The Carpetbagger posted two items yesterday that tied loosely together – one was reporting the news that Deep Throat, Mark Felt, had finally died. This was to be the moment we discovered Deep Throat’s identity; didn’t Woodward say that he would only reveal the source once the source was dead? But Felt decided to reveal himself some time ago. Anyway, he’s dead. Meanwhile, the Bagger reports on the plethora of Frost/Nixon covers in the trades and how Universal is pulling out the stops.
But I don’t think this campaign is going for the Big Win so much as it’s ensuring that it’s not the fifth film edged out in case Doubt, Wall-E and/or The Dark Knight wedge in. Frost/Nixon seems about as secure as you can get but you never know.¬† So if Best Picture is coming down to: Benjamin Button, Milk, Slumdog that leaves two slots for Frost/Nixon, Doubt, Wall-E (maybe), The Dark Knight (maybe), The Wrestler (possibly), Revolutionary Road (looking like a long shot at this point, but that was Atonement this time last year).
Frost/Nixon is the fourth, I believe. If all of those other films are battling it out for the fifth, and if we’re talking about actors having the biggest majority of the vote, that makes Doubt next in line. If we’re talking about a more popular film with audiences pulling votes from the other branches, like the techs for instance, The Dark Knight might turn up. If, though, ultimately we’re talking about a film EVERYONE loved with absolutely no reservations, Wall-E pushes through. You see, it could tip in any direction depending on how many number one votes a particular film gets.
My own opinion on this is that Milk, Slumdog, The Dark Knight and Wall-E are number one choices before they are number three or four choices, meaning, their fans are passionate ones. Benjamin Button could be a number 1 or 2. Doubt and Frost/Nixon could be number 3 or 4s. The Wrestler and Revolutionary Road 4 or 5s.
Next Friday, Oscar ballots are sent out to the 6,000 members of the Academy, and directly after New Year’s, the DGA and PGA will make their big announcements. Both are going to be honoring, I feel sure, Slumdog and Danny Boyle, Benjamin Button and David Fincher, Frost/Nixon and Ron Howard, Gus Van Sant and Milk. I think the PGA will honor The Dark Knight and I’m going to assume that they also will honor Christopher Nolan. If Nolan misses the DGA nod, the film will not be nominated for Best Picture. It’s all about the next three weeks.
