Well, that was quite the wake-up call. For months leading up to the ceremony, primarily from September until early January (right before the Golden Globes), it seemed apparent that Sean Baker’s Anora was considered a default Best Picture frontrunner. It had the critics, word of mouth, and in the era of the preferential ballot, that is more than enough to go the distance in multiple categories from Best Picture to Best Director, to Best Actress, and even Original Screenplay. However, this all came to a pause when the Hollywood Foreign Press Association snubbed it in all of its nominated categories in favor of more internationally-flavored projects in Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist and Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez.
Most pundits (including yours truly), believed that the more international and reactionary academy would want to go for something that suits their sensibilities (Brutalist is a technical achievement about the immigration experience, Emilia Perez is a lively musical about the Trans and Mexican experience albeit one that has been criticized by the people it represents), as opposed to a film that for many is looked at as “slight” and “unimportant” as Baker’s film is in current times (albeit a very wrong perspective if I had to add). The Critics Choice Association giving it JUST Best Picture with no screenplay, or director (voting having concluded just days after the Golden Globes) showed how uncertain they were about its prospects.
Editor’s Note: The person who runs this site never doubted Anora’s strength, except briefly after the Golden Globes, but we acknowledge we were in the minority.
To the surprise of many (but not to the editor of Awards Daily), the Producers Guild and the Directors Guild put their feet down and chose to honor Anora in both of its respective categories, putting what was once known as a wide open BP race into one that feels likely to be heading in a certain direction. Considering the voting period for PGA ended before Karla Sofia Gascon’s tweets became a known quantity, this also suggests that Baker’s film was already in a strong position to win the major industry precursor, signifying its unifying consensus.
It is fascinating, after everything Producers could have chosen, from the 3.5 hour epic with a $10 million budget about the immigrant experience, to the Mexican Trans musical that earns votes as a form of advocacy to Focus Feature’s prime Oscar bait project about leadership and the electoral process, the two most significant industry voting bodies (both having thousands of individuals participating in the process) chose Sean Baker’s screwball comedy about a sex worker’s life choices and the simple consequences of those decisions, to be their film of the year, and the most likely reason for why it prevailed has nothing to do with producing achievement or voting as a form of statement, rather, it probably because the average voter thought it was the best.
Anora really shines (like so many of Sean Baker’s filmography) because it unifies people across every political spectrum, from Republican to Democrat, liberal to conservative. It’s funny in some moments, it’s tragic in others, it flies by, but never feels rushed. In a lot of ways it’s a flawless film, one that you just don’t see often nowadays in a hyper polarized environment. Winning the Producers Guild signifies a deep and moving achievement, and I didn’t think it would win that or the DGA not because I didn’t deem it worthy or the best, but rather due to how many perceive it to be “not important enough” to win judging by recent political developments in the world, etc. Though it might not have the financial/cultural phenomenon that Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer had or the important representation found in Sian Heder’s Coda or the Daniels’s EEAAO, its a film that simply unites people, and inspires them to feel empathy for others without having to tear down people. An indie with a heart from a filmmaker who has defined the filmmaking aesthetics that have taken over the zeitgeist over the past few years, and for many, including yours truly, is considered the best film of 2024 by far.
What is the win haul?
On top of reclaiming its frontrunner status in Best Picture and Best Director, the sky is the limit for Baker’s film. It has a very plausible shot to take Original Screenplay, Editing, and Best Actress for Mikey Madison. Six Oscars is pushing it, but judging by recent win hauls, not out of the question. If I had to guess now what I would predict it for, it would be
Favored: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay (I know predicting a film to win all three is exceedingly rare, but the Daniels did pull it off)
On the cusp: Best Editing and Best Actress (BAFTA and SAG will be telling)
Longshot: Best Supporting Actor
It’s frustrating how for so long, I (and so many others) had Anora at #1, but, due to international voters and cold feet, backed off from it. The main lesson I (and many others might have to learn) is just how important industry guilds are, and why they really are what matters compared to critics or the HFPA. It’s not assured, but we know what the frontrunner is now after a month of speculation.
WGA Preview
This Saturday, the Writers Guild will select two films in their categories: Original and Adapted Screenplay.
Original Screenplay
– A Real Pain
– Anora
– Challengers
– Civil War
– My Old Ass
Though it might seem tempting to choose Eisenberg’s well-written exploration of grief, only one film is nominated for Best Picture here, and it is, in fact, the frontrunner.
Prediction: Anora
Spoiler: A Real Pain
Adapted Screenplay
– A Complete Unknown
– Dune Part 2
– Hit Man
– Nickel Boys
– Wicked
Far more wide open than Original, any film besides Hit Man and probably Dune Part 2 can win here. My gut tells me that this is a race between A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys. Though Ross won the first time directing award, and there is clear passion for the film, ACU has hit several major guilds, and with the absence of Conclave, it is probably narrowly favored.
Prediction: A Complete Unknown
Spoiler: Nickel Boys
BAFTA Preview
The second of the two major organizations, the BAFTAS reflect the international taste or contingency of the academy more than any other precursor, and you can find all of their nominations here
Here are my tentative, early predictions for each category. Subject to change
Best Picture: The Brutalist, though my gut suggests it might be Conclave (alt: Conclave or Anora)
Best Director: Brady Corbet (Alt: Sean Baker or Edward Berger)
Best Actor: Adrien Brody (Alt: Timothee Chalamet)
Best Actress: Demi Moore (Alt: Marianne Jean-Baptiste or Mikey Madison)
Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin (Alt: Guy Pearce)
Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana (Alt: Isabelle Rossellini)
Best Original Screenplay: Anora (Alt: The Substance)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Conclave (Alt: Emilia Perez)
Best British Film: Conclave (Alt: Kneecap)
Best Animated Film: Wallace and Gromit (Alt: Flow or The Wild Robot)
Best International Feature: Emilia Perez (alt: Kneecap or I’m Still Here)
Best Casting: A Complete Unknown (Alt: Any of the five)
Best British Debut: Kneecap (alt: Monkey Man)
Best Documentary: No Other Land (Alt: Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story)
Best Cinematography: The Brutalist (Alt: Nosferatu)
Best Editing: Conclave (Alt: Anora or Emilia Perez)
Best Production Design: Wicked (Alt: The Brutalist)
Best Costume Design: Wicked (Alt: Conclave)
Best Make Up and Hair: The Substance (Alt: Nosferatu)
Best Special Visual Effects: Dune Part 2 (Alt: War for The Planet of The Apes)
Best Sound: Dune Part 2 (Alt: Wicked)
Best Original Score: The Brutalist (Alt: Conclave)
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This site’s editor will be posting BAFTA and WGA previews separately.
