Every Oscar winner wins because they tell a good story. The story isn’t so much the movie itself or the characters the actors play, it’s the narrative that revolves around the win itself. The “Oscar story” is what determines who ends up on stage holding the gold statue. Is has less to do with worth or quality – unless someone turns in an A+ work in a long career of high achievement (Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer) — and more to do with how that win makes voters feel.
Ideally, the win is driven more by worth or merit. But that’s not usually how it goes, either back when Jennifer Lawrence rode the wave of love for a brief moment in time, or now, when “making history” makes the voters feel like they are voting with a sense of purpose. Voters are driven by emotion, whether they love someone or the role they play or the movie itself. Finding out which movie will drive the most love and why is the key to predicting what will win.
The publicist’s job is manage expectations and drive narratives. What is the film’s driving narrative heading into the race and how does that help shape their “Oscar Story” that justifies the vote of Academy members. Sometimes they just love a movie. But in the case of La La Land vs. Moonlight, the narrative that emerged was that La La Land somehow didn’t “deserve” to win that year, in 2016, that Moonlight did because its win meant something more than just pure the craft and accomplishment of the filmmaking itself. What people love about Moonlight isn’t so much how it was written or directed, but rather, how they felt voting for it. What a movie like that made them feel. La La Land was impressive all the way on the other end of the spectrum.
There has always been a push and a pull between the most accomplished movies and movies that voters feel like they want to vote for—Lincoln vs. Argo, The Social Network vs. The King’s Speech. That’s largely due to the narrative that forms during the Oscar race, but it’s also due to the overabundance of actors in the Academy. Actors mostly decide what wins.
Because of the general weakness of Hollywood studios of late and the influx of international voters into the awards race, Cannes and Venice have become the two most influential among the film festivals. Three films in the race come from Cannes and Venice: Anora (which won the Palme d’or), Emilia Perez and The Brutalist, which won the Silver Lion for Brady Corbet. Conclave showed at Telluride. The only film in the race that isn’t a film festival movie and is the only big studio movie in the running is Universal’s Wicked. If there is another film that might sneak up, CODA-style, and win it could be Sing Sing, which showed up at Toronto. But at the moment, I see that as a very long shot, along with the other nominees like Nickel Boys, The Substance, etc.
The films that were expected to be among the Best Pictures of the Year, like Blitz and Gladiator II, haven’t seemed to gain enough early traction to land. At the moment, only four films have hit all of the major precursors heading into the race. Please forgive any errors on this chart as the person who used to proof these is no longer advising. It isn’t that you have to have all of them — CODA, The Shape of Water are two that didn’t, but it certainly helps. Despite missing the NBR, The Brutalist still feels like a strong competitor, even if some are put off by its length. If they do watch it, they will be impressed by it. It is a towering achievement by any measure and it’s not a film any self-respecting group should ignore. A Real Pain was curiously left off of the Critics choice, which broke its record.
The question of which of these films can win is where you need your narratives. Despite missing the NBR, I still have Emilia Perez in the “could win” category, which means it, like any other potential winner, needs a narrative. So let’s go through them.
The narrative for Emilia Perez is easy. They need only dive into the culture war in America right now with the fight in DC over bathrooms, the fight in schools over transgender athletes, not to mention “gender-affirming care.” It is a film that gives people what they need to do with their vote that helps make change, or perhaps they see it that way. Emilia Perez is not the only transgender-themed film in the race. There is also the documentary Will & Harper (also by Netflix). In both cases, these are formerly biological men who have transitioned and now present as females. In both films and in how they’ve been received, there is a sense that if you criticize them, you will be called a bigot. So, most people will not be honest about how they feel about the issue.
The narrative for Anora, at least from my perspective, would be a tribute to Sean Baker’s uncompromising body of work, an artist through and through, someone who wants to tell authentic stories about people on the fringe. It’s full of life, funny, moving and unpredictable. But finding a narrative in 2024 is tough. Its Oscar story is entirely wrapped up in Baker. If he is the frontrunner for Best Director, which it looks like he is now, then Anora becomes the frontrunner for Best Picture. Anora is still the “frontrunner,” if such a thing exists this year. It would win because of pure love. It isn’t that everyone is going to like this movie. It might be a bit rough for some. But those who love it REALLY love it and that kind of passion matters in a competitive year.
The narrative for Conclave would be tied to the last election, without a doubt, and a way for those who are still upset about it, or wish the world could be different or better, might see this film as the one that scratch that itch. It isn’t so much “woke” as it is about rewriting the future by overcoming tradition. Not electing a woman in America for the second time has left many on the Left and in Hollywood angry and frustrated. Conclave might feel like not just a redo of that, but a middle finger to Trump and to Conservatives overall. Conclave is one of those highly accomplished films that are easy to overlook because they’re so well done. What it is needs is passionate support.
The narrative for The Brutalist is that it’s the kind of movie that used to win Best Picture throughout Hollywood history—a sweeping epic full of wonderful period costumes and performances. It has big themes, a big canvas, and a daring approach. There is nothing out there like this movie, and if enough people watch it, there’s a good chance it could win just on ambition alone. Brady Corbet took a big bite and that’s rare for such a young filmmaker.
The narrative for Wicked is that it saved Hollywood the same way Top Gun Maverick and Barbenheimer did. It was the one big blockbuster of the year that proves Hollywood’s success. The more movies like this win the Oscars, the better it will be for the Oscar brand and for Hollywood’s continued success. It’s also a very good film, especially the second half when Cynthia Erivo becomes the witch. It’s captured the zeitgeist and is beloved. The only problem? “To be continued”…
Each of these films has a strong leading actor who might very well win. And that actor’s narrative could help boost the movie. Wicked, for instance, would earn only the second Black actress in film history — 97 years — to win in lead. Or Emilia Perez might anoint the first transgender actress to a win which also boosts Emilia Perez. That narrative needs no explanation.
Or Ralph Fiennes could become the frontrunner to win Best Actor (and I think he will), that could help boost Conclave toward the win. Then again, if Sing Sing’s Colman Domingo starts winning, then that could help that film in the Best Picture race.
In addition to finding the narrative, these questions must also be asked:
What will win the Golden Globe in Drama?
What will win the Golden Globes in Musical/Comedy?
What will win the DGA?
What will win the PGA?
What will win the SAG?
In other words, we still don’t have a frontrunner but we’re getting a little bit closer.
Also would like to announce that The Gatecrashers now has its own whole website with our leaderboard predictions all on the main page. We’re about to do an update. So keep an eye on that site. We’ll hopefully have podcasts and maybe more content. For now, it’s just a predictions site.
Here are my predictions for this week:
Best Picture
Anora
Conclave
Wicked
The Brutalist
Emilia Perez
A Complete Unknown
Dune Part Two
The Substance
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
A Real Pain
Alt: A Different Man, Nosferatu
Best Director
Sean Baker, Anora
Edward Berger, Conclave
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Jaques Audiard, Emilia Perez
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Alt: James Mangold, a Complete Unknown, Jon Chu, Wicked, Denis Villeneuve, Dune Part Two, RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys,
Best Actress
Mikey Madison, Anora
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Demi Moore, The Substance
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Alts: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths, Angelina Jolie, Maria
Best Actor
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Daniel Craig, Queer
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Alt: Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice or a Different Man
Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Yura Borisov, Anora
Adam Pearson, A Different Man
Alt. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing, Jonathan Bailey, Wicked, Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Best Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Alt: Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson, Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown
Original Screenplay
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Anora
The Substance
Alt: Hard Truths, Emilia Perez, September 5
Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Dune Part Two
A Complete Unknown
Inside Out 2
Queer
Alt. The Piano Lesson
Cinematography
Nosferatu
Dune Part Two
The Brutalist
The Substance
Emilia Perez
Editing
Conclave
Anora
Dune Part Two
The Substance
Challengers
Alt. Emilia Perez, Wicked, September 5, Saturday Night
Production Design
Nosferatu
Wicked
Dune Part Two
The Substance
Emilia Perez
Alt. Furiosa
Costumes
Wicked
Nosferatu
Dune Part Two
Emilia Perez
The Substance
Sound
Wicked
Dune Part Two
Gladiator II
Twisters
Deadpool & Wolverine
Animated
Inside Out 2
The Wild Robot
Flow
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Moana 2
Score
The Brutalist
The Wild Robot
Challengers
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Makeup and Hair
The Substance
Wicked
Beatlejuice Beatlejuice
Nosferatu
A Different Man
That’s it, folks. Have a great weekend.
