2026 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture Amid Civil War

We’re fighting America’s second Civil War. We’re not fighting it on the battlefield with guns (although guns and deaths, riots, and mobs have played some part), but rather on social media. If you think of the internet, and I got online in 1994, as the new frontier, it’s easy to see how we might be fighting a Civil War for what this new world might look like. Who gets to decide the rules?

The internet was colonized by the Left, I know, I was here. It was under the guidance and in the image of President Obama. That was 2008, at the dawn of social media and the iPhone. We tinkered with our utopian diorama for years. It wasn’t until around 2012 that we began to feel what we thought was a sinister threat: the isms, the ists, and the phobes. It is inevitable in all utopias that they eventually become dystopias, per Milan Kundera in The Book of Laughter and Forgetting:

When I went to the Oscars in 2017, just after Trump had won, La La Land was set to sweep the awards. A narrative had bloomed that it was “racist” because Ryan Gosling explained Jazz. As one of the traumatized “resistance,” I bought into this idea and was caught up in the hysteria. I argued with the producer of the film over email, explaining that things were different now and La La Land should not win.

I predicted Moonlight, but was so convinced La La Land would win that I stormed out of the Dolby that night before the final award would be handed out. We know how that went. I wasn’t there to see it because I was just that consumed by hysteria.

We all somehow believed it was an election do-over, and for the next four years, the American public watched Hollywood lose its mind, with every award show being a group therapy session. But it was even worse than that. The purges resulted in people being fired and canceled across the internet. The power rested in the hands of the mob, and that was that. What you just saw with Jimmy Kimmel was child’s play compared. No, it didn’t come from the government, though it would when Biden took office, but it didn’t matter. The mob tore up the insides of a once-thriving film industry.

The next year, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was deemed “racist,” and the mob rose up and decided anyone praising it was a “racist” too. I noticed it then. I am not sure what snapped me out of it, but something did, and I began pushing back.

Three Billboards wouldn’t win, The Shape of Water would instead. As the Academy began inviting thousands of new members to stay just ahead of the mob, the purges continued. Things have never been as bad as they were when Green Book won. That was the turning point. Hollywood has never recovered.

By 2020, it was all-out revolution in the Summer. Biden was put in power, but the hysteria did not ease. The Golden Globes were canceled and accused of being “racist.” They would be taken off the air and then resurrected by Jay Penske, who also owns Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, Deadline, Gold Derby, Indiewire, and Rolling Stone.

The BAFTA pulled voting privileges for their members and brought in a select committee that would pick the “correct” nominees so they would not be called racists. That practice has mostly ended. The Academy implemented a DEI mandate that took effect last year. All productions must comply, or they won’t be eligible for the Oscars. And all productions DO comply, and now that’s all we see in every movie made, especially Oscar movies. They must be obedient, and they must count heads.

Even Weapons, which is less so than most, does have representation. It has to. All of them do. So, the films that speak to the moment must also. Even though the last two Best Picture winners were as far from “woke” mandates as you can possibly get, Oppenheimer and Anora, there is no reason to think that this, the first year of Trump’s second term, won’t be yet more mass hysteria. We can already see it unfolding now on X.

Our Civil War was one side with all of the power refusing to cede power to the deplorables who rose up and rejected our utopian vision for America — where everyone is assigned a category that determines their worth. Our battles are on social media as we fight for “the narrative.”

The question now is whether voters will lean in or run away like they did in 1968 when they chose Oliver!

Best Picture

Sinners is a movie that takes place in the Jim Crow South. It tells the truth about the time. It tells the truth about what Black Americans suffered at the hands of actual racists. It is a fantasy film, much like Django Unchained or Inglourious Basterds also were. It imagines how Robert Johnson or someone like him might have taken up arms against those who oppressed them. Of course, they couldn’t. They’d be lynched or thrown in jail.

One Battle After Another, told from the perspective of someone who is part of the ruling elite, sends the message that America is still the same as it was back then. And unfortunately, those trapped in the Doomsday Bunker also believe that. The question is how many industry voters are?

I’ve actually seen quotes from some on the Awards Expert app that think Trump will try to cancel the Oscars or pull the film. When I see how crazy people are, especially the young, I feel so sad. They deserve better than to be hypnotized into yet more hysteria by people who, quite frankly, have the luxury to point their fingers and say “those are the bad people over there, but we are the good people.”

Can One Battle win without the necessary fanaticism and hysteria that afflicts your average “resistance” warrior? I don’t know. That’s a good question. My gut tells me no, it can’t. I’m leaning more toward Hamnet every day, and I haven’t even seen it.

We don’t have any history to work with because obviously there was no film industry during the last Civil War, and the Oscars have changed so dramatically, with thousands of new voters, many of whom are not invested in the film industry in America anyway. The Academy is trying to become more global, less local, and thus, believes the media narratives; therefore, it would think One Battle is a truthful reflection of America now (it is not).

What helps the movie is goodwill toward Paul Thomas Anderson and Leonard DiCaprio. They’re still seen as “good guys” in the war and thus will be rewarded. PTA has such a long history and so many nominations; might this finally be his big win? It might.

What hurts PTA is that the movie cost $150 million or thereabouts. Voters really like movies that didn’t cost that much, though where Oppenheimer was concerned, they made an exception and they might do the same thing here.

Anora–$6 million
Oppenheimer–$100 million
Everything Everywhere–$25 million
CODA-$10 million
Nomadland–$5 million
Parasite–$11 million
Green Book–$23 million
The Shape of Water–$19 million
Moonlight–$1.5 million
Spotlight–$20 million
Birdman–$18 million
12 Years a Slave–$20 million
Argo–$44 million
The Artist–$15 million
The King’s Speech–$15 million
The Hurt Locker–$15 million

Blockbusters that make lots of money, like Oppenheimer or, say, Return of the King, aren’t as hurt by their high budgets. One Battle looks like an indie movie with the luxury of Vistavision and a lot of high-paid movie stars. I liked American Girl at the end, but how much did that cost to put in there?

The best thing about the movie is that Paul Thomas Anderson obviously made it as an ode to his own daughter, and I’m guessing, she’s a Hollywood kid who was raised in the schools that teach them the oppressor/oppressed mindset. He cast himself, more or less, as the ineffectual Leo figure, providing support but ultimately can’t save her from the white people who want to kill her (they don’,t but okay). And for that, it’s still hard to justify a $150 mil budget, and I expect it will cause some in Hollywood to go- um, what?

But in the bubble, things like ratings and box office don’t really matter. That’s the advantage of being in a bubble. When all of your basic needs are met — your problems then become existential, not practical. Still, unless they’re scared into silence, I expect the box office to be a talking point.

On the other hand, as Scott Kernen pointed out, China might ultimately save the film, as it sends its preferred message: communism is good, America is bad.

But I would watch out for Hamnet. It has none of the baggage of that box office. It isn’t a movie about vampires, but is instead about actors and the THEATER.

If Sinners and One Battle ultimately divide loyalties (two films about racism), voters might seek the one that moves them emotionally more than makes them angry and scared.

There is also Wicked For Good coming and Avatar: Fire and Ash. These might shake up the race a bit, who knows?

I am also wondering about Sentimental Value. Why did No Other Choice beat it in Toronto? Maybe it doesn’t matter what they did in Toronto, but it seems kind of a big deal that it did so well there.

It’s possible we have a split year. I say that only because I think Hamnet is flying under the radar and pundits are underestimating it. I don’t know of Chloé Zhao can win a second Oscar. It’s possible. But I think it’s more likely that Best Director goes to PTA or Ryan Coogler, with the picture taking the emotional movie.

I think after two years without a split between Picture and Director, we might see one this year. How that has played out since 2009:

Non-split years:

2009–Picture/director/screenplay–The Hurt Locker
2010–Picture/director/screeplay–The King’s Speech
2011-Picture/director–The King’s Speech
2014–Picture/director/screenplay–Birdman
2017–Picture/director–The Shape of Water
2019–Picture/director/screenplay–Parasite
2020–Picture/director–Nomadland
2022–Picture/director/screenplay–Everything Everywhere All At Once
2023–Picture/director–Oppenheimer
2024–Picture/director/screenplay–Anora

Split years:

2012–Argo – Picture, Life of Pi – Director
2015–Spotlight–Picture, The Revenant – Director
2016–Moonlight–Picture, La La Land- Director
2018–Green Book — Picture, ROMA – Director
2021–CODA — Picture, The Power of the Dog – Director

What drives a split year? If a film that is the frontrunner is divisive, it may not prevail on a preferential ballot. I don’t know. I could see it going either way.

For my predictions this week, I’ll predict a split. But first, let’s look at what I was predicting last year around this time. I had every single prediction right except Original Screenplay:

Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
~~A Real Pain~~
~~Sing Sing~~
Dune 2
~~Hard Truths~~
~~All We Imagine as Light~~
~~Gladiator II (not yet seen)~~
Alts: ~~Saturday Night~~, The Substance, A Complete Unknown, ~~Joker Folie a Deux~~

Best Director
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
~~Edward Berger, Conclave~~
Jaques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
~~Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light~~
Alt. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance~~; Ridley Scott, Gladiator II; Jason Reitman, Saturday Night; RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys; Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain~~

Best Actor
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
~~Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Folie a Deux~~
~~Daniel Craig, Queer~~
Alts: ~~Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain; Paul Mescal, Gladiator II; John David Washington, The Piano Lesson~~

Best Actress
Mikey Madison, Anora
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
~~Angelina Jolie, Maria~~
~~Nicole Kidman, Baby Girl~~
~~Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun~~

Alts: ~~Amy Adams, Nightbitch;~~ Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; ~~Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie a Deux; Julianne Moore, the Room Next Door~~

Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
~~Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (unless lead?)~~
~~Stanley Tucci, Conclave~~
~~Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson~~
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Alts: Yura Borisov, Anora; ~~Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Paul Raci, Sing Sing; Pedro Pascal, Gladiator II~~

Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
~~Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson~~
~~Lady Gaga, Joker Folie a Deux (unless lead)~~
~~Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez~~
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Alts: ~~Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys; Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night; Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door;~~ Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Original Screenplay
The Brutalist
Anora
A Real Pain
~~Emilia Pérez~~
~~Sing Sing~~
Alt. ~~Saturday NightThe Seed of the Sacred Fig~~

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Nickel Boys
~~The Piano Lesson~~
~~Gladiator II~~
~~Joker Folie a Deux~~

Just as 2016, the first year of Trump was a crazy year, I think this one will be crazy too. I just don’t how it will land. If not for Sinners, One Battle is an easier call. If not for One Battle, Sinners is an easier call. Maybe this will change. But right now, my gut is telling me that Hamnet is the one that is driven by emotion, appeals to actors, isn’t violent or divisive, and is produced by Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes.

Now, the question becomes who wins Best Director. This also sets up a adaptation war between One Battle and Hamnet, though I think Hamnet takes it.

Best Picture