Now that Blue is the Warmest Color has taken two major awards in Cannes, let’s take a quick look at how the Cannes awards can sometimes match (or not) the Oscars. By and large, the Grand Prize, which Inside Llewyn Davis won, is probably more Oscar friendly overall than any of the other categories. But even that is like the polar opposite of Oscar. And forever may they remain separate, unless Oscar can somehow get a little taste of Cannes.
Having a small jury do the selecting of prizes is very different from needing the validation of thousands of voting members of the Academy. It’s hard to know where Blue is the Warmest Color will end up. The sex alone guarantees that Academy members (mostly older hetero males) will trip over their coffee tables rushing to throw in that screener. The sex will get them there and once they’re there maybe they will like what they see. Thus, I think, should it be selected for one country’s official entry, it’s likely to at least get nominated at the Oscars.
Meanwhile, Nebraska is the one I’d keep an eye on for a number of reasons. 1) it’s Alexander Payne’s American masterpiece. While many critics were downplaying how great it was, calling it ‘bland’ and “lesser Payne” – I think they’re wrong. Sure, it isn’t breaking new ground like Blue or some of the others but it is distinctly American, distinctly Payne and very much speaks to the times we’re living in. Bruce Dern will be a very strong acting contender heading into Cannes, especially if he’s chosen for lead. He’ll likely take on Robert Redford as the two vets heading for the big acting win. The rest of the contenders we’ll have to wait and see where they land but Oscar Isaac from Llewyn Davis, Michael B. Jordan from Fruitvale are strong Cannes contenders. Surely there will be many more names to come. Inside Llewyn Davis, All is Lost, Fruitvale join Nebraska as the films from Cannes that will compete in this year’s Oscar for Best Picture.
The other big movie to keep your eye on right now is not out of Cannes but it’s Linklater’s Before Midnight. Talk about rave reviews, Midnight is on track to earn Linklater maybe a Best Director nom, plus Best Picture. Rave reviews, two earlier films in the can, something that’s never been done before and a great female role makes me think this will be one of the strong contenders. Julie Delpy for Best Actress and the three of them, Linklater, Delpy and Hawke for Screenplay again.
As far as Blue is the Warmest Color winning both the Fipresci and Palme d’Or – how have films that won both fared in recent years:
2001–The Son’s Room — Not nominated for Oscar
2004–Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11 — Was not eligible for Oscar
2007–4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days — Was not nominated for the Oscar
2009– The White Ribbon — Nominated for Cinematography/Foreign Language Film
As far as Palme d’Or winners that have been nominated for Best Picture:
Amour
Tree of Life
The Pianist
Secrets & Lies
Pulp Fiction
The Piano
The Mission
All that Jazz
Apocalypse Now
Taxi Driver
The Conversation
MASH
But you have to go back to 1955, to find a Palme winner that also won the Oscar: Marty.
I won’t know where Blue is the Warmest Color might land until I see the film for myself but judging my the reception it received in Cannes (with a small handful of holdouts) it seemed to be the kind of film that appeals to the target demo. Ideally that would mean that there would be a strong LGBT film in the Oscar race with two strong female leads. The cynical way of looking at it would be: you could never get anyone to pay attention to a movie like that without a twenty minute explicit lesbian sex scene. And so it goes. A double edged sword, but it is what it is. We shall have to wait and see how the year plays out.
