My friend and tipster has written in to explain his reasoning behind the possibility (no one said definite) sneak attack of Melissa Leo. I though you all might find it interesting. But before you lecture me about the validity of tips, let me just say that this is just food for thought – it shouldn’t influence your predictions. It is speculation and entertainment, nothing more, in a dry and drearily predictable season. Take it for what it is, the same way you should take my dream last night that saw Streep and Penn the winners.
It’s true that there are a lot of big names behind Leo – like Clint Eastwood, Dustin Hoffman, Roger Ebert, etc. But here are more specific reasons. After the jump.
WHY MELISSA LEO IS A SERIOUS THREAT TO WINSLET/STREEP
I’m not debating that her chances of actually winning are a long shot. But a LOT of actor votes are going Leo, and it will play a role in the outcome. And it’s very close.1. Melissa Leo and Penelope Cruz have the same manager, Jason Weinberg, who is well known as one of the best awards strategists in town. He steered his other client Hillary Swank to two wins.
2. In the same way that Forest Whitaker and Cate Blanchett were lobbying for Cotillard last year and Dustin Hoffman for Theron in MONSTER, Leo has the open support from heavyweights like Dustin Hoffman, Quentin Tarantino, Whoopi Goldberg, Ron Howard, Marcia Gay Harden, Josh Brolin and Sean Penn who are rather open with the other members about their love for Leo’s thesping in the film.
3. Colleen Camp
4. Untitled Entertainment and William Morris have steered all of their clients who are Academy members to vote for Leo.
5. She is getting major support from Roger Ebert, who helped steer Halle Berry and Crash to their respective wins.
6. Melissa Leo is American. Yes, Cotillard was a foreigner last year, but her biggest rival was also a foreigner (Christie).
7. Leo’s performance is especially relevant in the current economic climate.
8. FROZEN RIVER was released on DVD during the voting, a factor which aided Denzel Washington’s win for TRAINING DAY.
9. More people in the Academy saw Frozen River before nomination time than you think. The fact that it was nominated in more than one category… for acting and writing proves that it was seen by more than just actors, as the screenplay nod KO’ed other bigger movies like BURN AFTER READING, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED, SYNECDOCHE NEW YORK (now that is a movie that NO ONE in the Academy seemed to bother watching… way over their heads).
10. There has been a backlash against Winslet and READER in general since its nominations for several reasons:
a. DARK KNIGHT enthusiasts are attempting to shut out the film entirely so that it wins NO Oscars.
b. Did you forget how many Jews are in the Academy? Some have found the film offensive and Winslet’s character to be repugnant, detestable and unsympathetic.
c. As I said to you in my email before, Winslet’s shameless campaigning that she “fucking wants an Oscar” (Vanity Fair article) lacks the subtlety of successful campaigns in the past and is offputting to a lot of voting members.
11. Leo is this year’s Tilda Swinton, a relatively unknown Hollywood outsider who had a interesting and varide body of work leading up to her nomination. Equate Swinton’s snub for THE DEEP END to Leo’s snub for 21 GRAMS.
12. I must also remind you that there are 1200 actors in the Actors branch of the Academy, most of whom are not movie stars. There’s a certain romanticism involved with casting a Melissa Leo ballot as Leo reminds these actors more of themselves than movie stars like Streep and Winslet… One Academy member said that, “Voting for Melissa Leo is like voting for one of us: she’s a hardworking actor who just wants to do great work. In the same way that Halle Berry may have opened the door for women of color to land more elevated work in Hollywood, a Melissa Leo win could energize Hollywood in the same way and open the door for more work for character actors, namely out of work middle aged actresses.”
13. The argument that Melissa Leo cannot win because she is not a known entity should be completely disregarded. She knocked out Scott Thomas, Blanchett, Michelle Williams, Beckinsale and Hawkins out of the running so it’s a moot point really.
At the end of the day, actors will vote for the actors who moved them the most. And may the best performance, not campaign, win.
94 Responses for "The Melissa Leo Thing"
I finally saw Frozen River last night, and hers is my favorite performance of the five (well, four; I am begrudgingly watching Changeling tonight). But if the actors love her so much why didn’t she win the SAG? It’s Kate’s turn; it has nothing to do with the performance.
To Point #12.
So a Vote for Winslet would be a vote for a outsider, who is a lazy actor and only wants to make commercial garbage?
And how old was Helen Mirren when she won? Did she do nothing for older actors?
Eh, the people who win in dreams never win in real life. I’ve had Sissy Spacek (in ‘02), PSH (this year, believe it or not), and, worst of all, JOHN MCCAIN winning in my dreams.
Hopefully this just means Rourke and Winslet are the winners (not that I would have any problem with Penn winning, since he’s pretty equal in my eyes to Rourke in terms of how deserving he is, but all the fanatical cult-like Streep worshippers getting their desperate wish at the expense of poor overdue Winslet would be too much to take, THANK GOD it’s so unlikely).
After having read this, I desperately want leo to win. Seriously.
“As I said to you in my email before, Winslet’s shameless campaigning that she “fucking wants an Oscar” (Vanity Fair article) lacks the subtlety of successful campaigns in the past and is offputting to a lot of voting members.”
People are strange. On the one hand, they want actors to show up and speak as sincere as possible, but on the other hand…probably not?
When Winslet says she wants that fucking oscar, she says it with a wink, I bet.
She has a life, she has children, she would survive a defeat.
Very good article….I said in the very beginning that there was no way Melissa Leo would have been nominated for an oscar, and Sasha, I think I told you to just forget about her – then I saw the movie and I changed my tune….so much so, that I warned people not to discount Leo before the noms came out for the SAG awards….she has been around for a long time and has worked with a lot of actors….she has respect there….now I don’t know if she has enough for the win – but I would be thrilled….
now, I have a question – I have been sitting here for about 10 minutes not wanting to ask this for fear of looking stupid….but to no avail….I’ll take that chance….
what is the Colleen Camp (Yvette to me, she will always be Yvette) connection?
I’m actually predicting Leo for the win. She’ll pull an Adrien Brody and snatch from more “known” actors. I know her chances are slim but hey No Guts, No GLORY!
Personally I would be as happy as a kid in a candy factory. Melisso Leo gave the BEST performance out the 5 ladies nominated.
No seriously…what’s the Colleen Camp connection?
LOL @filmboymichael I love Clue!! such an underrated movie! I love Madeline Kahn’s performance in it!
Melissa Leo and Meryl Streep take too many no 1 votes and Kate Winslet does as well. We will hear one of them that night and I have a feeling that It wont be Kate. Just a feeling, perhaps not so important because she has a lot of support to finally get an Oscar.
It would be fun to see Tom O’Neill’s head explode if Leo won.
Alfredo – clue is and will always remain one of my favourite comedies of all time….
“I hated her so much….fl…flames….on the side of my face…”
Performance wise, Leo deserves it. The actors’ branch has a greater influence, hence the prize goes to hers.
Surprisingly, no one even mentioned that Winslet may be the female equivalent of Paul Newman, one of the best actors of all time who received his first Oscar on his seventh nomination (The Color of Money, 1986).
At the end of the day, only one will be Best Actress. And the Oscar should go to… Melissa Leo.
As Twofaces writes, i also want Leo to win now… And i was just talking with my brother about this category. Kate Winslet pisses me of. I want my Oscar Oscar Oscar. Relax women. Its just a golden statue. You´ve already proved that you are a great actress.
Dominik, you took the words right out of my mouth. Winslet was being honest and cheeky. I guess that’s shameless in Hollywood-speak? Sad.
The only point I find somewhat persuasive is the fact that many voters saw DVDs of “Frozen River,” which really does help out in the end. But did Academy voters get “The Reader” screeners? Not sure, but this analysis feels like it’s grasping. If anyone is beating Winslet on Sunday, it is the masterful Meryl Streep.
I’m not surprised at this at all. I mean in a “somewhat” crowded field this year she pulled off a nomination(Over the likes of Sally Hawkins and Kristen Scott Thomas). She was bound to have some big backers behind her. She gave IMO, right next to Kate Winslet in The Reader the best female lead performance of the year. Sure she isn’t a big name but clearly she has respect among academy voters.
It’s a damn compelling argument. Still, that SAG love should have been there, even if the actors all recognize Streep as their Queen.
I’m seeing Frozen River before the Oscars if it kills me.
Back on planet earth….
Leo has only a few critics awards and NO major award for her performance. Tilda had the BAFTA.
Leo beat out some big names like Blanchett to get the nomination but to me, the nom is the big reward for her performance.
You can’t compare her to Denzel because they both had DVDs come out before the awards. This was the most ridiculous item on this list. There were many other factors that were more important to his win (snubbed before, race, …Russell Crowe)
Every situation is unique! You have to look at the competition each year.
Leo has support and a lot of things going for her, but so do the others.
Kate will win. Dark Knight supporter may try to shut the movie out, but how much pull do they have. They couldn’t even get their movie nominated. And don’t forget Harvey.
I guess I do too, now (see Frozen River before Sunday). Not that I haven’t wanted to, I just kinda figured that I didn’t need to rush since Leo wasn’t a front runner. But a conversation with one of the few I know who did see the film absolutely raved about Leo’s performance and after reading this, I’ll rent it tonight. If I hadn’t watched “The Pianist” before Adrian Brody won his surprise win wouldn’t have been as meaningful. And while I really don’t expect that she’ll win, it’d be nice to be in her camp should Melissa Leo take it on Sunday.
And would someone fill us in – what’s the Colleen Camp reference?
Oh, and Sasha, I believe in your dream. Sean Penn IS winning.
“…many voters saw DVDs of “Frozen River,” which really does help out in the end. But did Academy voters get “The Reader” screeners?
Frozen River was iin the first wave of screeners, really early in the season, way before Thanksgiving. It didn’t have much competition by the DVD player for weeks. The Reader screener was among the very last of the season — but because it came after the rush, it stood out from the pack too. Both played well on the home screen — I mean the 1.85:1 screen ratio and intimate subjects work better for me on TV than widescreen epics.
The screener issue, for me, is a wash with maybe a slight tip in The Reader’s favor because it was the final great surprise of the season. Plus, I know this is superficial, but The Reader screener came in ultra-elegant packaging. The Frozen River DVD was bare bones.
My reasoning for Melissa Leo winning the Oscar:
1) She IS the entire movie.
Leo has already given an Oscar caliber performance in 21 Grams
2) The real breakthrough performance of the lot.
3) Leo needs the Oscar more than any other nominee
4) Frozen River IS Leo’s best performance (The Reader, Doubt, & Changeling are not while Rachel getting Married probably is for Hathaway but the Academy didn’t warm up to that film look at the Lumet screenplay snub)
5) The Reader backlash
6) Kate nominated for the wrong performance
7) Streep’s Doubt performance wasn’t bullet proof by the critics.
(If she was a more known actress a nomination should have been a lock & win was possible)
9) Oscar voters hate the fated winners (i.e Winslet this year, Christie last year)
10) The screenplay love goes a long way for this Indie.
I have seen all five nominated performances except Hathaway’s, which I hope to see this evening. I saw Streep in mid-November (screening), Winslet in early December (screening), Jolie in early January (screening) and Leo in mid-January (screener). Rachel Getting Married will be the only one I pay $ to see, so it better be good. So far, I liked Melissa Leo’s performance (and film) the best.
I do think she’s going to do a Ralph Nader on Streep and enable Winslet to win (in the wrong year for a wrong film).
“Dark Knight supporter may try to shut the movie out”
Hate to state the obvious, but if The Dark Knight supporters had any power, TDK would’ve been nommed for Best Picture and Best Director.
Should win : Anne Hathaway .
Will win : Kate Winslet .
Here are a few reasons.
1 . The Reader Is nominated for Best Film .
This is a film that The Academy has loved , and this is the only category where it has a chance to win .
How deep is that love ?
2 . Kate is due , was nominated several times before .
3 . Kate is 33 , and pretty , and nude in the film .
Academy loves that .
4. Kate won : GG , BAFTA .
5 . She had another great performance in the year : RR .
Fans of that film will ALSO vote for her .
6 . Harvey Weinstein .
7 . She is British , all the brits vote as a bloc , mostly .
8 . Independent film supporters will divide between Melissa & Anne .
9 . Roger Ebert WANTS Leo to win , but he PREDICTS Kate to win .
Unlike CRASH .
10 . Actors-1,243 . Most of them will vote for Leo.
BUT The Total Voting Members – 5829 . Winners are selected by the Academy membership as a whole.
Nobody apart from the actors has SEEN Frozen River .
I admit some have seen it , but the majority have not .
People from ALL other branches will vote mostly for Kate .
11 . There is no major backlash against Kate , she is well liked and respected .
12 . The Reader has beaten WALL -E / TDK .
How does Frozen River stand a chance ?
13 . Melissa is unknown .
Unknown commodities never win Oscars ., WITHOUT WINNING ANY MAJOR PRECURSORS.
14 . HOLOCAUST . NAZIS . NUDE .
PERFECT 3 way .
15 . It is written .
If Kate Winslet loses the award , it will be one of the biggest upsets in recent memory , because virtually everyone is predicting her to win .
Those who think she will lose , think that Meryl will win .
Not Leo.
BTW , I would not mind if she lost .
“I hated her so much….fl…flames….on the side of my face…”
LOL…Madeline Kahn is the GREATEST!!!
But back to the serious stuff. Kate Winslet does not deserve to win this year. Plain and simple.
Who Should Win: Anne Hathaway
Who I Wouldn’t Mind Winning: MELISSA LEO
THANKS TO THIS POST, I’M HOPING FOR A MELISSA LEO WIN NOW.
@Nyc Oscar Buff
1) She IS the entire movie.
-OK, She was the best thing about the movie. I’ll give you this one
2) The real breakthrough performance of the lot.
Just because it is a breakthrough performance does not equal oscar. I don’t have the statistics but i don’t think this has any influence.
3) Leo needs the Oscar more than any other nominee
When have they voted based on who needs it. Not a factor
4) Frozen River IS Leo’s best performance (The Reader, Doubt, & Changeling are not while Rachel getting Married probably is for Hathaway but the Academy didn’t warm up to that film look at the Lumet screenplay snub)
By your logic, Scent of a woman is Al Pacino’s best performance.
5) The Reader backlash
Ok, but not a reason for melissa to win
6) Kate nominated for the wrong performance
This is definately debatable. The people who nominated her for the Reader are the ones voting, so I think Kate is fine
7) Streep’s Doubt performance wasn’t bullet proof by the critics.
Leo has already given an Oscar caliber performance in 21 Grams
(If she was a more known actress a nomination should have been a lock & win was possible)
Kate has given tons of Oscar caliber performances. No wins yet
9) Oscar voters hate the fated winners (i.e Winslet this year, Christie last year)
And Helen Mirren, Resse, swank for MDB, Theron etc. Christie was not as much a lock as the winners from previous years.
10) The screenplay love goes a long way for this Indie.
This is a good sign for Leo but Reader had screenplay love and best picture love.
Melissa Leo gave a sensibly heartfelt and human performance which was expected of any good indie movies. But can she overwhelm the emotional gravity brought on by Winslet in her poignant and powerful court-room scene alone?
It’ll be one of the most triumphant upsets ever if Leo wins on Sunday. BUT it would also tantamount to a shameful travesty if Winslet or Streep loses to her! Winslet should garner enough ‘pure’ votes to edge out whatever backings Leo has.
Of course, there is also the Streep camp from SAG who wants to see her finally walk up the steps again after 26 years!
Whoever wins it’ll be an electrifying moment indeed!
I’m with Dorothy — am renting Frozen River today. People I know and respect rave about her performance. As much as I like Winslet’s work overall, I feel The Reader is not her best performance. The same holds true for Streep — her work in Doubt is very good but not her best and not the best of the current nominees. Just my opinion.
That said, lots of people win Oscars for performances that are not their best.
Not to mention there’s a huge theater marquis with Leo’s picture on it and For Your Consideration Best Actress posted on a pivotal intersection on Wilshire in Beverly Hills… I pass by it every day on my way to work. Brilliant move on part of Sony Classics.
If Leo wins, no one will care. Her nomination has already helped her career.
kate will and should win. End of discussion.
I can’t believe we are talking about the Leo; her performance was the usual over the top emotional oscar-bait performance.
Kate Winslet doesn’t have Jason Weinberg behind her.
i’ve been quiet long enough – based on that statement, you haven’t even seen Frozen River….it’s a performance of pitch perfect restraint and realism.
I’ve been saying for weeks that I think Leo wins it
My selfish reason:
I have €6.50 put on her winning at 40 odds. She’d better win
.
“…her performance was the usual over the top emotional oscar-bait performance”
and Kate Winslet’s performance/role wasn’t???
I don’t believe in an actor being “overdue” for an Oscar.
Ok, I will grant that this tipster makes a compelling argument. Yes, there is clearly support for Leo. But I still don’t think she’s going to win. I will address his points:
1) Leo may have Jason Weinberg, but Winslet has Harvey. Nuff said.
2) Adrien Brody and Marion Cotillard had their FELLOW NOMINEES openly campaigning for them – i.e. Jack Nicholson and Cate Blanchett. By doing so, Nicholson and Blanchett basically took votes away from themselves and gave them to their respective picks. Melissa Leo, on the other hand, does NOT have her fellow nominees campaigning for her. Also, in Cotillard’s case especially, she was clearly the best that year, as her work in La Vie En Rose was nothing short of astonishing, whereas Julie Christie – the frontrunner – was honestly nothing special. Both Leo and Winslet was amazing this year (and Winslet was amazing in two roles), so I wouldn’t say that there is a clear winner this year.
3) ??
4) Not sure why these organizations are “steering” their clients to vote for Leo, but as many people have pointed out, the Academy does not like being told who to vote for. So I wouldn’t give this too much credence.
5) Halle Berry and Crash won the SAG awards before their eventual Oscar wins – Leo has won nothing. Ebert doesn’t have as much sway as you think.
6) I really don’t think the American thing counts much (especially since ALL of the actor winners last year were foreigners). Also, as HBK pointed out, the Brit Academy members vote in a block.
7) This may be, but people in Hollywood haven’t been affected by the economy too much, otherwise they wouldn’t be putting on such a glitzy, diamonds-raining-from-the-ceiling Oscar show this Sunday – they would actually feel that it’s tasteless (which it is).
9) Yes, the actors saw Frozen River and nominated her. Most of the other branches, however, have not seen this film.
10) If there is such a backlash against The Reader, than how did it get nominated in the first place? As HBK pointed out, TDK supporters couldn’t even get their film nominated, so obviously there aren’t enough of them. And yes, there are a lot of Jews in the Academy, but if they were so offended by The Reader, then why did they nominate it for Best Pic? And why did they push Kate’s performance in The Reader into the Best Actress slot, and NOT nominate her for Revolutionary Road? I just don’t buy this argument. If there was such a backlash against Kate, she would not have won the SAG, and she would not have won the BAFTA. People love Kate. And she’s doing no more campaigning than Marion Cotillard did last year – Cotillard was EVEYWHERE last year.
11) Swinton won the BAFTA award before her eventual Oscar win. Leo wasn’t even nominated for a BAFTA. Nuff said.
12) I remember in 2003/2004, a lot of big name actors were openly proclaiming that they wanted Mystic River to win, and NOT Return of the King. Many actors likely voted for Mystic River. But ROTK still won the Oscar, because actors only make up about 1/5 of the Academy. And the rest of the Academy voted for ROTK.
13) This may be, but the only time an “unknown” ever wins an Oscar is if the film they are in is VERY “known” (such as Louise Fletcher in One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest).
As for the romantic notion of voting for a “working actor” instead of a star, I would argue that Winslet is so beloved not only because she is always fantastic, but because she mostly doesn’t do big “star” vehicles like other movie stars (*cough*Hathaway*cough*). Winslet mostly does lots of risky indie films. So in that sense, Winslet is more like a “working actor” because she mostly doesn’t do bland roles just to cash a big paycheck, and instead does complicated roles in small indies that she feels passionate about (such as Hideous Kinky).
So, in the end, I am still predicting that the ALWAYS brilliant Kate Winslet will win the Oscar. And frankly, she deserves it.
Even before the nomination announced, I have stood up for her in this blog, but it made feel like a little David surrounded by many Goliaths. I am happy that still has a chance to win. Well probably she will not but it’s great that some very well known actors acknowledge her performance.
Melissa no matter what you have won my heart with that performance.
I do think there is such thing as an actor being “overdue”, but I wouldn’t say Kate Winslet is one of those people. She’s still young and can easily win an Oscar, if not now than soon. Peter O’Toole (should have won for The Lion in Winter, if not for Lawrence of Arabia) is someone who could be considered overdue. He will probably pass away Oscar-less.
Kate’s role was harder. Leo was great. The only actress that doesn’t deserve to be there is Jolie (Hawkins should have taken that spot). But Kate took a very challenging role and made it seem effortless. Hathaway took an even harder role and made it seem even more natural. Hathaway is not going to win, I guess, but she will siphon enough votes from the would-be Leo voters (people voting based on merit, independent films, actors etc).
If actors loved Leo enough, she would have won SAG. Meryl did. I don’t think she stands much of a chance.
[HBK: Sorry a couple of your comments got caught in the spam filter. I've unleashed them. Email me, ok?]
“As much as I like Winslet’s work overall, I feel The Reader is not her best performance. The same holds true for Streep — her work in Doubt is very good but not her best and not the best of the current nominees. Just my opinion.
That said, lots of people win Oscars for performances that are not their best.”
I am tired of hearing this. It does not matter if it is best performance in an actor’s whole career. It depends on the competition in each year, who has the best performance amongst the nominees and who can gather the most support in that year. Reese has an oscar but that does not mean her work in Walk the line is better than Winslet’s oscar nominated performances. It just means Reese was nominated in a weak year and she was the favorite of the bunch. Slumdog is no Citizen kane, but based on its competition this year it has an easier shot an oscar because it is the best of the year(at least in voters mind).
If Melissa Leo wins, there will be many disappointed people in the audience. Yes, I’m sure Leo has many supporters, but like everyone has said, this feels like Kate’s year. And I’m with the others—if she doesn’t win, Meryl Streep will be the one on the podium..
…and thank you for whoever said that Melissa Leo IS Frozen River and the best thing about it. She gave a terrific performance, but that whole movie was terrible. The other performers in that film were about as effective as a rock.
And in no way does Melissa Leo resemble Adrien Brody, Marion Cotillard, Tilda Swinton, Halle Berry, etc. ALL of them had at least a major win under their belt…Brody (Cesar Award…still the only American to win an acting award), Cotillard (Globe, Bafta), Swinton (Bafta), Berry (SAG, NBR).
Frankly, Kate Winslet is winning it and she DESERVES it!
I don’t really see Kate not winning on Sunday. If Reader/Winslet backlash stuff is true then Meryl will be the beneficiary because voters may want to make sure that their votes are counted. Since everyone has been saying this is Winslet vs. Streep, a voter might feel her/his vote for Leo might not have any impact on the race. If they are turned off by Kate they will choose Meryl and vice versa.
“10. There has been a backlash against Winslet and READER in general since its nominations for several reasons:
a. DARK KNIGHT enthusiasts are attempting to shut out the film entirely so that it wins NO Oscars.”
==============================================
OK, seriously. It’s 2 days before the Oscars – can we get over this and move on?
It didn’t get nominated and I don’t know why ‘The Reader’ is getting any more grief about this than ‘Frost/Nixon’, which presumably was borderline also. For all we know, ‘The Reader’ could have been #4, ‘F/N’ #5, and ‘TDK’ #6…
I agree with the point above, if ‘TDK’ enthusiasts are powerful enough to railroad another film’s chances, it would have been powerful enough to build up its own. And it’s true, if there was that much love for Leo among actors she would have carried the SAG.
Personally, I think it’s too late for Leo to make a run through the centre (famous last words!) because, in actual fact, I’m not convinced there’s all that much support out there for Meryl Streep against Kate Winslet. Streep’s consistently said that she doesn’t want another Oscar so why would they give her one? Plus, Winslet is really due and I think she’s been pretty endearing about the whole thing fron day one.
But, PLEASE, enough about ‘TDK’ already….
I really wish Frozen River would be released on DVD in the UK by the time the Oscars are on. Alas, it won’t be, and the only chance it could have been seen here was if you managed to get a ticket at the London Film Fest before it sold out (believe me, I tried).
hobbes, Streep, always points out that she has lost more than any other actor, alongside graciously acknowledging her two wins.
The two best performances of the year by actresses were Leo in Frozen River and Winslet in Revolutionary Road. If Winslet were nominated for Revolutionary Road I would have liked to see her win, but there is no way I would be able to vote for her in the terrible movie she is nominated for.
After reading this I HAVE TO SEE FROZEN RIVER B4 SUNDAY to be completely confident in my Oscar pool. I will say this…Kate Winslet was nominated for the wrong performance. She was mediocre at best in The Reader. All she did was say “Hey Kid” to David Kross a thousand times; it was weak and forgetful. In Rev. Road she was brialliant. And Streep was on fire in Doubt.
All I’m saying is that Kate Winslet does not deserve this oscar. I don’t care how many times she’s lost. She should lose again and Streep and/or Leo should win. FINGERS CROSSED BITCHES!
“1. Melissa Leo and Penelope Cruz have the same manager, Jason Weinberg, who is well known as one of the best awards strategists in town. He steered his other client Hillary Swank to two wins.”
Then, Sasha, why do you change your mind about Penelope Cruz?
International megastar+ exuberant beauty+ funny+ baity role+ scene stealer+ Woody Allen+ Harvey Weinstein+ Latin/Spanish factor+ Afro American split vote+ Doubt split vote+ Volver snub+ Jason Weinberg is not equal to Oscar??????
The thing with Jewish Hollywood finding her character repugnant and offensive is beyond absurd, since this is not at all what the movie is about. I think that this may be true in general for ignorant Americans (who as always live in their own world) but the Jewish people are smarter, and they would see the light at the end of the tunnel.
And finally, maybe its a but cynical, but saying that she “fucking needs an Oscar” is just a nod to our beloved Academy who robbed her from her deserving award for the role of Clementine in Eternal Sunshine… Payback time!
Someone said Leo was over the top in Frozen River.
You can’t be farther from the truth. It is IMHO the most intense and internal of the five nominated performances.
It is maybe the most intense and natural of the 5 performances, but that doesn’t mean that it is also the best. There is something in Kate Winslet’s performance that shows mastercraft and true art, going beyond the role or the movie.
Jokero, if your response was to my post, I didn’t say she was the best. I was merely pointing out there is no way one could call her over the top.
I can’t believe that you said Melisa Leo is this year’s Tilda Swinton. Swinton was not unknown by any means. She worked with one of the most interesting film director (Derek Jarman) many times and she was the legend already. Were you serious when you wrote Tilda Swinton is ‘a relatively unknown Hollywood outsider’? Hollywood people see movies too.
It’s stupid to penalize Winslet for admitting that she “fucking wants an Oscar.” Everyone nominated for an Oscar “fucking wants” it (except Meryl Streep, who’s cool already); it’s just a matter of admitting it. Playing the lame “I’m happy just to be nominated card” isn’t being honest, so I respect her for saying what she really feels.
@dela I know what you meant, everybody’s got different view of it, but I meant that I watched both movies, and while I love Frozen River (definitely best for Original Screenplay) and liked Melissa Leo’s acting, I think it’s of a completely different nature than Kate’s. The movie matters too, maybe The Reader is a Holocaust and so on, but it’s a monumental movie too, it adds up so much to the performance.
But definitely Frozen River for Original Screenplay – I’m just saying cuz the Academy will OBVIOUSLY screw it up.
Alternate is In Bruges, Milk is just a biopic, deserves a nomination, but nothing more, we gotta separate the success of one movie from the technicality and specificity of each category.
They support their friends. Marsha Gay Harden and Melissa Leo just completed working on American Gun. Voting has always been political.
There is no Melissa Leo thing…even if it existed, the backlash would be tremendous. Enough already…
KATE HAS GOT TO WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If u don’t want Kate’s fans (and there are a lot of us trust me) to go ghetto on the academy, you better give her the Oscar. We shall wreak havoc and shock even TDK fans if Kate loses to someone else.
Exactly, after TIME magazine’s cover with Kate Winslet this means that it’s pretty much decided just because they saw that Kate has some advance with the votes. And it’s logical, seeing that Kristin-Scott Thomas and Sally Hawkins are not nominated. Meryl Streep was only considered because of lifetime achievement possibility. (I think bloggers should stop with this, the Academy is already doing stuff like all the time, don’t give them support over it). Otherwise Streep’s performance is pretty much ordinary, well for Streep of course. So here you go, it’s all decided, upset is gonna be Best Picture. (ending is most important, and the cheesy-Bollywood’s end credits of Slumdog is not doing the trick)
Who gives a flying fig about TIME magazine. They don’t decide the winners. And what’s this “upset is gonna be Best Picture”?. Slumdog has it in the bag already. Slumdog has it in the bag.
That’s what you think…
) With so big campaigns from Button and Milk, the confusion can send any of the movies to the Best Picture.
has anyone figured out the Colleen Camp reference yet????
“There is no Melissa Leo thing…even if it existed, the backlash would be tremendous. “
Good point, Afrika. From the moment Leo’s name were to be read, welcome to Eternal Backlash.
The only comparable villagers-with-pitchforks provocation would be if Philip Seymour Hoffmann took Heath’s Oscar — again!
Colleen Camp hosted a dinner for Adrien Brody before he won Best Actor. (In other words, legal wooing of AMPAS members.) Maybe she did it again this year for Leo.
Thanks Paul. We all feel much better now.
Ryan,
that’s all I can think about whenever I see PSH – even today – who cares if he diddled the little black boy?! He stole Ledger’s statuette!
thought we were ignoring the white elephant in the room….guess we both failed!
I don’t think there would be any significant backlash if Leo won.
Majority will view it as a Cinderella story and no one would want to be looked as a villain.
I don’t think it is going to happen, however.
A little voice in my head just said: “And the Oscar goes to…Angelina Jolie for Changeling.” Talk about backlash.
Streep has her block of votes (including East Coasters), which I think Melissa Leo is chipping away at; Winslet has her block of votes (the ingenue* lovers), which I think Anne Hathaway is stealing from. And of course Leo and Hathaway have blocks of support in their own right. If Jolie has any kind of support — does she? — it’s possible she slips in. Does anyone think that there are 1500 AMPAS members spread across the branches who would vote for her?
*Kate is still an ingenue in my book, with that face and that sensuality.
I am so tired of all these people saying that Hoffman did not derserve to win for Capote. He won so many previous awards prior to the oscars and the majority of people at the time felt he deserved it. Plus he became one of the best actors out know based on his acting talent not on his looks. If Heath did not die they were not be much talk about him being rob of the oscar. Heath was good and all but all he did was the voice of Sling Blade but as a gay dude. I felt Jake Gyenehall gave the better performance. Once Heath wins for The Dark Knight i hope all this talk about him being robbed is forgotten.
And once Kate Winslet wins, at least the next time she is nominated (she most likely will be), we won’t have to put up with the “She needs an Oscar” rant again.
you may be tired of hearing about it, but it doens’t make it untrue – just watch both performances today and see how PSH’s performance has aged – it has not held up as well as Ledger’s – Ledger, I feel created a timeless performance.
PSH won, in part, because he built an incredible body of work in relatively short time without getting any past Oscar recognition. Every group felt it was his time, and Heath was just beginning to come into his own (as far as Oscar-bait roles are concerned). Unfortunately, it wasn’t meant to be. Even if Heath were alive, he would still be SA front runner.
Ledger’s film (Brokeback Mountain) is more memorable and will continue to be and that fact has helped Ledger’s performance in that film to become memorable too. So one does wonder why he didn’t win over PSH. But it doesn’t matter now because he will win this Sunday for a much memorable performance and yes…even if he were alive, he will still, without a doubt, be the frontrunner.
I found Melissa Leo’s performance mediocre at best. And the script wasn’t impressive for me either. If she (or the screenplay) wins I won’t like it, but it is what it is. The fact that “Frozen River” has stuck around for about year now is noteworthy in and of itself – but that doesn’t make it Oscarworthy.
Nevertheless, Kate Winslet should win this – especially with her turn in “Revolutionary Road” possibly sticking in voters’ minds.
And, though I think someone else covered it in an earlier comment, when does anyone need an Oscar?
If you base in performance, it must be Streep vs. Leo. But the whole campaigning thing played the part so the leading nominee is Winslet.
MERYL STREEP all the way!
In ref to tipster’s 10c, this is the first time Kate is actually campaigning actively. In past she seemed too cool for the Hollywood crowd. Now she seems to be making an effort to be one of them and that could be endearing.
I hope she doesn’t take off her clothes in next few movies. As good as her performances are, nudity is becoming a side show in them. Before anything everyone talks about her nude scenes. Is she about to jump the shark?
This has nothing to do with Leo’s performance, but there’s no way she’s going to win. Just no way. At all. There has been absolutely no buzz surrounding her except for maybe this site and a few actors. It’ll be Winslet.
re: 9 erasmus
I would love to see Tom O’Neil’s head explode.
re: “… Everyone nominated for an Oscar “fucking wants” it (except Meryl Streep, who’s cool already)”
Actually I think Streep wants it more than anyone. I didn’t find the BAFTA speech charming at all personally.
Also with KW, after losing 5 times and going through a season with two roles being lauded (and unloved, I’ll add)… I think someone might kind of want one.
Every Jew who is supposedly, possibily “insulted” by the character of Hanna Schmitz (Kate Winslet) in The Reader is unreformably narrow-minded – and I doubt it is anything but speculation of someone to claim so.
I simply can’t believe that, that’s just like not voting for something because it is about gays or involves black people…
Idiotic.
I couldn’t reconstruct/respect/tolerate such lacking of the greater view.
Leo was okay, I think there is nothing extraordinary about her perfomance.
What make her and the whole movie Frozen River strong is the script,
and the way it is photographed.
IMO the Melissa Leo frenzy of the last days……… just a desesperate attempt to heat up the Oscar race a little bit. No chances for her. It’s between Kate and Meryl, Anne in third.
I agree with Joao…. this last-minute buzz about a Leo upset certainly keeps things interesting in these final hours, but I just don’t see it happening. I rented both Changeling and Frozen River last week, and have finally seen all twenty acting nominees. This has been an excellent year for actors, not a single nomination IMO has been wasted. And lots of good work (including three by Ralph Fiennes) didn’t make the final cut.
Having said that, Leo is terrific, but she can’t hold the proverbial candle to Winslet or her potential spoiler, Sister Mary Meryl.
How many voters (not Oscar addicts like most of us) remember Leo’s snub for 21 Grams? How many voters outside of the actors block have even seen Frozen River? How nice that Dustin Hoffman likes her. How many peole like Dustin Hoffman enough to vote for his favorite? And, I’m sorry, in a year of some great movies, River is good but not great. Yes, the small-budget, gritty, indie cache has worked well for Halle Berry, Hilary Swank and Charlize Theron but don’t forget all three of these actors won a bunch of precursor awards in seasons with apparently little competition (my apologies to Nicole Kidman and Annette Bening). Leo grabbed a few of the lesser critics awards but that’s about it; and her competition is, in a word, fierce. All of this being said, I do hope she takes the Independent Spirit award tomorrow.
Bank on it: The only surprise among the major nominations this year is that there will be no surprises.
Everyone always points out that Kate Winslet was robbed for Eternal Sunshine. I agree that she was great in that, but if you recall the awards season that year, the biggest hype was Annette Bening versus Hilary Swank. If Swank hadn’t won, Bening probably would have instead.
I think both Kate Winslet and Meryl Streep will do a better job as Ray Eddy in Frozen River …. That’s all!
FORGET STREEP……..THE RACE IS BETWEEN WINSLET AND LEO;
(………………………………………………..AND SCOTT THOMAS)!!!!!!
Leo may have big names behind her, but so did Sally Hawkins, and look where that got her. We also have to remember that everybody in the Academy votes for almost every award, including the performances, so you almost have to predict what the non-acting branches of the Academy will do. Don’t get me wrong, I loved Leo and the film, which was one of my favourites of the year and easily outclasses all the other nominees for BP. But I don’t think this is the same as the Marcia Gay Harden situation because there are so many other factors at work here, such as sentimentality for Winslet’s lack of a win and for Streep’s lack of a win in so many years, and Anne Hathaway’s transformation for her film, just to name a few. I really think it will go to Winslet, because many of those who supported her Rev Road performance will more than likely cast their votes for her Reader perf now that they only have one to choose from. They may be completely different performances, but I have a feeling that people were looking to give a vote to Kate the nominee this year rather than Kate the actress.
To tom: Forget about Winslet she is only 33 she has 4or 5 decades to win an Oscar, and it is a very huge travesty if she will win over Streep or Leo in her weakest performance ever, sheis the weakest among the 5 nominees this year!!. This is between Streep and Leo. I hope they both tie at the Oscars
This is just a lot of flim-flam being stirred up as people who write about the Oscars non-stop(including me) er, get a little bored with how predictable and locked this season is.
I know Jason Weinberg…er, he’s no Harvey Weinstein. He’s a personal manager, not a mogul.
His CAMPAIGN strategy for Leo, a New York actress, was to make her move to Hollywood early in the voting season.
Thus alienating any East Coast press who wanted to cover her, except by phone…
She’s been going to every party and every door opening in L.A. and talking to everybody and that’s indeed exactly what Marion Cotillard did last year. She moved to L.A. and stayed their till she won. Also Marcia Gay Harden did this, too. Both Cotillard and Harding, another NYC actress, (she was beyond awesome in the Bway orignal cast of “Angels in America!) were unknown in Hwd until their big awards season party-til-you-win. Er, strategy. Julie Christie did this, too, but she was “late” people said. Since Maid Marion got to L.A. and started her mojo working FIRST. Maybe even a month or two earlier. These things count.
THAT’S what Jason Weinberg does. He takes his clients, mostly women, to parties.
Harvey Weinstein, er, does a tad bit more. He CALLS members AT HOME. Or certainly had in the past. Or he has his staff call them.
I know this worked for him on behalf of Juliette Binoche (his co-star in one of old Miramax’s biggest winners “The English Patient”). There would be an argument based on “Well, Juliette really had to carry the film. Ralph Fiennes (the titular English patient) was in bed and his face bandaged for all their scenes together” which was true v. Lauren Bacall, who was seen as “just not that good” in Barbra Streisand’s “The Mirror Has Two Faces.”
And Juliette won.
ER, Kate is on the cover of TIME MAGAZINE this week!!!!!!!
A beautiful painting of her! Exquisite!In my lifetime of Oscar coverage, I have no recollection of this honor being bestowed on an actress at the height of the campaign. Beautiful painting plus in big red letters BEST ACTRESS!!!Un. Heard. Of.
And Kate recently attended a very fancy NYC gathering of Academy nabobs(and some press) and evidently made it her business to CHARM and SPEAK to EVERY SINGLE PERSON in the room! And evidently, she did. This gathering is also chronicled in the Time Piece, which is pretty close to deifying Kate the Great as our Current Movie Goddes. Great read. Great cover.
Melissa, fortunately, or unfortunately, has not had that kind of focus. She perhaps could, one day. But she’s hovering around 50…if not more…
The Rich Old White Males (who some call DIRTY OLD White Men) who dominate the rank and file, the tech guides, which are the majority of the academy are just not going to throw their votes to a woman who reminds them of their wife, or mother, as opposed to their fantasy girls, Kate, Anne and Penelope.
I think Helen Mirren was the last older woman we may see win in our lifetime.
Time is against Meryl, too. But Meryl has a lot of bait-y parts coming up, yet again. She always does. Like “Julie and Julia” where she plays Julia Child and inevitably the Oklahoma matriarch-from-hell in the film version of “August:Osage County.”
If Melissa Leo was such a threat to win, she would have won the SAG(Meryl and Kate did) or the BFCA(Kate and Anne and Meryl did) or the Golden Globes(Kate won BOTH). That puts her in fourth or fifth place.
And there’s also the fact that beyond the Actor’s Branch, I keep hearing that the other members did not get sent a DVD screener copy of “Frozen River”. Sony Pictures Classics (perhaps) favoring their OTHER filly in the race Anne Hathaway.
Obviously, the Writer’s got sent their “Frozen River” DVDs. Vis a vis Courtney Hunt’s unexpected screenplay nomination. Which knocked Sony Picture’s other female writing contender, Jenny Lumet, out of the original screenplay race.
Also “Frozen River” is at least partly if not majorly a Canadian film, like “Away From Her” was last year. Duplicating it’s Best Actress and Best Screenplay nominations, but no win.
SOME day Melissa Leo might win. IF she keeps getting parts that can keep getting nominated. She’s roughly equivalent to another NYC actress her age, Patricia Clarkson, who continues to do great work in every film she’s in.
A premature win for a 50 year old actress might just be the worst thing to happen to Melissa Leo at this point. Her asking price could sky-rocket and nobody would want to pay it. I think “Frozen River” was one of the year’s lowest grossers. This same argument could be applied to Viola Davis’ late surge. If indeed there even was one. For either of them. Neither are proven at the box-office.
A tempest in a teapot, this is.
But isn’t it wonderufl that there actually are GREAT performances in the Best Actress category for a change this year???
IN DEFENSE OF MY PREVIOUS POST (#87): I WAS CONSIDERING ONLY THE ARTISTRY OF THE PERFORMANCES (& NOT ALL OF THE POLITICAL FACTORS).
CLEARLY THE BEST ACTING OF THE YEAR AMONG FEMALE ACTORS IN A STARRING ROLE WAS WINSLET, LEO, AND SCOTT THOMAS!!!!!!
If this guy was right, things like this would happen all the time. And they don’t…not even close.
Winslet might lose, but she’ll lose to Streep, not Leo.
Stephen, I don’t see how you can classify Frozen River as “majorly Canadian”. Sure, part of it takes place in Quebec, but most of the actors (and all of the main ones–even the French guy!) were American, as was the writer/director, and it was financed in the States. It doesn’t come even close to Away from Her as a Canadian production (which is reflected in the fact that it wouldn’t have qualified for the Genie Awards up here, though would most certainly have received a slew of nominations if it had, as Away from Her did–and it won most of them too!). In fact, Juno was more Canadian than Frozen River, and it did win for Screenplay. So I think arguing Leo’s and Hunt’s chances based on the film’s “Canadianness” is really hard to buy.
Dream on Sasha. I really don’t understand this lesbian crush on Leo! bwahaha! Be contented that she won the Indie Spirit Awards mmmkay? Her Oscar nomination is the win for her and that’s that! hehehe
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