (Michael Fassbender, BA)
The Holdovers (Paul Giamatti, BA)
The Boys in the Boat (Callum Turner, BA) — this is a 1936 Olympics movie directed by George Clooney.
Poor Things
Next Goal Wins (Michael Fassbender, BA)
Past Lives
Ferarri (Adam Driver, BA)
Dune: Part Two (Timothee Chalamet, BA)

So Erik kicks my ass, obviously. Mine leaned very much into wishful thinking, or tryhing to break with Film Twitter, like I’m doing now. It just bothers me that the fix is in. It gets so dreadfully boring when we know by June what most of the contenders will be. So I resist it now just as I did last year.

So what is Erik predicting now (as of June 6, almost a month ago)?