Nextgen Oscarwatcher: What makes a Best Picture Winner?

Just a little over a week from now will be the start of the fall film festivals, with Venice and Telluride kicking off what is expected to be a fairly substantial amount of world premieres and projects that just haven’t been seen by a large number of individuals yet. No matter how many seasons one lives through or witnesses, the excitement over what the remainder of the year holds for filmmaking and what these craftsmen have put together, is always something to look forward to.

Recent years have shown that what drives a Best Picture winner isn’t necessarily found in these festivals (The Daniels’ Everything Everywhere All At Once premiering at SXSW but the word of mouth driving it forward, Nolan’s Oppenheimer going the distance without one entirely, and Heder’s Coda premiering virtually at Sundance and releasing on streaming in the summer). Sean Baker’s Anora is really an exception to this rule, where its dominance over festivals became its signature calling to the audience to ultimately seek the movie out, and the rest was history.

The fact of the matter is, though, proven year after year after year, is that a film needs support from a “broad” group of people to go the distance. This applies to films that do not necessarily appeal to normies, such as Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland or Guillermo Del Toro’s The Shape of Water, which were both assisted by love for the filmmakers involved and how relevant these films were to modern themes or topics that defined society as a whole.

Even films that do not appeal to the “highbrow” academy, such as Peter Farrelly’s Green Book or Sian Heder’s Coda, have aspects that people can get behind, such as social topics or themes that, at the end of the day, advocate for something better, regardless of the execution or originality of these representations.

Despite how early the season is, it’s always important to speculate what Narratives can define the Oscar season as a whole.

Potential Oscar Narratives This Year So Far

The biggest takeaway from the first half of the year is that of Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, which, truthfully, everyone who follows the Oscars has seen and has at least discussed if this is the one to “go all the way.” The narrative is strong, with Coogler’s respect in the industry, and the lack of a Black filmmaker ever winning Best Director, this could finally be the time for that streak to end, and it would be quite a deserved Oscar considering the vision and execution. Furthermore, Sinners fits the zeitgeist of the “New Academy” and the honoring of different projects, or ones that would not be considered “Awards Friendly” or “Traditional.” A Vampire Social Exploration combining Gunn’s Ganja & Hess and Peele’s Get Out would fit right in with the same industry that voted for the Daniels’s Everything Everywhere All At Once and Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite.

Coogler’s film isn’t the only one with a strong narrative or acclaim that has screened, with Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value being looked at as the “Cannes Discovery.” Though it didn’t win the Palme d’Or, Trier’s film is what the Cannes audience is discussing, with its incredible performances and multi-layered script being what sticks with people. Considering how international the academy has become, and how Cannes truly is a blueprint for their newly acquired tastes or interests, it would not be shocking in the slightest if this continues to play well with audiences (and the fall festivals specifically, as it is headed to Telluride, TIFF, and NYFF). There is also Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just An Accident, which had a strong trailer found here and will be headed to the Fall Film Festivals as well. It’s Palme d’Or label pushing the project to be one people will likely talk about year-round.

Potential Oscar Narratives of Venice and Telluride

With Venice and Telluride approaching next week, it’s important to analyze what each festival has to offer, but most importantly, the crossover between them.

The biggest film to make the jump from Venice to Telluride, proven by its NYFF premiere label, is that of Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly, (where you can find the trailer here) and the conversations that have erupted regarding the filmmaker’s narrative, plus the likely strong performances from George Clooney and Adam Sandler, amongst an ensemble cast. Though its lack of presence at TIFF is strange, one can make the argument that this likely is Netflix’s big awards push and has the potential to be strong this entire season. It’s a classic Oscar bait project, one that is seemingly explorative of human connection and its connection to filmmaking as a whole (like so many projects such as Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), that one can’t help but wonder if its too much of a “standard” Oscar choice that its chances of winning will be hurt due to potential “been there, done that” energy. Another notable film at Venice that might make a stop at Telluride is Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia, which is promised to be a true swing from the filmmaker. Whether or not it’s a true success remains to be seen.

The world premieres of Telluride are promised to be notable, with the three biggest confirmations being Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet, Edward Berger’s Ballad of a Small Player, and Scott Cooper’s Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere. Whether or not these projects turn out to be major Oscar contenders or more “lower-tier” offerings remains to be seen next week.

Rumors of a premiere of Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme at either Telluride or NYFF (courtesy of Ruimy’s article, found here) following a strong trailer (found here) would be truly something, but it might be too good to be true. Nevertheless, a narrative of honoring Chalamet and a Safdie brother (though Benny has a film in The Smashing Machine) is also something that could play a factor this year.

Films premiering at Venice and skipping Telluride include Guilermo Del Toro’s Frankenstein (screening at TIFF), Mona Fastvold’s The Testament of Ann Lee (screening at TIFF), Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine (screening at TIFF), and Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt (opening night at NYFF)

These are just some of the Oscar contenders that will be premiering in just a week and a half from now. It’s going to be quite an adventure for everyone.

Oscar Predictions

For this week, not much has changed. It felt wrong of me to be so confident to swap out Chalamet for Clooney for #1 in Best Actor, because truthfully, based on that trailer, it seems like a tossup between the two of them at this moment. Sticking to my convictions with Clooney in first place, but if Chalamet defines the year like so many suggest that year, this could be the time for him to finally win. Adapted Screenplay also feels incredibly hard to call, with One Battle After Another and Hamnet chugging for number one in my ranking, due to the amount of nominations I have the latter getting, I have moved it to #1 over PTA’s film.

I also have moved Paul Mescal into my number five spot in supporting actor and took out Andrew Garfield in After the Hunt.

Here are the predictions for this week

Best Picture

Sinners
Sentimental Value
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
Wicked for Good
The Testament of Ann Lee
Rental Family
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
It Was Just an Accident

Best Director

Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee
Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly

Best Actress

Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Best Actor

George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Brendan Fraser, Rental Family
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Best Supporting Actress

Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family
Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Laura Dern, Jay Kelly

Best Supporting Actor

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Best Original Screenplay

Jay Kelly
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Rental Family
It Was Just An Accident

Best Adapted Screenplay

Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Bugonia
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Casting

Sinners
Marty Supreme
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Rental Family
Jay Kelly

Best Cinematography

The Testament of Ann Lee
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Jay Kelly

Best Editing

Sinners
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
One Battle After Another
Wicked: For Good

Best Production Design

Wicked: For Good
Frankenstein
Ann Lee
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Sinners

Best Costume Design

Wicked: For Good
Frankenstein
Ann Lee
Sinners
Hamnet

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Frankenstein
Wicked: For Good
The Smashing Machine
Sinners
28 Years Later

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash
Superman
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Wicked: For Good

Best Sound

F1
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Sinners
Avatar: Fire and Ash
One Battle After Another

Best Score

Sinners
Ann Lee
Frankenstein
Jay Kelly
Hamnet

Best Original Song

Wicked: For Good (Cynthia Erivo)
Ann Lee
Dear Me (Diane Warren Biopic)
Wicked Song #2 (Ariana Grande)
I Lied To You from Sinners

Best International Feature

Sentimental Value
The Secret Agent
Sound Of Falling
No Other Choice
It Was Just an Accident (though if it is not submitted, considering the director’s relationship with the country, and no one picks it up, I would go with The Voice of Hind Rajab)

Best Animated Feature