Gurus of Gold November Update, Argo Leads

The Gurus of Gold over at Movie City News has put out their first full list of the top categories (minus screenplay) for November. The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg is at last a part of the group.

As you can see, top predictors Dave Karger, Steve Pond and David Poland are all sticking with Silver Linings Playbook to win. The rest of us are going for Argo, while Anne Thompson sticks with Life of Pi. Marc Olsen is down for Lincoln.

Last year, roughly around this time, in the lead categories the name in the second slot won the Oscar. The Decendents led, The Artist won. Clooney led, DuJardin won. Davis led, Streep won. That was last year. Go back a year prior to that around the same time, or a little later, Gurus of Gold had The King’s Speech at number one (after Toronto) and David Fincher to win Best Director.

Previously, November charts looked like this:

1. Up in the Air
2. Precious
3. The Hurt Locker* (opened already)
4. Invictus
5. An Education
6. Up
7. Nine
8. The Lovely Bones
9. Inglourious Basterds
10. A Serious Man

The year prior, the earliest Gurus chart I could find was November 18, 2008, here is how it looked:

1. Slumdog Millionaire* (opened already)
2. Benjamin Button
3. Milk
4. Frost/Nixon
5. Revolutionary Road

Only one film was replaced off of this list. Funnily enough, though, the following week, Slumdog and Button had flipped.

Going back to 2007, in early November, more like now, it looked like this:

1. Atonement
2. No Country for Old Men* (opened already)
3. American Gangster
4. Charlie Wilson’s War
5. There Will Be Blood

Michael Clayton was number 6, Juno was trailing at 9.

Going back to 2006, we don’t have an early November chart, just a late one. It looked like this:

1. Dreamgirls
2. The Departed* (opened already)
3. The Queen
4. Babel
5. Little Miss Sunshine

So only Dreamgirls turned out to be wrong. Going back to November 2005, it looked like this:

1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Munich
3. Walk the Line
4. Memoirs of a Geisha
5. Good Night, Good Luck

I think this is a funny year because only one Guru, Jeff Wells, had Crash on his list. Kris Tapley had it at number 6.

The opened already thing is key, I think, at least in past years. That means it’s been kicked around a while, the expectations game has been lifted off of it. Since 2005, later entries don’t do as well. Why, because the Oscar race happens earlier and earlier.

Here is how actor is shaking down: