2026 Oscar Predictions: Beware the Film Festival Mirage

The Oscar race has become a small, insulated bubble, separate from the rest of the country and even the film industry. While it’s true that egos still drive the desire to win an Oscar, that doesn’t mean they carry the same kind of value they once did. It isn’t that the brand has become tarnished so much as it exists for itself, and that can only really take you so far. On the other hand, it is still important enough that when someone dies, the first thing they say is “Oscar winner” or “Oscar nominee.” It still matters.

But a race where movies are decided by a cabal of tastemakers, or a hive mind where everyone kind of feeds off of everyone else’s opinion, it shrinks the purpose of the whole thing. Watching the reactions come out of Venice now, and soon to be in Telluride, it’s necessary to always know your critics. Know their limits and their weaknesses. Know what they know. Understand who they are and why their opinion would be what it is.

That’s for people like me who won’t be seeing many of these movies for a while but still need to assess the Oscar race. Ordinarily, I would have attended Telluride and seen many of the movies considered for this year’s race. This is the first time in about 15 years that I haven’t attended the festival, and I’m watching it now from home, or rather, watching the reactions.

When a movie causes a sensation – as Anora did, as The Shape of Water did, as The Artist did, as Parasite did, they don’t need much to push them through. However, it doesn’t mean that a movie won’t have a life in the Oscar race simply because it doesn’t win over critics at a film festival, as with Jay Kelly or After the Hunt, or even Bugonia or whatever comes out of Telluride.

I have seen films completely turn around. I’ll never forget Scott Feinberg panning Life of Pi, for instance, from the New York Film Festival and everyone writing it off. Well, that movie ended up winning hearts and eventually won Ang Lee Best Director over Steven Spielberg for Lincoln (though Argo won Best Picture).

Festival critics don’t mean everything. David Ehlrich can kill a movie out of Telluride, as he did with Empire of Light. I have no idea if he did it because he was “offended” by the presence of a race-oriented storyline that wasn’t his story to tell (offended white person on behalf of Black people) or if he just felt like harpooning something that had Oscar buzz. I have no idea. It irritated me beyond belief, and if I could have undone that, I would have, but the movie died a quick death after that. It never had a chance.

The only reason that mattered is that Ehlrich is among the high-status influencer critics who draw a gaggle of admirers who want to be like him. So they tend to mirror his opinion much of the time (not all of the time). And that is how you can build a consensus, even if it is a small one. That consensus can then inform the critics’ awards, which in turn can influence the Oscars.

It’s not quite as bad in Venice as it is in Telluride, which is populated with little cliques of Film Twitter. There’s the Next Best Picture clique, the AwardsWatch clique, the Variety and Penske media clique, and then there are the higher-status individuals who aren’t so much a clique but carry significant influence, such as Ehlrich.

There is The Contending clique there now (with Clarence, Megan, and Joey), which is more or less the Awards Daily clique if such a thing exists, but Scott Kernen is there as the sole rep for AD — which is great because he’s an outsider and so are we. You should check out what they all have to say as the three of them are there for the first time.

We are tribal by nature, and that is just as true when it comes to Oscar punditry. We tend to group together and share our opinions, which is what builds the consensus but it can also be a mirage. That is how you ended up with ALL of the Gold Derby pundits getting it so wrong last year by underestimating Anora.

It helped me get it right that I was not part of any of these little clubs. I didn’t have group chats with other pundits. I didn’t look at their predictions. I tried, instead, to look at the movies themselves, which is the best way to assess an Oscar year. What often happens, as happened last year, is what I call the “Girl Next Door” theory.

There are two kinds of Oscar contenders for Best Picture: The Girl Next Door and the One Night Stand. The Girl Next Door is the one you know, the one who has been around a while but is easy to overlook or take for granted. Maybe she’s survived a rumor or two, a backlash or two, but she’s still there as the one you might potentially marry. The one-night stand arrives in a whirlwind. You can’t control your feelings as you are caught up in the magic of it all, magic that usually doesn’t last.

What we no longer have in the Oscar race are many one-night stand winners, although they used to occur frequently. The idea is that the film will be released at the end of the year, around December, and sweep everyone up in its passion, ultimately winning the Best Picture award. That was Shakespeare in Love, for instance.

But lately, by now, we’ve usually already seen the Best Picture winner, or are about to see it (Telluride, Toronto, Venice). Let’s look at how it’s going back to the year 2000:

2000–Gladiator – general release in May (Girl Next Door)
2001–A Beautiful Mind — December release (One Night Stand)
2002–Chicago — December release (One Night Stand)
2003–Return of the King — December release (Girl Next Door because it was already a trilogy)
2004–Million Dollar Baby — December release (One Night Stand)

Oscar changes its date and moves it back from late March to late February

2005–Crash — Toronto in September (Girl Next Door)
2006–The Departed — September (Girl Next Door)
2007–No Country for Old Men–Cannes in May (Girl Next Door)
2008–Slumdog Millionaire–Telluride, August (Girl Next Door)
2009–The Hurt Locker –Toronto, September, the year before (Girl Next Door)
2010–The King’s Speech — Telluride, August (Girl Next Door)
2011-The Artist — Cannes, May, (Girl Next Door)
2012–Argo–Telluride, August (Girl Next Door)
2013–12 Years a Slave–Telluride, August (Girl Next Door)
2014–Birdman –Venice/Telluride, August (Girl Next Door)
2015–Spotlight –Venice/Telluride, September (Girl Next Door)
2016–Moonlight–Telluride, August (Girl Next Door)
2017–The Shape of Water–Venice/Telluride (Girl Next Door)
2018–Green Book–Toronto-September (Girl Next Door)
2019–Parasite — Cannes in May (Girl Next Door)
2020–Nomadland–Venice, September (Girl Next Door)
2021–CODA–Sundance, January (Girl Next Door)
2022-Everything Everywhere All At Once–SXSW, March (Girl Next Door)
2023–Oppenheimer–July (Girl Next Door)
2024–Anora — Cannes in May (Girl Next Door)

The only possible exceptions to this would be films like Parasite or CODA, which flew under the radar, whereas other films might have been the “Girl Next Door,” such as 1917 or The Power of the Dog. However, since they were spotted early and had been around for a while, they can’t be seen as having suddenly appeared.

I’ve been Oscar-watching for so long, I’ve seen the pattern play out many times. Pundits tend to overlook the Girl Next Door to chase after the One Night Stand, but by the end of the season, they usually come back around to the one that’s been there all along. Last year’s Anora is probably the strongest recent example of that.

What I knew last year was that if they couldn’t vote for Emilia Perez, and they were being forced to vote for The Brutalist, they would opt for the reliable, sure bet, and good movie, which was Anora.

One of the biggest problems is that Oscar pundits elevate movies to frontrunner status before they’ve been seen. Then, their expectations are already set too high, and most films can’t live up to that kind of hype, so the movie falters, or it seems to, because it can’t meet the standards of being a frontrunner.

What this ultimately means is that we can’t know how things will land at this moment in time. We can only guess. By the time Telluride comes to an end, after Labor Day, we will have a better idea of where the films stand.

Weapons on the Rise

I feel like Amy Madigan now has cleared the field, at least as of today, to take home an Oscar for her supporting turn in Weapons. It’s just a hunch, and it might change, but today I make that prediction. I’m also adding Weapons to my Best Picture predictions.

The Girl Next Door theory means going with what you know rather than what you do not know. I think Weapons is a strong film, one that could easily resonate by year’s end, and if it’s true that Amy Madigan will be a strong contender for the win, it seems logical it will be considered in other categories. For instance, it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility that Zach Cregger finds himself with a DGA nomination.

Moreover, I have a strange feeling that Frankenstein might join the lineup for horror movies, crashing the party. I could be wrong, but for now, it’s as good a guess as any.

But since it’s Friday, and I have to make a list, I will do my best to take a guess — none of which should be taken seriously. I have changed them up in the Award Expert App (you can follow me there if you use it).

Best Picture
Sinners
Sentimental Value
Wicked: For Good
Hamnet
Frankenstein
Bugonia
It Was Just an Accident
Rental Family
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Weapons
___
The Ballad of a Small Player
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
The Lost Bus
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
After The Hunt
The Testament of Ann Lee
One Battle After Another
A House of Dynamite
Warfare
The Life of Chuck

Director
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Edward Berger, Ballad of a Small Player
Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
__
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Jon M. Chu, Wicked for Good
Scott Cooper, Springstenn: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt

Best Actor
Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player
Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Michael B. Jordan, Sinner
Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Supporting Actor
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value
Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Supporting Actress
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners
Ariana Grande, Wicked for Good
Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

Original Screenplay
Sinners
Sentimental Value
Ballad of a Small Player
It Was Just an Accident
Weapons

Adapted Screenplay
Hamnet
Ballad of a Small Player
Frankenstein
The Life of Chuck
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Who knows, we’ll see, until next time.