It isn’t that the Eddie’s win last night makes it suddenly apparent that The Social Network will win – there is precedent for both films taking Best Picture. Films have won the three major guilds, lost the Eddie but still won Best Picture (American Beauty is one, No Country for Old Men is another), and there are films that won all three guilds, lost the Eddie, and then lost Best Picture (I think Apollo 13 is the only one to do that). So you can’t really hang your hat on the Eddies. What it did tell us, though, is that you’re probably not looking at a traditional sweepie. The reason being, movies like Schindler’s List, Return of the King and Slumdog Millionaire don’t come back for their 30%: They come back FOR EVERYTHING. They take it all, baby. That The King’s Speech won zip heading into the guilds puts it already in the territory of an unprecedented win. That The Social Network won everything heading into the guilds puts it in the precedent TO WIN, regardless of its losing the major guilds, even the DGA. So, just be clear that precedent and history supports a Social Network win MORE than it does a King’s Speech win.
But … but … the peeps who never get it wrong are all unanimously predicting The King’s Speech to take it. They base their information on talking to Academy members and the general good will of the film, not to mention the BAFTAMPAS connection — BAFTA members who are now Academy members. Yes, they should worry that Fincher took the BAFTA for Director, and yes, they should worry that The King’s Speech didn’t win the Eddie. But that doesn’t mean it won’t win Best Pic, it just means it probably won’t SWEEP. I know, nothing new – you readers have been screaming at me about this for weeks now. Me, I like to dig up factoids to back up my silly theories.
However, I did find it more than mildly amusing that our friends across the pond at The Guardian are ALL PREDICTING The Social Network to win Best Picture. One is predicting The Social Network for Picture but Tom Hooper for Director. Of course, since they have things like “dark horse: Winter’s Bone” you have to figure we “experts” over here differ greatly with their “experts” over there.
But, as Guy Lodge pointed out on Twitter, all of them unanimously pick The Social Network as the film to beat. Interesting, isn’t it? It could be an Oscars cliffhanger.
Needless to say, this is my favorite quote about The Social Network, and I have to agree with it:
A superb piece of film-making in every respect, probably the first important movie that could only have been made in this century. It brings a sharp eye and a critical intelligence to bear upon a remarkable phenomenon without appearing either dazzled by youth or querulously fogeyish.
So let’s see what the AMPAS does. Awarding The Social Network would be an unusual, non-traditional move. Awarding The King’s Speech is the expected outcome. We’ve said just about everything there is to be said about it. I know I’ve been writing about these two movies for going on half a year already and I want to put this baby to bed.
One last note: I will never stop laughing if the Guardian peeps turn out to be right: they could predict our own Oscars better than we could.
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