Oscar Predictions 2024: ‘The Color Purple’ and ‘Napoleon’ Enter the Race

I have maintained The Color Purple’s presence in my Best Picture lineup since my initial attempt at predicting the 2024 Oscars. It secured the third spot on my list during its debut with Blitz Bazawule also making my predicted five for Best Director. Despite the fluctuations in the rankings of other films leading up to its release, I obstinately clung to it, whether out of sheer stubbornness, a sense of pride, or some other underlying motivation.

This week, I found a compelling reminder of why I persisted: The Color Purple boasts an impressive lineup of producers, including the immensely powerful and influential figures Oprah Winfrey, Steven Spielberg, Quincy Jones, and the novel’s author, Alice Walker. This formidable team spearheaded the transition from the Broadway musical rendition of Walker’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel to the grandeur of the big screen.

The screening appears to have been an enormous success, judging by the initial reactions on #FilmTwitter, whose sentiments I share. The Color Purple emerges as a visually stunning triumph, brimming with vibrant hues and boundless joy. The stellar cast is poised to be a formidable contender for the SAG Ensemble, with standout performances from Danielle Brooks, Taraji P. Henson, and the film’s lead, Fantasia Barrino, positioning them as strong contenders for individual accolades. Colman Domingo may find himself in the spotlight as a double nominee for his exceptional work in this film and on Rustin.

This delightful and soul-stirring film seems poised to secure a multitude of Oscar nominations, extending beyond the expected categories of Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor/Actress, and Adapted Screenplay. The meticulous costume designs, captivating set pieces, precise editing, and immersive sound all contribute to the film’s potential recognition. Given the historical success of musicals in the sound category, this aspect could particularly shine.

However, if there’s one notable critique I have about the film — and it’s a substantial one — it’s the music, which, while well-crafted, didn’t strike an instantly memorable chord with me. Lacking those catchy, earworm songs that linger for days. This could be a subjective reaction on my part, influenced by a single viewing. It’s entirely possible that many viewers are already fans of the music, and I acknowledge that my perspective may evolve over time. Nevertheless, this stands as my initial observation and critique of an otherwise impressive film.

In recent weeks, critics have been treated to another significant film, Ridley Scott’s Napoleon, starring Joaquin Phoenix as the iconic Emperor and Vanessa Kirby as his love interest, Josephine. True to the style of recent Scott films, Napoleon unfolds as a grand epic, marked by its ambitious scope, meticulous construction, and opulent set designs, accompanied by riveting battle sequences.

The film navigates an intriguing – if not odd – balance of tones, shifting between gruesome sequences and moments of playful humor, a choice that may prove polarizing for some audiences. Personally, I appreciated the direction taken by Scott and his team. However, my desire for the film leans towards a greater focus on the brilliant strategy and thought process for which Napoleon became infamous, with perhaps less emphasis on the romantic and battle sequences.

While I don’t see it having exceptionally high Oscar odds, it should be on the radar for Production Design, Costume Design, and Sound.

Here’s an update on a few other films I recently caught up with, including a quartet of contenders for Best Documentary Feature:

Flora and Son is a charming and lovely little film that completely took me by surprise. “Meet in the Middle” should be a strong contender for an Original Song nomination. Awards be damned, if you are in the mood for an enchanting, effortless, and warm flick, I would highly recommend Flora and Son.

J. A. Bayona’s Society of the Snow vividly recounts the chilling true story of the 1972 Andes flight disaster, echoing the narrative portrayed in the 90s film, Alive. The film, Spain’s official submission for the 96th Academy Awards’ Best International Feature Film, not only stands as a strong entry in the International race, but also presents itself as a formidable contender in a pair of other races. Michael Giacchino’s exceptional score, resonating almost reverently with the tragic events that claimed 29 lives, enhances the film’s emotional impact. Additionally, Pedro Luque’s breathtaking cinematography adds another layer of intensity to the incredible tale of survival.

Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie proved to be an incredibly moving experience. As someone who grew up in the 80s, Michael J. Fox was an iconic figure, and witnessing an idol confront the challenges of Parkinson’s is undoubtedly one of the most emotionally challenging things to watch. Despite my initial hesitation, I recently took the plunge and found the film to be rather poignant and powerful. Still skillfully weaves together humor and nostalgia using archival footage, scripted recreations, and a personal interview with Michael J. Fox. By shedding light on this tragic and incurable disease, the documentary not only pays tribute to a beloved actor but also raises awareness. It’s noteworthy that Still has received recognition, clinching the Critics Choice Award for Best Documentary.

Errol Morris’ latest documentary, The Pigeon Tunnel, provides a captivating introspective with the esteemed author John le Carré, widely regarded as one of the greatest spy novelists of all time. For fans of le Carré’s work, this documentary is a must-watch, offering insights into the mind of the celebrated writer. After viewing it, I found myself eager to revisit the cinematic adaptation of le Carré’s masterpiece, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, as Morris’ documentary reignited my appreciation for the intricate world of espionage that le Carré has masterfully crafted.

Beyond Utopia is an eye-opening documentary, providing a vivid depiction of life under a tyrannical regime and the relentless pursuit of the most fundamental human rights. The film is not only compelling but also thought-provoking, offering a powerful and devastating look at the challenges faced by individuals striving for freedom from oppression. This is certain to be one of the best docs of the year.

American Symphony is garnering attention as a front-runner for Documentary Feature. The film depicts the life of Jon Batiste (who also happens to give one of my favorite performances in The Color Purple) and captures the contrast between his electrifying charm on stage and the challenging, emotional personal matters he faces offstage. The documentary unfolds as an incredibly inspirational and illuminating tale, showcasing Batiste’s optimism and perseverance in the face of life’s challenges, both big and small.

With awards season well underway, there seems to be little left that could significantly alter the trajectory of the race. The potential wildcard, George Clooney’s The Boys in the Boat, looms as the last unseen contender that might make a substantial impact. Although Origin, Ferrari, and The Iron Claw have already premiered for certain critics, I have yet to experience these films and look forward to assessing their potential influence on the unfolding competition.

Having revisited and revised my predictions in all 20 categories (shorts to follow soon, hopefully), I invite you to begin perusing the updated list, progressing through the various categories at your leisure.