Nextgen Oscarwatcher: Best Supporting Actress and a Grassroots campaign for Amy Madigan

Continuing with the above-the-line categories, there is now conversation to be had about one of the most ambiguous categories in the eyes of many people: Best Supporting Actress. For the entire year, so many have been wondering who could be crowned the next recipient in a category that has been awarding people who have never won before for over thirty years (the last being Dianne Wiest), with still no such consensus frontrunner just five months before the ceremony. From veterans to newcomers, there is still a ton of competition to be discussed.

Found on the Award Expert app, here is what is being predicted at the moment.

Far out in front, for the entire year, has been Ariana Grande-Butera for Wicked: For Good, considered to be the runner-up to Zoe Saldaña last year. Many believe the culmination of the musical’s story will result in an above-the-line win somewhere, and this seems like the ideal place to do it. Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas have been steady for Trier’s Sentimental Value, though the strength of that film, or lack thereof, in certain reviews post-Cannes suggests that one could miss a stronger contender overall. Teyana Taylor’s performance in One Battle After Another has quickly become a formidable one, many believing that she makes her short screen time matter, really resonating with a lot of people who have seen it. With Chase Infiniti going lead, it seems there is a clear path for her to squeak in here.

Gwyneth Paltrow (and Marty Supreme in general) is still a question mark even a week after the screening. Although her performance and the film have been praised, whether it’s enough to solidify a nomination for her is uncertain, with Odessa A’zion being hailed as the bigger standout in the category. The real person, though, the one who many have doubts about but could very easily go all the way, is Amy Madigan for Weapons. An underdog from the very start, many didn’t (and still don’t think) that Cregger’s film had much of a shot in any sort of awards traction whatsoever. However, as more and more people have seen contenders, and less and less solid competition has presented itself, many think her performance, combined with a solid narrative, could be enough to put her over the finish line not only for a nom, but a potential win.

Warner Bros has had a banner year, and Madigan, combined with Coogler and PTA winning Oscars, would be a sign of just how dominant their presence in the film year of 2025 has been.

Emily Blunt gives a solid performance in the Other Safdies’ film, The Smashing Machine, but the mixed critical reception and lack of financial success mean that it’s more likely than not going to fall by the wayside.

If I had to predict the five right now, I would probably lean with:

• Amy Madigan, Weapons
• Ariana Grande-Butera, Wicked: For Good
• Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
• Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
• Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme

Oscar Predictions for week of October 11^th

With the New York Film Festival wrapping up and just AFI left to screen certain films, it seemed like a good opportunity to actually change for predictions, with confidence being more present in certain inferences and less so in others. A few notable changes include

• Avatar Fire and Ash over The Voice of Hind Rajab in Best Picture
• Ryan Coogler back in director over Joachim Trier
• With Paul Mescal confirmed for Supporting, he now takes the spot over Lindo while Ethan Hawke goes into Lead Actor.
• Jay Kelly in Original Screenplay over Is This Thing On?
• Chase Infiniti (after making the jump to lead) in the category over Emma Stone
• Odessa A’zion in Supporting Actress over Infiniti who has now gone Lead

Among a couple others that are below the line, but it’s still early.

Without further ado, here are the predictions:

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Sinners
4. Marty Supreme
5. Wicked: For Good
6. Frankenstein
7. Sentimental Value
8. It Was Just An Accident
9. The Testament of Ann Lee
10.  Avatar: Fire and Ash

Alts: The Netflix Trio (House of Dynamite, Jay Kelly, Wake Up Dead Man),  No Other Choice, Is This Thing On?, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, Bugonia,

Best Director

1.  Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident
5. Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Alts: Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value Park Chan-Wook, No Other Choice

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Alt: Emma Stone, Bugonia  Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Best Actor

1. Timotheé Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2.  Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
5. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Alt Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan, Weapons
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
5. Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme

Alts: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value, Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Best Supporting Actor

1.  Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
3.  Paul Mescal, Hamnet
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Alt: Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. It Was Just An Accident
4. Marty Supreme
5. Jay Kelly

Alts: A House of Dynamite, Jay Kelly

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Bugonia
4. Wake Up Dead Man
5. Frankenstein

Alts: No Other Choice, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Casting

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
5. Hamnet

Alt: Weapons, Wake Up Dead Man, Jay Kelly, Sentimental Value

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value
2. It Was Just An Accident
3. The Voice of Hind Rajab
4. The Secret Agent
5. No Other Choice

(Alt: Sirât)

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Cutting Through Rocks
3. Seeds
4. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
5. The Cycle of Love

(Alt: Mr. Nobody Against Putin)  

Best Animated Feature

1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
5. Elio

(Alt: A Magnificent Life)

Best Cinematography

1. Hamnet
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Marty Supreme
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. Weapons

Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. 28 Years Later
4. Wolf Man
5. The Smashing Machine

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Superman
4. Tron: Ares
5. F1

Best Sound

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. F1
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Score

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Song

1. The Girl In The Bubble from Wicked: For Good
2. No Place Like Home from Wicked: For Good
3. Dear Me from Diane Warren Relentless
4. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
5. I Lied to You from Sinners

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