Movieline’s Stu Van Airsdale has got his finger on the pulse of the race, or at least of our collective perceptions of the race. You know, Academy members simply fill the house, watch the screeners, vote for what they like best. It couldn’t be more simple and yet, and yet…we know that perceptions, like them or not, play a part. We know that popularity plays a part. We know that prejudices (dislike for directors who are “too good” to win) exist. We know that votes can sometimes be swayed. We know that publicity, for the most part, helps.
Stu starts us off with Best Picture:
The Leading 10:
1. The Descendants
2. War Horse
3. The Artist
4. The Help
5. Midnight in Paris
6. Moneyball
7. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
8. Hugo
9. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
10. J. Edgar
It’s interesting to me that Hugo is on the list at all, let alone above Dragon Tattoo. He is smartly not giving up on J. Edgar. With positive reviews from Kenneth Turan at the LA Times and Manohla Dargis at the NY Times, etc. J. Edgar is not quite out of the race. Interestingly, it was also panned by the Ann Hornaday at the Washington Post, Stephanie Zacharek at Movieline, etc. Most are writing it off. I’m not quite prepared to yet either. There are still going to be supporters of J. Edgar to get it through the first round at least (where it needs only 50 or 60 number 1 votes). It’s the second round where divisive films will struggle. Love it/hate it ain’t gonna fly — you’re looking for films that are going to be the surplus films’ second choice – the Artist’s second choice, The Help’s second choice, etc.
He then moves on to Director:
The Leading 5:
1. Alexander Payne, The Descendants
2. Steven Spielberg, War Horse
3. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
4. David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
5. Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Outsiders: Martin Scorsese, Hugo; Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; George Clooney, The Ides of March; Bennett Miller, Moneyball; Tomas Alfredson, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar
I think he’s mostly right here. But there are variables. He’s listed them, mostly. I’d add Steve McQueen for Shame who, I think, actually has a really good chance to get a lone director nod, along with Terrence Malick for Tree of Life. In the DGA of old they would have had the balls to nominate directors who might not have corresponding Picture nominations – because Oscars old school really did lead with the director. I’m not so sure it does anymore. But we’ll have to see how it pans out over the next few years. If I were a voting member of the DGA I would be ashamed of myself if I didn’t put Shame on my list. But that’s just me. They’re working directors. I am just an Oscar blogger.
You have to figure all of those listen above could be frontrunners, except perhaps Woody Allen. They most sit in the if/then scenarios — Alexander Payne is way, way overdue. He is the kind of director who might win if there is a split between Picture and Director. But the secret weapon here, and I know because I met him yesterday, is the brilliant, intelligent force to be reckoned with, Michel Hazanavicius. When Academy members get a load of him he will be hard to resist. The dude knows everything about American film. God love the French. He references Hitchcock, Welles, Scorsese — his favorite director is Billy Wilder (okay, not American but made some of the best American films ever made). In fact, Hazanavicius could easily sit face to face with Martin Scorsese, Woody Allen and Steve Spielberg and yarn on and on about the greatest films ever made. Please someone make that conversation happen.
Right now, I’m counting on a win for The Artist and Hazanavicius for Director. Unless something comes along to change that.
The Artist and Hugo are partners in more ways than just the general knowledge of cinema by their adept directors.Both are about the movies. And, as Bill Desowitz pointed yesterday, they are polar opposites. Hugo is about French cinema made by Americans and The Artist is made by French people about American film. Another reporter suggested that one is a symphony and one is a lecture. But to me they’re both symphonies. It’s a marvelous Oscar year to have these two films alone in the race, let alone all of the other great ones I’ve seen — films I can’t wait for everyone else to see.
