It feels like we’re almost done with the Oscar race, doesn’t it? One Battle After Another screened and has been met with acclaim from those who saw it early, though the review embargo will be up tomorrow. PTA is a critic’s darling, so expect the reviews to be through the roof. I have now seen the movie, but can’t give my thoughts until the review embargo is up tomorrow. I am not sure if I will write a review. I can talk about the Oscars a bit without giving away too much.
The Oscars don’t exist in a vacuum. As cut off from the rest of the country as Hollywood has become (in my opinion), there are still major events that impact how voters see certain movies. With this film, One Battle After Another, we can assume that the recent assassination of Charlie Kirk and the reaction to it will have some effect. We just don’t yet know what that effect will be.
I will discuss this more in the review I hope to write, but here’s the thing. The preferential ballot is a strange beast. It’s been made even more strange by the changing demographics, with 3,000 new members — international, of color, and women. It’s not like the Oscars of old.
I’ve always thought a Best Picture winner could best be described as a film you could sit anyone down in front of and they would get it at least, if not love it. But if a film like Everything Everywhere All At Once could win, all bets are off. That is not a movie you can sit anyone down in front of and they will get it, if not love it.
Rotten Tomatoes tells the tale:
It’s not extremely divisive, but it is divisive. Within the industry, it wasn’t. It was absolute euphoria because it reflected their worldview in every way imaginable. It checked all of the boxes. But Oppenheimer, the following year, and Anora were still, within that framework, movies most people could at least understand.
The Preferential Ballot
There are two ways to win on a ranked choice ballot. The first is to win on the first round. The second is to win on the recounts.
If you take 2019, for instance, with Parasite, you had a movie that was among the first to be voted on by the “new Academy,” and thus, they weren’t as invested in giving it to an American studio film, even though that was a banner year with 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Joker and The Irishman.
Movies that win on the first round, I think, win a bunch of other Oscars, like CODA, which won all three it was nominated for. It also won the PGA+SAG. Movies that probably didn’t win on the first round would be movies that didn’t win a lot of Oscars, like Spotlight or 12 Years a Slave.
Let’s look at how the films have shaken out with the big guilds:
2009
The Hurt Locker
PGA/DGA/nominated for SAG ensemble – won Picture, Director, Screenplay (First round maybe or recount)
2010
The King’s Speech
PGA/DGA/SAG – won Picture, Director Screenplay, Actor (first round)
2011
The Artist
PGA/DGA – won Picture, Director, Actor (first round)
2012
Argo
PGA/DGA/SAG – won Picture, Screenplay (first round)
2013
12 Years a Slave
PGA (shared with Gravity) – won Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actress (recount vote)
2014
Birdman
PGA/DGA/SAG – won Picture, Director, Screenplay (first round)
2015
Spotlight
SAG – won Picture, Screenplay (recount)
2016
Moonlight
won Picture, Screenplay (recount)
2017
The Shape of Water
PGA/DGA – won Picture, Director (probably recount)
2018
Green Book
PGA – won Picture, Screenplay (probably recount)
2019
Parasite
SAG – won Picture, Director, Screenplay (first round)
2020
Nomadland
PGA/DGA – won Picture, Director, Actress (first round)
2021
CODA
PGA/SAG – won Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actor (first round)
2022
Everything Everywhere
PGA/DGA/SAG – won Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actor + Actress (first round)
2023
Oppenheimer
PGA/DGA/SAG – won Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor (first round)
2024
Anora
PGA/DGA – won Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actress (first round)
A first round vote is a passion vote. This is when there is a clear favorite loved by the New Academy, I’m guessing. One Battle After Another wins this way. I don’t think it wins on a recount because it is divisive. Sinners is less divisive. It’s what I call a “kicking puppy” movie wherein people will push it to the tops of their ballot because they like Ryan Coogler, admire the project and want to see him win. Hamnet will most definitely be pushed to the top of the ballot, too.
Divisive movies don’t do well on a preferential ballot. If people love it or hate it, it won’t get those second and third place votes. La La Land suffered from this fate. You either loved it or you didn’t like it. The in-betweens were not as many. A divisive movie has to win on the first round.
It’s hard to know if One Battle will be a love it/hate it. We’ll know by tomorrow. I’m under embargo so I can’t weigh in on that just yet but any movie that is overtly political and involves racism will be divisive (think: Crash). But with the new Academy, all it has to be is pro their worldview and they’ll roll with it. My gut tells me it will be divisive.
The thing is, the Oscar race is not static. It’s fluid. Events change the way people absorb movies and there is not doubt, at least right now, that much of the violence of late will impact how people see these movies. There are also other movies still to be seen, like Avatar and Wicked for Good. We don’t have the whole story yet. The pundits have anointed the frontrunner as One Battle but the race is far from over.
The other thing is that movies don’t have to be likable to the public to win. Even if One Battle becomes controversial and even attacked, it won’t really matter inside the bubble. They exist in their own insulated segment of society. There are no checks on them – box office hardly matters (though it can’t bomb) and neither do ratings. With streaming, there is no other need but to maintain one’s status. So all that really matters is what the 10,000 people in the Academy think.
Meanwhile, here are Glenn Whipp’s power rankings:
- One Battle After Another
- Hamnet
- Sentimental Value
- Sinners
- House of Dynamite
- Wicked: For Good
- It Was Just An Accident
- Marty Supreme
- Jay Kelly
- Bugonia
Yeah, I don’t agree with these at all. I am not giving up on Sinners quite yet, at least not until I watch One Battle make landfall. I think Sinners is better (and Weapons) but I also wouldn’t be surprised if Hamnet beats both.
