This Monday night will be the first of the many awards shows to come. I love that line in Annie Hall where he says, “All you do is give out awards here. Best Fascist Dictator, Adolf Hitler.” Sounds like our election. Anyway, as I see it, the Gothams will direct one or the other into the winner’s circle and I do not know, at this point, which one it will be.
Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea both have:
Picture
Screenplay
Manchester has Actor with Casey Affleck, which seems to give Manchester the edge. But Moonlight is a force to be reckoned with, no question about it. This is a tough choice and I’m not sure it’s an easy call. I would ordinarily say that Manchester has this thing sewn up but with things being the way they are, the election being the way it is, I just don’t know now.
Best Actor should go easily to Casey Affleck. His only real competition, to my mind, is the underrated Joel Edgerton who continually surprises with each new incarnation. Still, I think Affleck has it in the bag.
Best Actress will be a tough call. A really really really tough call. I would think that’s down to Annette Bening vs. Natalie Portman but Ruth Negga is in the mix there, along with Isabelle Huppert and Kate Beckinsale.
They haven’t been giving out Best Actress for very long and in that time they’ve gone with, shall we say, obtuse choices. This is the kind of comment that would get many haughty tweets if I tweeted it out – something along the order of “oh, if it doesn’t suck up to the Oscars it’s not worthy?!?!!” Brie Larson won for Short Term 12 but did not win for Room because Bel Polowy won for Diary of a Teenage Girl.
But there isn’t a Brie Larson or a Bel Polowy, particularly, but I would not be surprised to see Ruth Negga take it for Loving, TBH. Or Huppert. Or Beckinsale! Seriously, anyone can win this. Their history suggests that they are not so inclined to go for the one who might come close to winning the Oscar. They did make one exception with Julianne Moore for Still Alice. So I suppose it’s possible they might go with Bening or Portman. Either way, there isn’t a long enough history of these awards to know whether they have any impact whatsoever on the Oscars.
The Gothams will be held Monday night. We’ll be here with bells on.
