2026 Oscar Predictions: The Calm Before the Storm

The tastemakers will be descending upon the mountains of Telluride and the sea breeze of Venice just a week from today, kicking off the “Best Picture from a Film Festival” Oscar race. Just ahead of this, Vanity Fair has posted a splashy First Look at Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet, expected to arrive at Telluride and probably will make its way comfortably into the Oscar race. Production design is a given. But what else might we expect? Guessing from the piece, Best Actress is next for a nomination, and perhaps Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay.

Here are thumbnails that depict what Hamnet is about, what its production design looks like, all courtesy of Focus Features. You can see the rest of them at Vanity Fair.

Here are some choice quotes:

Zhao has already won Picture and Director. Hamnet has both Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes involved as producers and giving Zhao notes. The film will have to be terrible for it not to be a major player in the Oscar race. I don’t see how this many chefs could ruin the broth.

Zhao adapted the screenplay, as most directors do now, which often means that nearly all of the Best Picture contenders are written and directed by the same person. Last year, Sean Baker broke all of the rules as the sole writer and director of Anora, winning both Picture and Original Screenplay, along with Editing. That means this is a whole new voting body because such a thing either never happened or rarely happened in all of Oscar history. Most of the time, as with Parasite, there is a co-writer.

But now, the way things look, writers are directors and directors are writers and actors are writers and directors, and there doesn’t seem to be much to divide them anymore, like there used to be.

The past Best Picture winners have been directed and written by the same person — whether they won Screenplay or not:

Original Screenplay
2024—Anora – Sean Baker wrote and directed the film, won Picture, Director and Screenplay.
2022–Everything, Everywhere All At Once — written and directed by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert. Won Picture, Director and Screenplay.
2019—Parasite — Directed by Bong Joon-Ho, co-written with Han Jin-won, won Picture, Director and Screenplay.  
2018–Green Book — Written by Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly & Nick Vallelonga – Won Picture and Screenplay.
2017–The Shape of Water — Directed by Guillermo del Toro, co-written with Vanessa Taylor. Won Picture and Director.
2015–Spotlight – Directed by Tom McCarthy, co-written by Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy, won Picture and Screenplay.
2014–Birdman — Directed by Alejandro G. Inarritu, co-written by Armando Bo, Alexander Dinelaris Jr., Nicolás Giacobone & Alejandro G. Iñárritu. Won Picture, Director and Screenplay.
2011–The Artist — Written and Directed by Michel Hazanavicius, won Picture and Director.
2010–The King’s Speech — Directed by Tom Hooper, written by David Seidler. Won Picture, Director and Screenplay. 
2009–The Hurt Locker — Directed by Kathryn Bigelow, written by Mark Boal. Won Picture, Director and Screenplay.
2005–Crash — Directed by Paul Haggis, co-written by Haggis and Bobby Moresco. Won Picture and Screenplay.

Adapted
2023–Oppenheimer — Christopher Nolan adapted the book, but just won Picture and Director.
2021–CODA — Sian Heder adapted, won Picture and Screenplay.
2020-Nomadland — Chloe Zhao adapted, won Picture and Screenplay.
2016–Moonlight — Barry Jenkins directed and wrote the screenplay. Won Picture and Screenplay.
2013-12 Years a Slave — Directed by Steve McQueen, written by John Ridley. Won Picture and Screenplay. 
2012-Argo — Directed by Ben Affleck, written by Chris Terrio. Won Picture and Screenplay.
2008–Slumdog Millionaire — Directed by Danny Boyle, written by Simon Beaufoy. Won Picture, Director, and Screenplay.
2007—No Country for Old Men — Directed and written by the Coen brothers, won Picture, Director and Screenplay.
2006—The Departed — Directed by Martin Scorsese, written by William Monahan, won Picture, Director and Screenplay.
2004—MillIon Dollar Baby — Directed by Clint Eastwood, written by Paul Haggis. Won Picture and Director. 
2003—Return of the King — Directed by Peter Jackson, co-written by Jackson, Philippa Boyens and Fran Walsh. Won Picture, Director and Screenplay.
2002–Chicago — Directed by Rob Marshall, written by Bill Condon, won Picture. 
2001–A Beautiful Mind — Directed by Ron Howard, written by Akiva Goldsman, won Picture, Director and Screenplay.
2000–Gladiator — Directed by Ridley Scott, written by David Franzoni, John Logan & William Nicholson, won Picture. 

I tried to put the ones that were written and directed by the same people in red and different people in blue. But as you can see, The King’s Speech in original and 12 Years a Slave in adapted mark the last time films won without the director having written or co-written the screenplay. That’s over a decade. I don’t know what that tells us about the Oscar race or the film industry now, but it is the reality.

Does it mean more independent funding? Does it mean a more micromanaged Oscar race? Does it mean the idea of a screenwriter out there selling scripts is not as much of a thing? Or is it that our intense focus on identity has driven us not toward the director so much, but toward the writer and their singular vision?

I miss the days of great directors and great screenplays. I don’t think every writer can direct well, nor do I think a great writer can direct well. They’re okay. Someone like Sean Baker is more of a director than a writer, but his writing comes more organically from the world he’s trying to depict. The same could be said for The Daniels and Everything, Everywhere All Once. It was more about the cinematic experience than the writing.

Most of the films in the Oscar race, if not all, are most likely written and directed by the same person. Let’s go through them.

Films written or co-written by the director:

Sinners — written and directed by Ryan Coogler
Sentimental Value — written and directed by Joaquim Trier with Eskil Vogt.
Hamnet — adapted (with Maggie O’Farrell) and directed by Chloe Zhao
Jay Kelly — written and directed by Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere — written and directed by Scott Cooper
The Testament of Ann Lee — co-written (with Brady Corbet) and directed by Mona Fastvold.
Roofman — written (with Kirt Gunn) and directed by Derek Cianfrance.
Frankenstein — written and directed by Guillermo Del Toro.
One Battle After Another — written and directed by Paul Thomas Anderson
Marty Supreme — written (with Ronald Bronstein) and directed by Josh Safdie
The Lost Bus — written (with Brad Ingelsby) and directed by Paul Greengrass
Ella McCay — written and directed by James L. Brooks
Rental Family — written (with Stephen Blahut) and directed by Hikari
Eddington — written and directed by Ari Aster
Weapons — written and directed by Zach Cregger
The Smashing Machine — written and directed by Benny Safdie

Films with different writers and directors:
Bugonia — directed by Yorgos Lanthimos and written by Will Tracy.
Wicked for Good — Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox
Ballad of a Small Player — written by Rowan Joffe, directed by Edward Berger
After the Hunt — written by Nora Garett, directed by Luca Guadagnino
The Roses — written by Tony McNamara, directed by Jay Roach

That’s kind of wild, right? Writers became directors and directors became writers. That is especially true this year.

One week before Venice and Telluride is a terrible time to make predictions. They’re most certainly going to be wrong. Last year, Anora and Conclave were on my radar, but it wasn’t like I had all of the predictions set. Not even close. Most of us had about 5/10 for Best Picture and I expect my list today to be exactly the same. We have absolutely no idea how this will go.

But let’s do it anyway:

Best Picture
Sinners
Sentimental Value
Hamnet
Wicked for Good
Ballad of a Small Player
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
After the Hunt
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Bugonia

Next tier:
Weapons
It was Just an Accident
One Battle After Another
The Life of Chuck
The Lost Bus
Avatar: Fire and Ash
A House of Dynamite
Warfare

Director
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked for Good
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Best Actor
Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player
Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Supporting Actress
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

Supporting Actor
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Delroy Lindo, Sinner
Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me Nowhere

The crew from The Contending will be attending for the first time (Megan and Joey, along with Clarence), so be sure to tune in to see what they’re up to. Mark Johnson will be attending, writing for Awardswatch.com.

That’s all I have for now. Have a nice weekend.