Supporting Actress – Kristen Stewart and the Possibilities

A funny thing happened in this year’s Oscar race for Supporting Actress. Somehow, some way, the critics did not forget about Clouds of Sils Maria and Kristen Stewart’s historic Cesar win. Stewart began winning early critics awards without any campaigning whatsoever. She did a little early on when the film first opened in America in April but as yet there hasn’t been any campaign for an Oscar nomination. The studio did what studios do when buzz seems to fade – they just hope for the best and move on. We in the Oscar punditry world felt that Stewart’s nomination was a long shot. The film premiered a year ago at Cannes, and her Cesar victory was in February.  Stewart’s sudden resurgence among critics has altered the Best Supporting Actress race but her chances are thought by many to remain slime, all the same. Why is that?

Most of the time, the supporting categories are tied either to a strong and well liked Best Picture contender, or they’re tied to a hot up and comer. Sometimes they’re tied to a strong leading performance, even if the film itself isn’t believed to be  going anywhere — like Denzel Washington and Ethan Hawke in Training Day.

The supporting actress race has also been shaken up in recent days by the appearance of Helen Mirren in Trumbo, a film no one really been taking seriously because of its poor reviews but, it turns out, it’s popular among actors and with the HFPA. Will that translate over to the Oscar race? Probably.

Tomorrow, the BFCA will announce their nominees for Critics Choice . If Kristen Stewart can get in anywhere it should be with that group who are more “plugged in” to the critics announcing than the industry voters are. They will name six contenders.

Jennifer Jason Leigh is also in the mix now for The Hateful Eight. She’s been long presumed to have a good chance to get in but now that the film has actually been seen it is looking more and more likely. Heck, she could even win the thing, what with the popularity of Anomalisa increasing her visibility.  So, in addition to maybe Vikander and Mara in supporting, we now have Helen Mirren and Jennifer Jason Leigh. That leaves one spot open and that spot is probably going to Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs.

If we wonder how Supporting Actress would look if Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara are both put in supporting, it might be like this:

1. Rooney Mara, Carol
2. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
3. Jennifer Jason Leigh, Hateful Eight
4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo, or Jane Fonda for Youth, or Kristen Stewart for Clouds of Sils Maria.

I also think there is a good chance that Alicia Vikander, if not Rooney Mara, could get into lead for the Danish Girl and get in for supporting for Ex Machina — thus becoming a double nominee the same month she takes the cover of Vogue, officially pronoucing her the new “it” girl.  I don’t think the Weinstein Co. want to risk having Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara split support in Best Actress, so perhaps voters will be urged to put Mara  into the supporting category. (In the end, no matter what category a distributor or performer prefers, it’s the Oscar voters themselves who will decide.)

So then it might go:

1. Rooney Mara, Carol
2. Jennifer Jason Leigh, Hateful Eight
3. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
4. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
5. Jane Fonda in Youth, or Kristen Stewart in Clouds of Sils Maria, or Alicia Vikander in Ex Machina

Rooney Mara ends up in lead, supporting could look like:

1. Jennifer Jason Leigh, Hateful Eight
2. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
3. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
4. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
5. Kristen Stewart for Clouds of Sils Maria, or Jane Fonda for Youth

Tally of honors accumulated so far:

Kristen Stewart – Clouds of Sils Maria
New York Film Critics Circle Award
Boston Society of Film Critics
Cesar Award
Boston Online Film Critics

Alicia Vikander – Danish Girl
Los Angeles Film Critics
Supporting, Screen Actors Guild, Golden Globes
Lead, Golden Globes

Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina
Washington Film Critics
Supporting, Golden Globe

Helen Mirren – Trumbo
Screen Actors Guild nom
Golden Globe nom

Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
Screen Actors Guild nom
Golden Globe nom

Stewart is coming into the race with a lot more hardware, at least so far, than any other contender in this category. That she didn’t get SAG or Golden Globe means that she probably can’t get an Oscar nod without a major push. Will IFC be there for her? But either way, it’s been a great thing to see the critics revive awareness of her performance the way they have and to bring attention to Clouds of Sils Maria, which had once seemed to be released into oblivion.