Oscar’s Fuzzy Math – The Magic Number

Steve Pond lays it out once more for those of us who are having a hard time getting it (raises hand):

The math is simple: You take the number of nominations up for grabs, add one, and use the resulting number to divide the number of votes. Then you add one, or any fraction of one.

For instance, if you have 5,500 Best Picture ballots and you’re looking for 10 nominees, you divide 5,500 by 11, giving you a magic number of 500. Now, it’s theoretically possible that 11 different films could each receive 500 votes – but if you add one (or any fraction, if that magic number isn’t a whole number), you’ll get the number that will automatically put you in the top 10, and thus guarantee you a nomination.

He takes it a step further and makes up potential piles:

Going back to our hypothetical 5,500-vote Best Picture vote, let’s say that we’ve assembled all the ballots into stacks, and the results look like this:

“Up in the Air” – 575 votes
‚ÄúAvatar‚Äù — 550
‚ÄúThe Hurt Locker‚Äù — 475
‚ÄúPrecious‚Äù — 475
‚ÄúUp‚Äù — 450
‚ÄúInglourious Basterds‚Äù — 425
‚ÄúInvictus‚Äù — 375
‚ÄúNine‚Äù — 350
‚ÄúAn Education‚Äù — 325
‚ÄúA Serious Man‚Äù — 325
‚ÄúThe Last Station‚Äù — 300
‚ÄúThe Messenger‚Äù — 250
‚ÄúDistrict 9‚Äù — 200
‚ÄúStar Trek‚Äù — 175
‚ÄúThis Is It‚Äù — 150
‚ÄúThe Lovely Bones‚Äù — 100

Since the magic number is 501, that means that “Up in the Air” and “Avatar” are first-round nominees.

The stacks containing those ballots are taken off the table; those 1,025 voters have cast their ballots, and their first choices have been nominated.

After this point, they must add and divide and find a new magic number! So then, he says, you look to the pile that has the lowest number of votes (he says, for example, The Lovely Bones with 100). They take those number 2 choices and then divide them up that way.

So let’s say that out of those 100 “Lovely Bones” votes, 25 are redistributed to “The Hurt Locker,” 20 to “An Education,” 15 to “Inglourious Basterds,” and 10 each to “The Last Station,” “District 9,” “Up” and “Precious.”

Adding those new votes to the original stacks, we’ve now got this ranking:

“The Hurt Locker” – 500
“Precious” – 485
‚ÄúUp‚Äù — 460
‚ÄúInglourious Basterds‚Äù — 440
‚ÄúInvictus‚Äù — 375
‚ÄúNine‚Äù — 350
‚ÄúAn Education‚Äù — 345
‚ÄúA Serious Man‚Äù — 325
‚ÄúThe Last Station‚Äù — 310
‚ÄúThe Messenger‚Äù — 250
‚ÄúDistrict 9‚Äù — 210
‚ÄúStar Trek‚Äù — 175
‚ÄúThis Is It‚Äù — 150

Since the new magic number is 498, “The Hurt Locker” is our third nominee, and its 500 votes come off the table.

Okay, so now it is starting to become clearer. But then he adds the surplus rule. And that is where my eyes glaze over. I picture this guy dolling out ballots like he’s dividing Halloween candy. Okay, Tommy didn’t get enough Snickers, let’s toss a few his way, take away from Sally’s pile. Just kidding. Head on over to Steve’s column to read the good, the bad, and the ugly of the Oscar’s math.