Gold Derby has entered the chat. We all just threw up our predictions for the fun of it, but it’s just a vague blur on the horizon. Nothing has taken shape yet. Out intel is minimal. By the end of next month, the Venice Film Festival and the Telluride FIlm Festival will unfurl, giving a good idea of how this race might take shape.
The pics over at Gold Derby, more or less, mirror what is the early status quo. Several films are making the rounds in the group think based on nothing except a small consensus forming. The new generation of Oscar watchers springs from two sources. One is Next Best Picture, and one is the Oscar Expert and Brother Bro. They have carved out a whole new style on YouTube, with many copycat channels following the same basic formula. Here is just one I found:
It might not be a huge industry anymore but it’s nice to see the younger generation still as interested now as they ever were (even if it’s just a small group of people).
With over 50K subscribers, the Oscar Expert and Brother Bro seem to be doing pretty well, I’d say. They also offer movie reviews.
The latest one they did was Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress – which, I can promise you, is super wonk territory. It’s a dirty job but someone’s gotta do it.
Three weeks ago, they hit Best Actress, which is one of the categories we’ll be looking at. You can find that video here.
The question is whether we know anything or are just spitting in the wind. In ordinary times, it would be the latter, but now, the Oscar race has been stripped of all of its flesh and feathers such that only a bare-bones carcass remains. That makes it much easier to move around the Chess pieces and have them pay off. I am mildly fascinated by how they are lining up their predictions. The Oscar Expert and Brother Bro are thoughtful and honest, which is worthwhile, as far as it goes.
Do I wish we still lived in a time when the Oscars had relevance in the day-to-day lives of ordinary people? Yes, I do. Do I wish that the movies we were talking about were movies everyone knew? Yes, I do. Do I wish the titles rang a bell for even those of us who follow this stuff? Of course. The wonks throw around titles and names, assuming their viewers know what “Conclave” actually means. But they don’t unless you explain it.
The Oscars used to have a point. They mattered because movies mattered. The box office mattered so movies had to be better than they do now where there are as intense of market pressures on the studios, or at least none that they are paying attention to.
That’s why you pick almost any movie from the 1990s that you thought was PRETTY GOOD and now seems like a masterpiece. Some of those movies are now making a re-appearance in the form of remakes. We have Twisters opening July 19th (probably not an Oscars movie but should be). And we have Gladiator II. Both of their originals were films from the 1990s. Revisit them and appreciate what that era was like for Big Oscar Movies, or just Big Movies. Gladiator was both.
So when I see these younger folks doing their Oscar predictions, it’s great. They’d be more popular if the movies themselves were more popular. Only the super nerds or film Twitter types would know any of these titles.
Either way, let’s talk about what we do know so far.
The Cannes Film Festival
The only real intel we have is the Cannes Film Festival, what popped there and what we think might run the gauntlet and last. The three movies that seemed to pop from Cannes would be:
Emilia Perez
Anora
The Substance
An outside chance for The Seed of the Sacred Fig.
Weirdly, all three movies will compete in the Best Actress category. Emelia Perez has three Best Actress contenders in the film. There does seem to be some disagreement on where Karla Sofía Gascón will land. OG Oscar blogger Clayton Davis, over at Variety, has her in his top three:
1 Saoirse Ronan — “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)
2 Julianne Moore — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
3 Karla Sofía Gascón — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
4 Zendaya — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios)
5 Demi Moore — “The Substance” (Mubi)
His second tier looks like this:
6 Amy Adams — “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)
7 Lady Gaga — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
8 Florence Pugh — “We Live in Time” (A24)
9 Angelina Jolie — “Maria” (No U.S. Distribution)
10 Mikey Madison — “Anora” (Neon)
As far as Cannes goes, probably two of those films, at the most, will ultimately make it into the list. Most of us will be guessing it’s Emelia Perez and Anora, however, take note: The Substance is directed by Coralie Fargeat, a female and that might boost her chances at finding a spot.
Venice/Telluride Two Step
Just before the Venice Film Festival will be Telluride. It’s still the only film festival I personally attend, so that makes it far superior to any other festival all year. We have yet to determine what the films will be, though our fortune teller, Michael Patterson, does due diligence to try to predict the lineup. Right now, his list looks like this:
Here’s this week’s Ten Bets for TFF #51:
1) Anora/Baker
2) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard
3) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar
4) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof
5) Nickel Boys/Ross
6) A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things/Cousins
7) Maria/Pablo Larrain
8) Conclave/Berger
9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino
10) Bird/Arnold
Other possibilities:
The End/Oppenheimer
I’m Still Here/Salles
Parthenope/Sorrentino
In the Hand of Dante/Schnabel
Hard Truths/Leigh
The Piano Lesson/Washington
Untitled Noah Baumbach
Megalopolis/Coppola
Napoleon (new restoration)/Gance
Leonardo DaVinci/Burns
Oh, Canada/Schrader
The Actor/Johnson
SNL 1975
All We Imagine as Light
Memoir of a Snail
Some of Michael’s predictions overlap with what we know about the Venice Film Festival (both are happening at the end of August).
The next big thing will be Venice. We got a sneak peek in Variety at what films will be shown there. One more, at least, for the Best Actress category and that’s Angelina Jolie who will be there with Maria. Her notorious ex, Brad Pitt, will also be there with Wolfs (along with George Clooney), which will generate a lot of press. Lady Gaga will burn up the red carpet with Joker Folie a Deux and Joaquin Phoenix.
Both Venice and Telluride seem to be strong on the films with lead acting contenders. Here is how Clayton Davis’ Best Actor lineup looks:
1 Denzel Washington — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
2 Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave” (Focus Features)
3 Joaquin Phoenix — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
4 Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing” (A24)
5 John David Washington — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
The next tier:
6 Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
7 Paul Mescal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
8 Andrew Garfield — “We Live in Time” (A24)
9 Michael Keaton — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
10 Sebastian Stan — “A Different Man” (A24)
I appreciate Clayton’s breaking with the groupthink and offering something unusual. As the saying goes, go big or go home.
Joaquin Phoenix will be in Venice. And Luca Guadagnio’s Queer will be there with Daniel Craig as the lead actor contender.
Other films potentially showing at Venice include Ron Howard’s Eden (which sounds great), and Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths, and Julian Schnabel’s In the Hand of Dante.
Predictions
Here is how Gold Derby’s experts are predicting Best Picture. Let’s take a random three:
As you can see, we’re more or less looking at the same basic salad bowl of contenders, at least for now. You can look at all Gold Derby’s predictions by clicking here.
Here is my list for this week, for what it’s worth:
Best Picture
Sing Sing
Gladiator II
Joker: Folie a Deux
Dune: Part Two
Conclave
Anora
Blitz
Emilia Perez
Wicked
Hard Truths
But I am wondering about: Eden, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Nickel Boys
Best Director
Todd Phillips, Joker Folie A Deux
Mike Leigh, Hard Truths
Sean Baker, Anora
Denis Villenueve, Dune II
Edward Berger, Conclave
But wondering about: Jaques Audiard, Emilia Perez, Luca Guadagnino, Queer, Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
Best Actress
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez (unless in Supporting)
Lady Gaga, Joker Folie a Deux
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Wondering about: Cynthia Erivo, Wicked, Saoirse Ronan, Blitz, Robin Wright, Here
Best Actor
Coleman Domingo, SIng Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Folie a Deux
Paul Mescal, Gladiator II
Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys
Wondering about: Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time, Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Aujanue Elliis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Selena Gomez, Emilia Perez
Best Supporting Actor
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Paul Raci, Sing Sing
John Lithgow, Conclave
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Teacher
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Sing Sing
Nickel Boys
Nightbitch
Joker: Folie a Deux
Original Screenplay
Anora
Blitz
Hard Truths
Emilia Perez
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
And that, my friends, was all she wrote. More next week.
