2025 Oscar Predictions: Can Wicked Dominate the Nominations?

It’s hard to know how Wicked will be received by Academy members. At the moment, there are few negative reactions to it beyond complaints about the run time. Considering so many hopefuls for 2024 fell flat at the box office, Wicked might fill the necessary slot of making the Oscars exciting for movie fans. Then again, we said the same thing about Barbie and it didn’t do much to up the ratings. THEN AGAIN, the clips from the show were spread far and wide on social media, so it’s not always a matter of ratings.

According to Deadline, Wicked is headed for an opening of around 130-150 million. Given the run time, the estimate is hedged somewhat and could over-perform or under-perform. The word of mouth seems good, and the Rotten Tomatoes score could not be better. All systems go for a strong box office for the musical.

Says Anthony D’Alessandro:

Early figures tonight–not attributed to any studios because they stay mum until tomorrow AM– is that Wickedis casting an estimated spell of $8Mtonight alone, however, if you count Monday’s Amazon promotion previews and last night’s fan premium format showings, that total preview tally flies to around $20M, I hear. As we told you previously, we heard pre sales were around $30M, however, once there’s a must-see title for female moviegoers, they’ll definitely book a date to the cinema. With walk-up business unpredictable, the outlook is wild for Wicked with a 3-day between $130M-$150M. The argument on the lower end of the projection is that the Jon M. Chu directed, Marc Platt produced movie is 2 hours and 40 minutes.

Deadline predicts Gladiator II will open with around $60 million. Gladiator II is counterprogramming and could bring in more of the target demo for men, but we’ll have to see. It didn’t exactly light the YouTube fellas on fire, so I’m not sure how that one goes down.

As far as Wicked goes, it feels like everything is circular. The Tonys eventually were swallowed up by productions based on movies. Movies based on popular Broadway shows haven’t traditionally done that well at the Oscars. It’s been hit or miss, with musicals doing much worse—other than Chicago and West Side Story.

But this is no ordinary moment. Hollywood is in a bad way right now, at the box office, with ratings. They need an infusion of enthusiasm and Wicked might just be that, even more than Barbie was. Wicked comes with a baked-in fandom of theater geeks who are obsessed with it. If it is a major player at the Oscars, who knows.

What do I mean by major player? I would think it would have to go something like this:

Nominations for:
Best Picture
Best Actress – Cynthia Erivo
Supporting Actress (even though Ariana Grande is a co-lead)
Screenplay – adapted
Costumes
Sound
Production Design
Visual Effects
Hair & Makeup

That takes it to 9. Can it also get anywhere near, say, Directing, Editing and Cinematography? Those are longer shots but not totally out of the realm of possibility. If so, we’re looking at a whopper with 12 nods.

Wicked will do very well with the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice, giving it a strong bounce heading into Oscar voting. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Critics Choice went in with a record-breaking number of nominations, like 14 or something.

Then, it’s a matter of whether Jon Chu can land in the DGA nominations, whether Wicked gets a SAG ensemble nomination (yes, probably), and how the movie lands with BAFTA voters. It will be interesting to see how they handle this one. But for now, Universal can rest easy that they have, at least, a box office hit on their hands.

In other news, James Mangold and A Complete Unknown is also being hyped ahead of its Christmas release. How does that one do with the major guilds? Does it land with the DGA? SAG ensemble? Does it become one of the strongest five contenders heading in?

It’s still too soon to know, but right now, the Golden Globes are filling out their ballots and if Mangold can land there, or the film can get in for Screenplay, then maybe it’s a strong contender.

The DGA, to me, seems like it might go something like this:

Sean Baker – Anora
Edward Berger – Conclave
Denis Villeneuve – Dune II

Then it starts to get a little tricky. With 16,000 or so members, are all of them going to have seen The Brutalist? If so, Brady Corbet is in. How many of them will love Wicked? What about James Mangold? It does seem to me like it would be:

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (or Jaques Audiard, Emilia Perez)

There’s also Coralie Fargeat for The Substance who could land there or at the Oscars, especially if they want to make sure they include a female director.

It’s hard to tell what is Oscar buzz now because there really isn’t any. It’s based only on how pundits shape the race. That’s a bummer, truth be told, because we need the movies and the Oscars to have some relevance to the people out there in the dark. I know I helped build this machine way back in 1999 when I innocently thought it “would be fun to start a newspaper,” but now, it feels like it’s all mostly a fixed and static game.

Clint Eastwood’s Juror #2 should be a stronger player. It should be considered across the board for nominations but it probably won’t be. There aren’t many surprises left because it is all arranged in advance such that there can be no surprises.

Who knows, maybe there is still some magic left. Who knows. This is a short one because I’m on the road driving to Ohio to see my daughter for Thanksgiving. Herewith, my predictions for this week.

Best Picture
1. Anora
2. Conclave
3. Emilia Perez
4. The Brutalist
5. Dune Part Two
6. Sept 5
7. Wicked
8. A Real Pain
9. Sing Sing
10. The Substance
Alt: Wicked, Blitz, Saturday Night, All We Imagine as Light

Best Director
1. Sean Baker, Anora
2. Edward Berger, Conclave
3. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
4. Jaques Audiard, Emilia Perez
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Alt: Denis Villenueve, Dune Part Two

Best Actor
1. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
2. Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
3. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
5. Daniel Craig, Queer
Alt. Nicolas Hoult, Juror #2

Best Actress
1. Mikey Madison, Anora
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
3. Demi Moore, The Substance
4. Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
5. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Alt: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

Best Supporting Actor
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
2. Adam Pearson, A Different Man
3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
4. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
5. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked
Alt. Stanley Tucci, Conclave, Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Best Supporting Actress
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked
2. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
3. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
5. Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Alt. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys,Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson; Toni Collette, Juror #2

Best Original Screenplay
1. Sept 5
2. A Real Pain
3. Anora
4. The Brutalist
5. Juror #2
Alt. The Substance

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Conclave
2. Dune II
3. Nickel Boys
4. Emilia Perez
5. The Piano Lesson

Best Cinematography
1. Dune: Part Two
2. The Brutalist
3. Nosferatu
4. The Substance
5. Conclave

Editing
Sept 5
Conclave
Dune Part Two
The Substance
Wicked

Production Design
Dune Part II
Nosferatu
Wicked
The Substance
Emilia Perez

Costumes
Wicked
The Substance
Dune Part II
Maria
Nosferatu

Sound
Wicked
Dune Part II
Gladiator II
Emilia Perez
Maria

Hair/Makeup
Wicked
Furiosa
The Substance
Nosferatu
Emilia Perez