NextGen Oscarwatcher: Reflecting on the First Half of the Year

It’s crazy how fast time flies by nowadays. The first half of the year has officially come and gone, with several films released, though, in traditional Oscar fashion, not much has been truly undeniable to the public and critics outside of a few select projects.

The period between when the Oscars end (this year being March 2nd) and now, June 30th, is always a good opportunity for people to catch up on certain blind spots, indulge in the obscure spring releases, or take a break from it all and reflect. Cannes, being the launchpad for international Oscar contenders and Best Picture nominees, is worth paying attention to. However, since many people do not attend the festival and rely on other reviewers to build up anticipation, it’s best to wait until one has an opportunity to see them.

I will be attending the Telluride Film Festival this year (and will offer my thoughts on what I see), so I hope plenty of the Cannes projects end up screening there. That, however, is a conversation for when Venice and TIFF release more information regarding what is playing at their respective festivals.

What sticks out from the first half of the year

The true answer is not that much in terms of what truly can be a notable awards push. The only one that is undeniably a major frontrunner and has defined the first six months of the year is Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. What Coogler has done in creating a “Social Horror film” in the vein of Jordan Peele, only far more ambitious and overtly populist, is commendable. Everything from the score to the cinematography to the ensemble all truly works. Akin to the Daniels’ Everything Everywhere All At Once, it’s the talk of the industry, and at least domestically, won’t be forgotten by the year’s end.

However, despite my strong belief that the film is a shoo-in for a Best Picture nomination, the chances of it winning it all and sweeping are more a matter of “wait and see” than anything else. It is the populist “auteur” film of the year (similar to Kosinski’s Top Gun Maverick and Greta Gerwig’s Barbie). Still, the one hurdle those films had that prevented them from becoming more formidable was the lack of international love. Coogler’s film is not nearly as beloved as it is here when compared to overseas markets, and with the Academy becoming increasingly international, that will be a challenge to overcome. Who knows, though, many of the international contingent of the academy will embrace it, and this race is already over.

Other notable contenders in other categories that have been released in the first half of the year include Kosinski’s  F1: The Movie (which I found to be completely invigorating). However, I think it’s more of a below-the-line project than anything else. Eve Victor’s Sorry, Baby, which opened up in limited markets after premiering at Sundance (a strong debut), though I think its small nature will dim its chances outside of critics and indie circles, plus Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck, which has been getting positive notices. However, its box office and lack of buzz could hurt its chances of staying strong throughout the year.

The Festivals

What everyone is truly waiting for as we enter the month of July is information regarding Venice and TIFF.

Last week, Toronto announced the first five films to premiere at their 50th festival, running from September 4 to 14. They are as follows.

The Captive | Alejandro Amenábar | Spain / Italy
World Premiere | Special Presentation

The Christophers | Steven Soderbergh | UK
World Premiere | Special Presentation

Good News | Sung-hyun Byun | South Korea
World Premiere | Special Presentation

Hedda | Nia DaCosta | USA
World Premiere | Special Presentation

Mile End Kicks | Chandler Levack | Canada
World Premiere | Special Presentation

The standout from this film, as mentioned, is Nia DaCosta’s Hedda. Although I am not ready to suggest this could be the discovery of the festival, DaCosta is a filmmaker who seems to be experiencing a significant career boost, with this and the 28 Years Later project on the horizon.

Steven Soderbergh never sleeps either, as this would be the second film of his released this year, alongside Black Bag.

Venice will announce its selections in 2-3 weeks, and TIFF, hopefully, will continue to announce projects every week or so.

After that, Telluride will become easier to figure out.

Oscar Predictions

There isn’t much difference this week, which will probably be the norm until the festivals arrive.

Best Picture

1. Marty Supreme
2. Sentimental Value
3. Sinners
4. One Battle After Another
5. Wicked: For Good
6. Ann Lee
7. After the Hunt
8. Jay Kelly
9. Bugonia
10. It Was Just an Accident

Best Director

1. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
4. Mona Fastvold, Ann Lee
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Best Actress

1. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee
2. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
3. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
4. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Best Actor

1. Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Best Supporting Actress

1. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
2. Ayo Edebri, After The Hunt
3. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actor

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
4. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
5. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sentimental Value
2. Marty Supreme
3. Jay Kelly
4. Sinners
5. After the Hunt

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Bugonia
3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
4. Hedda
5. The Life of Chuck

Best Casting

1. Sinners
2. Marty Supreme
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
5. Wake Up Dead Man

Best Cinematography

1. Ann Lee
2. Frankenstein
3. Marty Supreme
4. One Battle After Another
5. Sound of Falling

Best Editing

1. Marty Supreme
2. Sentimental Value
3. Sinners
4. After the Hunt
5. One Battle After Another

Best Production Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Ann Lee
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Sinners

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Ann Lee
4. Sinners
5. Hamnet

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. The Smashing Machine
4. Sinners
5. 28 Years Later

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Superman
3. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
5. Wicked: For Good

Best Sound

1. F1
2. Sinners
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Warfare

Best Score

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Ann Lee
4. Frankenstein
5. F1

Best Original Song

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Ann Lee
3. Relentless (Diane Warren Biopic)
4. Wicked Song #2
5. Bruce Springsteen song for Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value
2. The Secret Agent
3. Sound Of Falling
4. Sirât
5. It Was Just an Accident (though if it is not submitted considering the director’s relationship with the country and no one picks it up, I would go with All That’s Left of you)

Best Animated Feature

1. A Magnificent Life
2. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
3. Arco
4. Zootopia 2
5. Elio

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Mr. Nobody Againt Putin
3. Cutting Through Rocks
4. Seeds
5. André Is an Idiot

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