The Oscar voters have until 5 to lock down their votes. I expect they will waste no time filling them out because they’ve been sitting on the same movies for months now. Maybe some watched the shorts – actually watched all of them. Maybe they watched the International Features, watched all of them. Maybe they watched the Documentaries. That could mean the categories are slightly more open than they otherwise would be. One of my theories is that the new voters who were ushered in to help youthify and diversify the membership take their voting more seriously than the old timers do and really do watch everything and vote on what they think actually deserves it, as opposed to voting for what they like best.
Maybe that’s right, maybe it isn’t. People are funny in how they decide what’s best, how they form a consensus vote. I have always found it kind of fascinating that polls work the way they do because they can measure what people mostly think by the millions if you measure them by the hundreds. We all basically agree on things a lot more than we don’t, despite everything.
Also, knowing what is the “best” is a tricky proposition. If you value your own unique taste you might not go with the flow. But if you don’t go with the flow, it’s not likely your picks will be chosen as the winners. Sometimes they are.
I personally plan to make sure I watch all of the Oscar shorts before locking down a final vote. But let’s go through the categories to see which SEEM open and which don’t.
Best Picture – does not seem open to me for two main reason. Yes, Nomadland has a slight backlash happening but I think that will be overridden by the desire to make history, which is a bigger motivator than personal taste. The other reason is whether or not the industry is ready to give their top prize to Netflix. Were Chicago 7 from one of the “five families” I would see it as slightly more likely. On the other hand, actors now know Netflix is their last hope if they don’t want to wear superhero costumes and act in front of green screen for the rest of their career. I give it 75% Nomadland, 20% Chicago 7, 5% something else.
Best Actor — does not seem open to me but there are people who think Anthony Hopkins can pull in a surprise win on Oscar night. I think Chadwick Boseman has it in the bag – following in the tradition of Peter Finch (Network) and Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight). True, Hopkins just won the BAFTA and Ma Rainey does not have a Best Picture nomination but the voters at BAFTA are not the voters at the Academy, which has about 3,000 more members. 90% Boseman, 10% Hopkins.
Best Actress — complete wild card in every way. This is a truly wide open category. There are good arguments for and against each winner. Viola Davis seems to have a lot of support heading in, having just won the SAG and has higher veteran status than the others in the race. Downside: no Best Picture nomination and she won recently, in supporting but still voters might not feel a sense of urgency there. More likely, if they want to make history in the category they might support Andra Day for being the second Black actress to be nominated for playing Billie Holiday. Then there is Carey Mulligan, who has the distinction of being in a strong Best Picture contender, like McDormand does. I think there could be some vote splitting going on between McDormand and Davis (veterans), McDormand and Mulligan (Best Picture contenders), Davis and Day (making history). Who prevails out of that, I have no idea. I personally see it like this: Day 30%, Davis 25%, Mulligan 25%, McDormand 15%, Kirby 5%. But I could be way off there.
Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Director – locked.
Original Screenplay – probably Promising Young Woman. If there is wiggle room there it might go to Judas and the Black Messiah or Minari, which would be a surprise. 80% Promising Young Woman, 10% Judas, Minari
Adapted Screenplay – Nomadland except for the stats, because it will likely win Best Picture and if it does it will likely win Screenplay. The Father won the BAFTA and because of that, and because neither were up for WGA, people believe that it will win the Oscar. The other problem for Nomadland is that it is extremely rare for a sole author and sole director to win both categories. Usually there is a co-writer. I can’t even think of one recently who won both. So that is a problem too for Chicago 7 in winning both Picture and Screenplay. This stat makes me want to predict The Father to win here and not Nomadland. So now I see it like: 50% Nomadland 50% The Father. It will just depend on how blinding their love is for Nomadland and how eager they are to make history.
Editing – feels open but does seem to be down to Sound of Metal vs. The Trial of the Chicago 7. I tip my own prediction to the latter, as that might be its only win of the night. Zhao would be the first sole editor and director to win both without a co-editor. Sound of Metal did not win the Eddie and while that doesn’t always matter, Sound could certainly win at the Oscars. It’s a 50/50 on that.
Costumes and Makeup seem to be Ma Rainey’s to lose. But a part of me thinks Mank could rally there. Not enough to shift my prediction.
Cinematography – is open. Mank is definitely a movie the cinematographers rightly chose, but will the actor dominated Academy go that way? Sometimes they do (Roma), sometimes they don’t (Deakins like every time). It’s a toss up but I will predict Mank because — you gotta be kidding me.
Visual Effects is open. The consensus says Tenet.
Sound – Sound of Metal, closed.
Animated Feature – Soul
International Feature – Another Round
Score – Soul
Production Design – Mank
Song – open – consensus says Speak Now from One Night in Miami … but could be Husavik from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga. Or any of them, frankly.
Documentary Feature – open – though it seems to be tipping the direction of My Octopus Teacher. This is an unpredictable category, though more so back when members were mandated to see all five. Now they don’t have to. This is true of the shorts as well. Crip Camp is an Obama production and could win for that reason, along with its message overall. The Truffle Hunters on pure charm alone.
The shorts I’ll have to do in a separate piece. But at the moment, as every year, they are mostly open.
Now it’s your turn. Dear Oscar, Hear My Plea! What films or performances do you most want to see win?
