If there is one category that the general public, but especially film twitter, is really into regarding the nominees and who has a legitimate chance of winning, it is Best Actress. Far more so than any other, it’s one that so many people analyze and attempt to find correlations about who wins year after year. That is arguably still the case for this season, with an abundance of viable contenders yet a small handful that could go all the way.
Let’s dive in.
Two contenders have been widely seen and have passionate support not only for a nomination but a win for their respective projects. Mikey Madison for Anora and Karla Sofia Gascón for Emilia Perez. Fitting as it is not only two performances that premiered at Cannes, but two actresses in strong Best Picture nominees (being the titular role in each respectively) and, more importantly, two actresses who have inspired passion for what these wins would signify. Madison for being a young star with a bright future, and Gascón making history as the first Transgender Actress to win an acting award. It’s a tough battle, but all eyes are watching this race.
However, after seeing the two films, I’m fairly confident in Mikey Madison will go all the way for Anora (If Baker’s film is as strong in best picture as some suggest). Besides that, however, Madison IS the movie as much as it is Sean Baker’s, and if one even connects to it ever so slightly, it’s hard not to root for Madison. Nevertheless, Gascón, despite arguably being the supporting actress in her own film, has the narrative, and has a performance that many people will ultimately resonate with. Add onto the fact that it’s a more “crowd-pleasing project,” and it’s possible she can go the distance.
It all starts with a Comedy/Musical Actress at the Golden Globes, where the two are facing off. There is the off chance someone like Cynthia Erivo for the unseen musical Wicked or Amy Adams for Nightbitch could take it in old, shocking golden globe fashion, but truthfully, it’s a race between the top two. I would have to give the narrow edge as of now to Mikey Madison (under the idea that Anora seems incredibly strong in Best Picture), but Gascón makes history for the Golden Globes so how does she lose?
Here are my Globes predictions as of now:
Golden Globe Actress Prediction (Comedy/Musical)
- Mikey Madison, Anora
- Karla Sofia Gascón, Emila Perez
- Amy Adams, Nightbitch
- Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
- Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie a Deux
- Zendaya, Challengers
Onto the drama side, there are many narratives to dissect fully, but it’s for films that do not seem all that strong about how they will perform in other categories. Six performances that have stuck out at the festivals (all of which I have not been able to see yet, which will be slightly corrected this month) are those of Angelina Jolie in Maria, Nicole Kidman in Babygirl, Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths, Saoirse Ronan in The Outrun (will be supporting in Blitz), and the combined lead performances of Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton in The Room Next Door.
I can check off at least three of these projects later this month in Montclair, so there will be a better read then. However, about the Globe Drama category, each performance may have a shot independent of whatever happens in the race between Gascón and Madison. If I had to bet, on paper it’s one between Angelina Jolie and Saoirse Ronan, with the edge to the former due to the biopic factor of it all (Pablo Larrian’s track record be damned), off chance of Demi Moore in The Substance but probably far too graphic for these voters, and Robin Wright if Here ends up being a success with the old guard.
Golden Globe Drama Actress Predictions
- Angelina Jolie, Maria
- Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
- Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
- Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
- Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
- Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door
For SAG, which is a set five, it comes down to a few factors. Despite the historical precedent of international features facing significant difficulty in obtaining nominations (only two ever being nominated in sag ensemble, Life is Beautiful and Parasite), one has to imagine that Emilia Perez has the goods to go the distance, even in individual acting races. SAG is big on recurring favorites, so one should rely on those for predictions. Specifically, this helps a performance such as Nicole Kidman’s in Babygirl while hurting smaller films and lesser-known actresses like Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths.
SAG Lead Actress Predictions
- Mikey Madison, Anora
- Angelina Jolie, Maria
- Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
- Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
- Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (If Eligible, could be snubbed like Sandra Huller)
Alt: Amy Adams, Nightbitch
For the Oscar Five, one should look towards the more international and auteur-y for rounding out the five. Madison, Jolie, and Gascón are locked, with the last two slots up for grabs. As of today, I believe the narrative for Ronan (between The Outrun and Blitz) will factor in here, and, due to the passion for the film and the British voting block (like Ronan to an extent), Marianne Jean-Baptiste rounds out the five.
Oscar Best Actress Predictions
- Mikey Madison, Anora
- Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez
- Angelina Jolie, Maria
- Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
- Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Alts: Tilda Swinton and/or Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door
I’m seeing The Room Next Door, Hard Truths, and Nightbitch later this month, so I hope to have more on this by then.
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