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Oscars 2023: Best Actor Suddenly Got Competitive

Sasha Stone by Sasha Stone
December 19, 2022
in 2023 Oscar Predictions, Best Actor, featured
0

When I saw this video by Tom Cruise I wanted to write a love letter. No, not THAT kind of love letter. One of appreciation and admiration that he’s still a movie star. He hasn’t branded himself politically, and he doesn’t spend much time whining. People who have worked for him always note his specific attention to kindness. He’ll send flowers to people who are writing press notes. The internet wants his identity to be wrapped up in Scientology but really, the Tom Cruise I know only exists on the big screen. He knows how to entertain and he gives us something magical.

This one video is better than almost every movie made this year:

Okay, I’m partly kidding. But I do think somewhere along the way we lost the whole meaning of what movies are supposed to be. Not films, not cinema but MOVIES. Tom Cruise remembers. He’s the last movie star. Or certainly one of them. I started this year by writing that all I wanted for Christmas was Tom Cruise and Austin Butler in the Oscar race. Not just because they made two of the most profitable films of the year, but because we need that masculine, movie star energy. Yes, go ahead and screenshot that sentence and toss it into the churn for the Twitter bullies. It is something that is missing in film of late. It seems the industry’s new “red scare” falls on the alpha male. They can only invest in characters they deem marginalized, aka not the majority.

But how does an industry survive if all they want to do is reach the smaller niche audiences, as opposed to the big giant sea of ticket buyers who want to come back to the movies, if you give them movie stars and MOVIE movies like Top Gun Maverick.

To this end, I think it seems fairly plausible that the fine Mr. Cruise is in the hunt for Best Actor. Does that mean he’ll win? No. But if you want to spike the punch, nominate him in the category. Bring that man back to the Dolby. If you REALLY want to liven things up, nominate Top Gun: Maverick for not just stunt ensemble at SAG (it will win) but actual ensemble. You want to see a standing ovation? There you go.

I’m saying much of this tongue-in-cheek. I know that the screeching (my god, the screeching) will start if the movie ever wins or is nominated for anything beyond the National Board of Review. But I think it’s worth ruminating on how things got so so bad in Hollywood — how movies got so big and small at the same time and why it all feels like it’s collapsing. I will be writing a different piece about that particular subject, but right now let’s talk Best Actor.

This is a hell of a race already. All three of the potential winners are magnificent. Colin Farrell is heartbreaking in The Banshees of Inisherin. He plays someone who is “nice” but “dull.” His only reliable best friend is his little donkey Jenny. He spends his time with his sister, his animals and his friend (Brendan Gleeson). His friend decides he’s too “dull” to spend time with anymore. He wants to focus his remaining time on earth writing music so he can leave something lasting behind, and he can’t stand the noises in his head from the everyday chatter. They break up. On a small, isolated island in Ireland losing your one friend, especially when you have nothing else, is rough business.

It’s such a beautiful script, so deep and profound, there are a lot of ways into the story. But take just one: you can teach nice people to hate if you take away friendship and access to culture. Brendan Gleeson plays his music with his musician friends, spends his time in his own head trying to become someone of significance. But in abandoning his “dull” friend, he has now set in motion chaos, catastrophe, war. You see, we all need access to genius, to beauty, to art. Only a great actor could take us through that journey like Farrell does. There is not a second in that movie where you think: I’m watching Colin Farrell.

Farrell has extra strength in this category because of love for the film overall. And, as we know from the past, that can drive a Best Actor win more than just about anything else.

Austin Butler was not the actor that some expected could ever play Elvis. But he gives the kind of performance that is undeniable. It isn’t just the voice, the movies, the charisma, and the sex appeal. He nails all of that. But it’s those moments of fear and vulnerability that drive his performance. The best scene in the movie is when Elvis seems to calls out his manager with the song “Suspicious Minds.” That is the moment when the actor completely disappears and we see something else take hold.

Butler’s strength will depend on how well the movie Elvis does. Will Baz Luhrmann get in for Best Director? Will it lead the nominations? People have to like it and him better than they do Banshees and Farrell. The popularity of the movie itself will likely come into play.

Where the movie itself won’t come into play is The Whale. But Brendan Fraser’s performance is exceptional, even with all of the prosthetics and the fat suit. He goes for it in a way few actors ever do. It stays with you in ways you can’t shake. His character is struggling with just staying alive, but also deep self-loathing, despair, and hopelessness. The only thing keeping him alive is his love for his daughter. And even that seems tenuous. Fraser took the early lead, and could still win. He will need to win big at either Globes or SAG to drive an Oscar win.

The other names floating around include Bill Nighy for Living, Gabriel LaBelle for The Fabelmans, Paul Mescal for Aftersun, Jeremy Pope for The Inspection, Hugh Jackman for The Son, and Will Smith for Emancipation.

All of these actors have a really good shot at winning, but there is no doubt that the MVP of this year is Tom Cruise — ageless, brave, full of optimism, and doing what movie stars were born to do: make us all feel a tiny bit better about our own lives. They are gods on the screen and we need them. We can’t do without the alpha male hero. It’s a mistake to pretend that we can.

Here is how I would rank them at the moment:

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Bill Nighy, Living
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

 

Tags: Colin FarrellTom Cruise
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