The dirty little secret about the Oscar game is that there is no such thing as a “frontrunner.” Oh, we pretend there is. We imagine it. We predict it. We manifest it. But it actually doesn’t exist. It’s never been quite as bad as it right now, mainly because there used to actually be an economy attached to the Oscars. They didin’t exist to right the wrongs of society. They weren’t ways to kickstart a career of an unknown director. And they certainly weren’t magic mirrors for a niche audience who still cares about them. There was power to them because big money was involved.
Movies weren’t rewarded unless they were successful. For most of the decades the Oscars existed, their Best Picture contenders hit the top of the box office, if not number one.
Starting in 1943, the films that were both number one at the box office and won Best Picture were:
1943 — Going My Way
1954 — The Greatest Show on Earth
1957 — The Bridge on the River Kwai
1959 — Ben-Hur
1965 — The Sound of Music
1972 — The Godfather
1976 — Rocky
After this period, there was a shift where movies were released for the Oscar race then made their money the following year. That meant rather than the Oscars responding to what the people liked, the Oscars were used to get the people to come out and see the movies. You have to figure that the pressures of, perhaps, cable television or videotapes being rented at home shifted things somewhat.
Or maybe the rise of the blockbuster emptied out the top spot at the box office for the kinds of films that won Best Picture. If we mark that moment by Jaws in 1975, it more or less matches.
That means that movies that did ultimately come to dominate the box office AND won Best Picture became a rarer thing. There were exceptions, like The Silence of the Lambs (#4), Forrest Gump (#2), Gladiator (#3).
Last year’s winner, Everything Everywhere All at Once, never got close to number one at the box office, but its Oscar wins didn’t drive its profits either. It made its money on word of mouth: its excitement was generated outside the Oscar bubble and then was rewarded for that. I call that Oscar old school.
Box office does suddenly matter again after we watched the theaters emptied out and it caused widespread panic throughout the industry. The two films this year that will get the most bounce from box office are Barbenheimer.
Both Barbie and Oppenheimer exceeded expectations and broke records in different ways. Barbie is credited with being the first film co-written and directed by a female to make one billion worldwide. At number 11 on the all-time charts, Barbie has surpassed The Avengers. How much longer until it becomes one of the top ten highest grossing films of all time?
That is an achievement by any measure. It’s worth noting that only one film on the above list has actually won Best Picture and that was Titanic, 26 years ago. But Barbie has one advantage: it was directed by a woman, which makes it practically a miracle.
That alone makes Barbie a “frontrunner.” But is it THE frontrunner? And if not, what is?
Because there is no actual frontrunner until we start to see films winning awards, we can really only talk about what we presume are the frontrunners in our tight circle of punditry and Film Twitter. Within these ranks, there are many different points of view on the race and all are worth consideration. There is no “final word” on it, no matter how people brag about getting this or that right this or that year. We’ve all been there, pal. Nobody knows anything.
You have to be able to suss out where people are ADVOCATING for the people they WANT to be nominated, either because they love the movie (guilty) or they like the people involved (also guilty). But really, this is all subjective. We can only predict what we imagine might be happening, not what is actually happening.
With that caveat, let’s see where we are.
What usually drives Best Picture winner?
- Large cast of actors or an ensemble. The Academy is ruled by actors. They’re less likely to award films like Gravity, with two actors in it, than 12 Years a Slave, with lots of actors.
- Urgency to vote FOR something. Usually there is another reason voters elect to push a film to the top of their ballots. That can include them loving the idea of the movie, what it stands for, what it says rather than just the film itself. Or if they feel they are doing good with their vote. Do they push a movie out of good intentions?
- Ye Aulde standing ovation at the SAG awards. What kind of movie is impressive enough to inspire voters to leap to their feet? And why? Are they teary and inspired?
- The “woke” factor. You can pretend all you want that this doesn’t exist, but it is simply the reality of Hollywood right now. That means social justice is in play some how, some way. This can be absolute for many voters (“I will ONLY vote for a woman or a person of color”) or it can be slightly more abstract. This is where fake controversies come into play, Twitter shitstorms and the like. Contenders can be knocked out if someone smears the movie as “problematic.”
- Acting frontrunners are in the film:
2022: Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, Jamie Lee Curtis — Everything Everywhere
2021: CODA — Troy Kotsur
2020: Nomadland — Frances McDormand
2019: Parasite (no acting noms but won SAG ensemble)
2018: Green Book — Mahershala Ali
2017: The Shape of Water (no acting winners)
2016: Moonlight — Mahershala Ali
2015: Spotlight (no acting winners)
2014: Birdman (no acting winners)
2013: 12 Years a Slave — Lupita Nyong’o
2012: Argo (no acting winners)
2011: The Artist — Jean DuJardin
2010: The King’s Speech — Colin Firth
2009: The Hurt Locker — (no acting winners)
Usually you get to Best Picture by following the actors who are either headed for nominations or wins — all of the so-called frontrunners also have acting frontruners.
Best Picture — Frontrunners:
Oppenheimer — Cillian Murphy, Robert Downey Jr.
Barbie — Ryan Gosling, Margot Robbie
Poor Things — Emma Stone, Mark Ruffalo
Killers of the Flower Moon — Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro, Lily Gladstone
The Holdovers — Paul Giamatti, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dominic Sessa
Challengers:
Maestro — Bradley Cooper, Carey Mulligan
American Fiction — Jeffrey Wright
The Boys in the Boat — Joel Edgerton
Past Lives — Greta Lee
Anatomy of a Fall — Sandra Huller
The Color Purple — Fantasia Barrino
Rustin — Colman Domingo
The Zone of Interest — Sandra Huller
Napoleon — Joaquin Phoenix
The Bikeriders — Jodie Comer
Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Challengers:
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
George Clooney, The Boys in the Boat
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Celine Song, Past Lives
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Best Actor — Frontrunners
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Challengers:
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon
Michael Fassbender, The Killer
Best Actress — Frontrunners
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Annette Bening, Nyad
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Challengers:
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Natalie Portman, May December
Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
Helen Mirren, Golda
Aunanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Supporting Actor — Frontrunners
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Challengers:
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Matt Damon, Oppenheimer
Austin Butler, The Bikeriders
Supporting Actress — Frontrunners
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Jodie Foster, Nyad
America Ferrera, Barbie
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Juliet Binoche, The Taste of Things (my bias)
Challengers:
Julianne Moore, May December
Danielle Brooks, THe Color Purple
Sandra Huller, The Zone of Interest
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon
There is probably little chance that Oppenheimer is going to win Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, and Supporting Actor, though it is likely to win at least one of those prizes. When it comes time to actually do the predicting, think about that.
Best Actor hasn’t matched Best Picture since 2010. If Cillian Murphy is winning, then Oppenheimer likely isn’t winning Best Picture.
Now, the rest of the predictions:
Adapted Screenplay
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
American Fiction
All of Us Strangers
Alts: The Killer, The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest
Original Screenplay
The Holdovers
Barbie
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
Maestro
Editing
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Killer
Poor Things
The Holdovers
Cinematography
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Killer
Maestro
Costumes
Poor Things
Barbie
Napoleon
Maestro
Killers of the Flower Moon
Production Design
Poor Things
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Wish
