NextGen Oscarwatching: Best Director: A field with endless possibilities, or not?

If there is one above-the-line Oscar category that is incredibly hard to define and identify a strong correlation between winners, it is that of Best Director. While acting races usually come down to narrative/overall performance, and writing awards serve as consolation prizes or preludes to the Best Picture Oscar, Best Directing stands alone in many ways.

Often, in recent years, it’s a technical showcase being recognized (Iñárritu for The Revenant, Cuaron for Roma and Gravity); other times, it’s making history and recognizing career narratives (Campion for The Power of the Dog and Zhao for Nomadland). Lastly, though, and perhaps it can be a combination of these filmmakers, it’s about recognizing the face of the movie they seem to love so deeply (especially true for cases like Bong Joon-Ho for Parasite, Damien Chazelle for La La Land, and the two most recent winners, The Daniels for EEAAO, and Nolan for Oppenheimer).

That is the most critical aspect of the Best Directing Oscar. The filmmaker in question has to not only have a large presence when it comes to the display of vision that is present but also needs to have a strong and often warm personality throughout the awards season. It helps to also have a powerful narrative (overdue, etc.) that can rally industry voters who desire to reward you for the accomplishment. When it comes to the Oscar season of 2024-2025, this is where things become a little bit difficult to fully analyze, at least yet.

Similar to last week’s post, it is too early to say what narratives WILL resonate with industry voters and the general public (if they care to participate), but it is possible to speculate on what narratives CAN resonate with said groups.

If people have been paying attention to the Oscar season so far (or even film Twitter), there are up to three potential directors who have had their films screened (or, in one case, fully released) that have won over the approval of critics who attempt to bring life to the awards race. Those three directors and films being Sean Baker (for Anora) , Brady Corbet (for The Brutalist), and Denis Villeneuve (for Dune: Part II). Though there are a number of others who are in contention that will be brought up throughout the piece, these are the three filmmakers who seem to have the approval of some fellow Oscar pundits, such as Next Best Picture (Matt), The Oscar Expert (Cole) and Brother Bro (Justin). Add onto those three is Jacques Audiard’s ambitious, somewhat divisive musical Emilia Perez, which has been classified by many as the international slot, similar to Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round back in 2020, and most recently, Jonathan Glazer and Justine Triet for The Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall. It’s a solid choice. Lastly, perhaps sight unseen, is Steve McQueen for Blitz, who, having directed 12 Years A Slave back in 2013 and having been snubbed for the underrated 2018 project, Widows, is trying to enter the awards conversation with a more Oscar-friendly project, an analysis of life during the British “Blitz” of the 20^th century.

Before going any further, this isn’t just a consensus handpicked by certain individuals but a large subset of the awards community itself. A noticeable consensus is found on Brother Bro’s app, Awards Expert. While looking at these five, it’s actually very difficult to argue with regarding the current internationally trending voting body and the “narratives” that people have the potential to resonate with.

Other contenders (seen and unseen) that people are speculating include Edward Berger for Conclave, RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys, Greg Kwedar for Sing Sing, Pedro Almodóvar for The Room Next Door, and a set of upcoming projects in Clint Eastwood for Juror No. 2 and Ridley Scott for Gladiator II, most of whom have a very good shot when it comes to landing a DGA nomination, more so than AMPAS. I would be mistaken not to mention the potential passion of Coralie Fargeat for The Substance; in a year with a lack of female representation in the category (after the divisive responses to Marielle Heller’s Nightbitch), there is a path forward if the cards fall correctly.

Then comes the consensus regarding who people think has the best shot of “winning” the category as of now. Undoubtedly, at least according to film Twitter and certain pundits, this is a race between the big and the small. Sean Baker’s intimate portrait of a sex worker in Anora (coming off of a Palme win) vs. Brady Corbet’s ambitious portrayal of a fictional Holocaust survivor in The Brutalist (coming off of a Silver Lion win). Two parallel, opposite presentations have won praise from critics and audiences in a year that people have deemed as weak so far, a subjective comment, of course.

If I had to make a call regarding who has the edge currently between the two, it would be Sean Baker for a few reasons. First and foremost, Baker (and Madison to an extent) define what that film truly is, and if it goes all the way in Best Picture in a steamrolling fashion, it would probably sweep the above-the-line Oscars (think Pic, Dir, Actress, Screenplay, etc.). Similar to Chloe Zhao for Nomadland, Baker also edited the project, and it is clear that he has a very personal correlation to the project as a whole. However, Corbet having directed the “cinematic achievement of the year” on a budget that is less than the average indie is something that might be too difficult to ignore for industry voters, and this race will start to take shape in the critics’ awards. There are many more narratives that can manifest; Steve McQueen or RaMell Ross making history is one of them, as is Ridley Scott receiving his first, or even Eastwood taking his third directing Oscar. Nevertheless, the race has a lot of potential, but as of this week, it seems a consensus is forming.

Predictions

DGA Predix: