Update: turns out that Mr. Wells did not base his prediction on the trailer, as described below (and than god for that, right?) but a reaction from a “trusted research screening informant.”
We alll get loopy on the subject of Oscar potential. ¬†Trust me, I know this to be true. ¬†I am ashamed at the amount of time I’ve spent watching Oscar and watching those who watch, drive and turn out Oscars. ¬†But I always think hard when people shoot their wad way early. ¬†I watch because it’s going to go a few different ways.
The first is what the person doing the shooting hopes for, that their own prediction will either come true, or that it will be ground zero for the first wave of buzz. ¬†This I call the God Complex of Oscar blogging. ¬†Not a pretty picture, but occasionally on target. ¬†It could also kill the chances of the potential contender by putting expectations so high they almost always fall short, and you get the old “I shaved my legs for this?” response. ¬†Finally, the third thing is that they have no impact whatsoever but when the prediction turns out to be true the blogger gets supreme bragging rights. ¬†Yes, this is the greasy little game we all play.
At any rate, here is Jeff Wells on Anne Hathaway based on the trailer for Love and Other Drugs:
Prediction:¬†Anne Hathaway is a guaranteed lock for a Best Actress nomination. Honestly? I’m 60% convinced she’s going to win.
I thought he was kidding until I drilled down into the comments and he says, “My nose knows. I can smell it. The film may be this or that, but Hathaway is on it. You’re all a bunch of haters for hate’s sake.”
The hate he speaks of is usually the blowback from the slightly premature adulation.  Meanwhile, Vulture takes the opposite position:
So despite the early murmurs that it might be a contender, the trailer for Love and Other Drugsmakes perfectly clear that it is not any kind of Oscar movie ‚Äî but it still looks pretty good! Today‚Äôssecond trailer for a romantic comedy that seems like it might actually be intended for adults stars Jake Gyllenhaal as a smooth Viagra drug rep who meets his match in the straight-talking Anne Hathaway, the kind of woman willing to show up at a guy’s apartment naked (and who, though the trailer doesn‚Äôt belabor it, has some health problems). The two talk, banter, laugh, and kiss in a way that suggests they might actually like each other ‚Äî crazy stuff! ‚Äî before heading into slightly more serious territory. There may be people so burned by the atrocities of past rom-coms that they no longer feel anything when Jake Gyllenhaal chases down and boards a Greyhound bus to win back his one true love, but, well, those people have cold, cold hearts and, needless to say, are not us.
Trailers can sometimes be misleading. ¬†We can always drag out The Departed, maybe even Slumdog Millionaire, or No Country for Old Men – I don’t think anyone looked at those trailers and thought: Oscar Best Picture WINNER. ¬†Some did, but most didn’t.
However, I tend to lean more on Vulture’s side of things only because real buzz, accurate buzz, can only be gotten from people actually seeing the thing – not a publicist’s word, not a blogger’s hyped expectations. ¬†Take note, Oscar Watchers.
For old time’s sake, let’s take a trip down memory lane. ¬†Any excuse to show the brilliance one more time.
And of course, the masterpiece:
Okay, so maybe these are bad examples because they are such brilliant films with trailers that match their brilliance. It’s hard to remember first impressions. So maybe we should focus instead on actresses. ¬†Other than Sandra Bullock, it was fairly certain early on that these were Oscar-calibre performances.
