Please note: Yes we will be attempting to build Big Fat Predictions chart but without the person who usually does these, it will be a rickety build but we’ll try to get it out. Scott Kernen will be helping. I’d like to take this moment to thank Scott for turning his pieces always on time and doing such a great job. Well done.
The time has come to finally put the pencils down and decide once and for all what each of us think is going to be proclaimed the winner of the 23 Oscar categories this Sunday, march 2nd.
It’s been quite a season, one with early frontrunners that faded into obscurity and underdogs that are now looking at as many as multiple Oscar wins, let alone potential ones on top of those. It’s akin to other seasons, but, as many pundits say, every year is different, and this one should be treated as such.
When it came to writing this piece, I think it’s best to start with Best Picture, and work the way down (unlike some, I tend to start from the most significant to the more obscure ones, but I know everyone does things differently). What many and I have learned throughout the past few seasons (and this one in many instances) is to just settle on a prediction and stick to it.
Without further adieu, let’s get right into it.
Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
Like several of the categories we will discuss throughout this piece, this category seems to have a very soft frontrunner with a very clear number 2. However, there is just not enough evidence to really convince me (or others) to make the bold swing, knowing how often they don’t actually pay off.
Sean Baker’s Anora has won the PGA, DGA, and WGA, on top of the CCA for Best Picture and has not missed a single important nomination throughout this entire Oscar season. Though it did blank at SAG and Golden Globes, plus underperformed slightly at BAFTA (despite winning Actress and Casting), the guilds often do reign supreme, and, at least when it comes to general sentiment, is looked at as the film of the year, critically, and when it comes to the award season (honoring Sean Baker has taken the project very far).
Only two things really prevent it from feeling assured: its inconsistent win haul and the presence of Edward Berger’s Conclave, which has made quite the comeback with a SAG ensemble victory and a Bafta best film win. It’s the clear number two, and on a preferential ballot, a film as well-liked and timely as that could prevail. However, SAG/BAFTA is not a convincing combo, and though the film could win in Screenplay/Editing/Picture like Argo and Crash, it’s hard to bet against a film that has not missed much in terms of nominations, plus winning on the preferential ballot is a sign of strength for Baker’s film.
Prediction: Anora
Challenger: Conclave
Best Director
Anora, Sean Baker
The Brutalist, Brady Corbet
A Complete Unknown, James Mangold
Emilia Pérez, Jacques Audiard
The Substance, Coralie Fargeat
What once started as a potential sweep for Brady Corbet and his astounding achievement in The Brutalist has, based on one important win and vibes, has reverted back to honoring Sean Baker and his contributions to the film medium through the presence of his independent style of filmmaking. Though winning the Golden Globe and the BAFTA is nothing to scoff at, the DGA is a big indicator of the amount of strength Baker has with directors and the industry, plus The Brutalist’s difficulty in appealing to normies, having faltered at numerous guilds. Alongside a win for Best Picture, it seems only appropriate to recognize Baker in this category, though these two might not be his only forms of recognition this Sunday
Prediction: Sean Baker, Anora
Challenger: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
We have a race on our hands here. After winning the vast majority of critic awards, the Golden Globe, the CCA, and the Bafta, it all stopped for Adrien Brody when Timothee Chalamet prevailed at the Screen Actors Guild, which reinforced just how disliked The Brutalist seems to be when it comes to guild voters.
Despite this precursor loss though, it’s clear based on the nominations that The Brutalist is more beloved by AMPAS voters than it is by the guilds, and with the international flavor of the academy, one would assume Brody might be given an edge here.
Prediction: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Challenger: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Fittingly, this is the category that is keeping everyone up at night. What once started with Mikey Madison as a perceived frontrunner, morphed into a narrative run for Demi Moore, is now finally back to being a two-person race, between the well-respected veteran, and the ingenue.
Perhaps hypocritically, my gut instinct is telling me to lean towards Madison (the one with less precursors), rather than Moore, simply on the basis that I think Best Picture strength, more often than not, determines close races (especially in Best Actress), and if Anora is really going to win Best Picture, it still feels weird for the titular role of Anora not to win (though the guilds point to this occurring). The Bafta win, plus the vibes that Anora is much stronger than The Substance, leads me to predict this.
Prediction: Mikey Madison, Anora
Challenger: Demi Moore, The Substance
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Talk about an easy category. Kieran Culkin has won several critics’ groups and steamrolled the televised precursors despite A Real Pain’s lack of presence elsewhere outside of the Original Screenplay. One can make an argument that Yura Borisov or Edward Norton are the runners-up to Culkin, but this feels fairly sewn up.
Prediction: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Challenger: Yura Borisov, Anora
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Akin to Best Supporting Actor, this is signed, sealed, and delivered for Zoe Saldana. Despite Emilia Perez’s controversy, Saldana has sustained despite all of that. Ariana Grande is the clear number two, but a distant one.
Prediction: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Challenger: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Best Original Screenplay
Anora, Written by Sean Baker
The Brutalist, Written by Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
A Real Pain, Written by Jesse Eisenberg
September 5, Written by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David
The Substance, Written by Coralie Fargeat
What should be a slam dunk for Sean Baker’s baity script on display in Anora is instead, a surprisingly competitive one between itself, Eisenberg’s humane dramady, and to a lesser extent, Fargeat’s stylistic vision.
Though the Bafta and CCA losses are ominous, WGA is very strong in predicting Oscar winners, and when in doubt, go with the strongest film in the Best Picture race. Though stats break all the time, and A Real Pain could win here, it’s lack of a best picture nom makes it hard to see happening. Baker could very easily become the first filmmaker in a long time to win three Oscars as a sole writer on his film, and he would be a deserving person of that feat.
Prediction: Anora
Challenger: A Real Pain
Best Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown, Screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks
Conclave, Screenplay by Peter Straughan
Emilia Pérez, Screenplay by Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi
Nickel Boys, Screenplay by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes
Sing Sing, Screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
Perhaps the biggest lock of the night outside of the supporting categories, Straughn’s spicy script for Conclave has dominated the season, winning every precursor except for WGA where it wasn’t eligible. Though Ross’s vision for Nickel Boys did prevail at the Writers Guild and there is clear passion for it, it just doesn’t feel like enough to take down the number two (or number one for some) in Best Picture
Prediction: Conclave
Challenger: Nickel Boys
For the remainder of the categories, akin to the nomination predictions, I will choose the frontrunner and its challenger more briefly.
Best Animated Feature
Prediction: The Wild Robot
Challenger: Flow
Reasoning: Don’t bet against the PGA/Annie/CCA winner if there is no clear alternative
Best Documentary Feature
Prediction: No Other Land
Challenger: Porcelain War
Reasoning: Based more on vibes than stats, No Other Land is the most talked about documentary of the year, though the presence of a DGA win for the Ukraine doc might be enough to cause some doubt.
Best International Feature
Prediction: I’m Still Here
Challenger: Emilia Perez
Reasoning: Akin to documentary, this is very much based on vibes compared to anything else, the BP nom and passion for Salles’ film, plus the controversy for EP, might result in the former winning.
Best Cinematography
Prediction: The Brutalist
Challenger: Nosferatu
Reasoning: A soft frontrunner, Crawley’s work in The Brutalist is fairly undeniable on the merit, but the ASC loss to Maria plus the CCA loss to Nosferatu is concerning.
Best Film Editing
Prediction: Conclave
Challenger: Anora
Without ACE, and Challengers being snubbed despite the CCA win, all we have to base off of is the BAFTA winner. With BP strength and praise for its technical merit in this category, it feels like a good film to predict for this category. If Anora wins here, it’s four Oscars for Baker.
Best Production Design
Prediction: Wicked
Challenger: The Brutalist
A sweeper in every sense of that word, Wicked won the Guild, Bafta, and CCA. Very difficult to find a case for anything else, and the work in The Brutalist feels like a hypothetical number two.
Best Costume Design
Prediction: Wicked
Challenger: Conclave
Having won CCA, the Guild, and Bafta, it’s another sweeper, with Conclave acting as a hypothetical number two.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Prediction: The Substance
Challenger: Wicked
Another locked category, The Substance has won the Guild, CCA, and Bafta, with Moore as a strong acting contender, it’s an added bonus, or at the very least a consolation prize for the film.
Best Sound
Prediction: Dune Part 2
Challenger: A Complete Unknown
Prior to this weekend, many believed Dune Part 2 would repeat in this category compared to the first. However, after losing Cinema Audio Society, many believe an upset in ACU was possible. However, Denis’ film remains a soft frontrunner in the category, one that feels difficult to move away from.
Best Original Score
Prediction: The Brutalist
Challenger: Conclave
Only having won the Bafta, Blumberg’s remarkable score for The Brutalist feels like another soft frontrunner with no real alternative, though an upset could happen here and this category has been unpredictable proven by Challengers’ snub here. Nevertheless the acclaim for the score in The Brutalist, plus its bafta win, is enough to solidify it as the number one.
Best Visual Effects
Prediction: Dune Part 2
Challenger: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Not much to say here other than Dune Part 2 being not only the strongest film visual effects wise, but a Best Picture nominee present here alongside Wicked and a Bafta winner. Though Apes won the guild, this feels fairly solid for Denis’ film.
Best Original Song
Prediction: El Mal from Emilia Perez
Challenger: The Journey from The Six Triple Eight
Though the EP controversy might have tainted its chances for other categories, this and supporting actress have been remarkably stable throughout the season. Though one would want Diane Warren to win sometime, this probably won’t be the year for that to happen.
Best Live Action Short
Prediction: A Lien
Challenger: Any of the four
Best Animated Short
Prediction: Wander to Wonder
Challenger: Any of the four
Best Documentary Short
Prediction: The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Challenger: Any of the four
It’s been a crazy Oscar season, and I can’t believe it’s almost over. At this point, it’s best just to enjoy the ride, and the festivities this Sunday.
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