NextGen Oscarwatcher: The DGA, Who Sticks Out? Who Has The Narrative?

The DGA: Who sticks out, and who has the narrative?

By: Scott Kernen

Continuing on with the guild conversations, let’s point towards what is considered to be the second most significant precursor to Best Picture regarding guilds (outside of PGA), that being the Directors Guild. Though more known to be a highly accurate precursor to Best Director (evidenced by their incredible track record in the past 15 years, only getting one Best Picture or Best Director year incorrectly (2019, the year of Parasite), it’s highly sought after, and indicates more than anything, broad support. 

The Directors Guild Consensus

Taking a look at the Award Expert App, let’s see what the community is currently predicting for the category. 

The five listed above have been incredibly consistent throughout the entire year. Even back in the early months of June or July, these five films have been a part of, or entirely in, the lineup overall. An overwhelming 90% of users believe Paul Thomas Anderson will win the Directors Guild for Best Feature Film, and, based on the reviews, goodwill, and scope of the project, it’s a safe bet. “It’s just his time” is something many believe, and, given the number of Directors who either outright single him out or host DGA screenings for his film, that sentiment is shared with industry voters. 

Ryan Coogler is the runner-up here with the community, and truthfully, I can understand it. The populist appeal of Sinners and Coogler’s popularity with industry, specifically guild voters, makes a lot of sense. There remains the smallest chance of an upset here, and it would be incredible if Sinners just dominated the guilds. Coogler would become the first Black director to win in all of DGA history.  

Chloé Zhao is third, and, as a previous winner, it makes sense for Hamnet to have a presence here. There remains also a small but plausible chance of a win here, due to the reverence and respect Zhao commands, which have enabled her to create her most studio-friendly project without sacrificing an inch of her vision or artistic sensibilities.

 Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme feels like a project the guilds will respond to. A comedy-drama sports flick about success starring America’s most popular male star, who very well might just win, is primed to do well with a branch of nearly 20,000 voting members.

The fifth slot is fairly tricky, and all comes down to what some think is in the top five for best picture. 

The community still believes Trier’s dialogue-driven Sentimental Value is strong enough to appeal to guilds, but the reservations about it are more apparent. If anything, the film to look at is Guillermo Del Toro’s Frankenstein, which is becoming increasingly popular as more people see it. A period-driven but modern “perspective” on the story without sacrificing any of the thematic resonance of the novel it is based on, Del Toro’s film very clearly is Netflix’s strongest film, and will do well, incredibly, below the line, and above the line. 

There’s still a chance Jon M. Chu shows up for Wicked: For Good, but one has to wonder whether DGA voters see that film as a “director’s medium” or more of an actor’s showcase, which might have contributed to Chu missing last year. 

If I had to guess the DGA five, it would probably be along the lines of

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
5. Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein

Then comes the question, who misses whom?

Looking at the recent history of DGA and AMPAS this decade (the 2020s),

On average, one film misses (often a populist, steak-eater film), for something that is far more “internationally coded.”

This remains a coin flip for me between Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident and Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value. If I had to choose, it would be Panahi, because of his name recognition in the industry, and the “importance” of said film, according to the consensus. Sentimental Value is my favorite film of the year, and should be landing everywhere it is in contention for. But the question remains, does the narrative and “importance” of It Was Just An Accident outweigh the timelessness of Sentimental Value in certain categories, such as this one?

We also can’t forget about the idea that both Panahi and Trier get in at the expense of two of the DGA contenders, in my mind, Safdie and Del Toro. 

If I had to guess the correlation, it would be:

DGA: PTA, Coogler, Zhao, Safdie, Del Toro

AMPAS: PTA, Zhao, Coogler, Safdie, Panahi

Oscar Predictions for this week

Not much has changed in terms of nomination prediction, outside of 

• Putting Predator: Badlands into VFX over Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Sinners
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
6. Wicked: For Good
7. It Was Just An Accident
8. Sentimental Value
9. The Testament of Ann Lee
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Alts: Jay Kelly, Weapons, Blue Moon, The Voice of Hind Rajab, No Other Choice

Best Director

1.  Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident

Alts: Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Alts: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue,  

Best Actor

1. Timotheé Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2.  Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly

Alts: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams, Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan, Weapons
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
5. Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme

Alts: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value, Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme,  Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Best Supporting Actor

1.  Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
3.  Paul Mescal, Hamnet
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
5. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

Alt: Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein 

Best Original Screenplay

1. 1. Sinners
   2. It Was Just An Accident
   3. Sentimental Value
   4. Marty Supreme
   5. Jay Kelly

Alts: Blue Moon, The Secret Agent, Weapons

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Wake Up Dead Man
4. Frankenstein
5. No Other Choice

Alts: Bugonia, Train Dreams 

Best Casting

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Hamnet
5. Marty Supreme

Alt: Weapons, Wake Up Dead Man, Jay Kelly, Sentimental Value

Best International Feature

1. It Was Just An Accident
2. Sentimental Value
3. No Other Choice
4. The Secret Agent
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab

(Alts: Sirât, The President’s Cake)

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Cutting Through Rocks
3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
4. The Alabama Situation
5. The Cycle of Love

(Alt: Mr. Nobody Against Putin)  

Best Animated Feature

1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
5. Elio

(Alts: Scarlet and A Magnificent Life)

Best Cinematography

1. Hamnet
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Train Dreams
5. Frankenstein

Best Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. F1

Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. 28 Years Later
4. The Smashing Machine
5. Weapons

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Superman
4. F1
5. Predator: Badlands

Best Sound

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. F1
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Score

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Song

1. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
2. I Lied to You from Sinners
3. The Girl In The Bubble from Wicked: For Good
4. Dear Me from Diane Warren Relentless
5. Clothed By The Sun from: The Testament of Ann Lee

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