Predictions Friday: The Fools Who Dream

It’s funny how the Oscar race goes. It really is a bit like a traveling tempest. The bluster whips things up into a frenzy. Predictions are made. The outcome is not certain — nor is the assessment of the damage done. When all is said and done, the race usually doesn’t end on the same note as the one it began with. Rather, it feels like a town putting itself back together after a hurricane. The sun comes out. The shops open. Things return to normal and a Best Picture winner emerges that had been there all along. Such is the new normal of the Oscar race since it transformed from a way for the public to connect to Hollywood’s biggest night to a much smaller representation of Hollywood’s highest and firmly held ideals. In other words, the Oscars do not want to answer, necessarily, to the pulses and changes of Hollywood itself. Rather, the Academy has the luxury of holding true to the films that still live up to their definition of what makes a Best Picture.

That said, we now have a seed of what to expect — though of course, not really. There are many more films to see, many more ways the race can change, and in fact, none of us have seen everything even here in Telluride just yet. This is the first day, after all. But a frontrunner, of sorts, has emerged and that has to be La La Land. Whether it will remain the frontrunner after this weekend or not is the question. And as we all know, it’s a blessing and a curse to be called the frontrunner. What makes La La Land such a strong film for Best Picture is that it delivers the unexpected. It is both an homage to what seems like a cliche to say, the magic of cinema, but here there really is no other way to put it: Damien Chazelle proves in one film why cinema matters. This is why cinema endures. Not just great storytelling, which exists in many other places, but this is a film married to the big screen and til death do they part. But it will also likely stand apart from every other movie that plays here or anywhere else this year.

La La Land and Loving are the two films I see as battling it out for Best Picture if the race were held today. The third strongest contender so far this year is Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester by the Sea. Rounding out the nominees, if the Oscar race was crossing the finish line right now, would be Hell or High Water, Sully, Arrival, perhaps Nocturnal Animals, and Midnight. A Bigger Splash might also get in if there were no more movies left to be seen.

But as we know, there are plenty more Best Picture contenders yet to arrive — and there is still the question of The Birth of a Nation, where it will land when all is said and done. There are also Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, Martin Scorsese’s Silence, Mira Nair’s Queen of Katwe, and, of course, Denzel Washington’s Fences. It’s too early to call the race yet with these films still waiting to drop, but we do have the reliable Telluride rule which states that Best Picture winners most likely come from Telluride or before. The Departed, ten years ago, was the last film to win that came out later, and that’s when we still had only five Best Picture nominees. The main reason for this is that, within the condensed time frame of a shorter Oscar season, movies that leave the gate late have a hard time gathering enough broad support to win. That’s the going theory anyway, potentially to be broken this year or at some point in the future.

There are several performances to take note of here at Telluride, like Rooney Mara in Una and Bryan Cranston in Wakefield (along with Jennifer Garner). Una is based on a play called Blackbird, which earned Michelle Williams a Tony nomination.

There is Miles Teller, also very much in consideration in Bleed for This as the Best Actor race gets more and more crowded. Richard Gere stars in Norman: The Moderate Rise and Fall of a New York Fixer.

But it’s late and I have to post this now before the clock rounds midnight.

The takeaway today was this: La La Land is a force to be reckoned with and no amount of hype can derail it, I don’t think. It delivers in that way very few films do. My gut tells me that the three strongest right now are La La Land, Loving, and Manchester by the Sea. Which could break down like this:

La La Land
Picture
Director
Screenplay
Actress – Emma Stone in a knock-out charming scene-stealing career-making performance.
Actor
Costumes
Score
Production Design
Cinematography

Loving
Picture
Director
Screenplay
Actress
Actor
Cinematography
Production Design (maybe)

Manchester by the Sea
Picture
Director
Screenplay
Actor – Casey Affleck in a truly unforgettable, haunting, once-in-a-lifetime performance.
Supporting Actor – Lucas Hedges – a star-making role.
Supporting Actress – Michelle Williams has a small but pivotal role.

I have not yet seen Sully (that’s next on the docket, tomorrow AM). Hopefully more make adjustments can be made to this piece after I see the rest of the films.

Best Picture
La La Land
Loving
Manchester by the Sea
Silence
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
20th Century Women
Arrival
Sully
Lion
Hidden Figures

Best Actor
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Joe Lehy, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Tom Hanks, Sully
Denzel Washington, Fences
Michael Keaton, The Founder
Alt. Miles Teller, Bleed for This; Dev Patel, Lion

Best Actress
Best Actress is a race that, at least for now, seems to be jammed full of contenders. Even with these five listed here, that doesn’t begin to cover the other potential nominees, which will make it an extremely competitive year. That doesn’t happen very often.

Viola Davis, Fences
Emma Stone, La La Land
Ruth Negga, Loving
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Amy Adams, Arrival
Alt. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane; Emily Blunt, Girl on the Train; Annette Bening, 20th Century Women; Rachel Weisz, Denial

Original Screenplay
La La Land, Damien Chazelle
Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan
Loving, Jeff Nichols
Hell or High Water, Taylor Sheridan
Bleed for This, Ben Younger

Adapted Screenplay
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, Jean-Christophe Castelli
Silence, Jay Cocks
August Wilson, Fences
Indignation, James Schamus
Sully, Todd Komarnicki

Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Jeff Nichols, Loving
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Alt. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

I will try to get my reviews of La La Land and Manchester up by tomorrow AM as well. We’re exhausted and it’s only day one.