Karger has to put out his predictions now, before ballots have been turned in (thanks to the industrious commenters for pointing it out). He goes with:
Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director, Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Actor: Sean Penn, Milk
Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Supporting Actress: Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Animated Film: Wall-E
Foreign-Language Film: The Class
Documentary: Man On Wire
Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Costume Design: The Duchess
Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Song: “Jai Ho,” Slumdog Millionaire
Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sound: The Dark Knight
Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight
Short: Spielzugland (Toyland)
Animated Short: Presto
Documentary Short: The Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306
As I already wrote in the comments, Karger is good, overall, with predictions but he has to play it safe. His role as a predictor is simply too important to fly off in risky directions. The only thing I can see here that might be risky is Sean Penn v. Mickey Rourke. Buzz seems to be with Rourke right now. Penn won the SAG (but was expected to). Buzz for The Wrestler just gets stronger. It’s a toss up — not unlike Julie Christie versus Marion Cotillard last year. Cotillard won the BAFTA, Rourke won the BAFTA.
