NextGen Oscarwatcher: Best Actor, Who Has the Goods?

If there is one acting category that feels fairly competitive but devoid of a contender who feels like an undeniable WINNER, it really does seem like Best Actor in a Leading Role would fit that definition. Though undeniably full of potential, from transformative biopics (in the presence of Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson in The Smashing Machine and Jeremy Allen White in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere) to more nuanced work (in the presence of George Clooney in Jay Kelly and Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon), it’s no doubt very possible to create a lineup that is both strong in its quality, and full of diversity in what each performance offers to the audience. 

However, what the category is lacking, at least in the eyes of pundits, is an obvious frontrunner or performance that feels strong enough to win, on the merits of performance, narrative, and strength of film. In order for a performance to win this category, I truly believe an actor needs at least two of these components; all three mean either a sweep is likely, or a victory in a tight race is plausible. 

Looking at the Awards Expert App, let’s see what the consensus is offering at the moment. 

Out in front (as he has been the whole season, sight unseen) is Timotheé Chalamet for Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme. Rumored to be an incredibly baity performance inspired by professional table tennis player Marty Reisman, part of the reason so many have stuck by him (a raw majority of 58% of users predicting an outright win), is that in addition to what his performance could offer, there is a narrative here (incredibly well known and beloved young actor finally having the role of a career), and the possibility that the film he is in is could very well be a strong across the board player. 

It’s a solid narrative to get behind, and if A24 plays its cards right, it could have this category all sewn up. His SAG speech for A Complete Unknown, found here, gave off an impression that impressed some viewers, and alienated others. Though it would be quite fitting if Marty Supreme, a film about “winning” and being “one of the greats,” ended up being his Oscar-winning role, a performance that he has been building his entire career up to. 

Right up behind him is Jeremy Allen White’s performance as Bruce Springsteen, and though its Best Picture prospects are questionable, it still feels solid enough for him to end up in this category, continuing the trend of these music biopics, which includes notable figures in the past such as Austin Butler’s turn in Elvis, Bradley Cooper’s role in Maestro, and Rami Malek’s role in Bohemian Rhapsody. 

The performance that has shot up into the top five after being in the background for much of the season (perhaps prematurely by some, including yours truly) is Leonardo DiCaprio for PTA’s One Battle After Another, which, to many, is quickly turning into a Best Picture frontrunner, if not THE Best Picture frontrunner at the moment. Though not necessarily an “Oscar bait” role that has traditionally prevailed, many have praised his role, signaling how radically different it is from anything else he has done. With the recent trend of lead roles prevailing in Best Picture winners (from Michelle Yeoh for EEAAO, Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer, and Mikey Madison for Anora) one must wonder if the love for OBAA could carry him to a victory. When the film releases this week (I intend to see it on Thursday), more thoughts regarding PTA’s film will present themselves. 

After this is Michael B. Jordan for Sinners, and for a small amount of time, I believed it. Though not necessarily a flashy or “traditional” Oscar-bait role, when Jordan does in Coogler’s film, playing opposing characters and becoming the voice of reason as we experience the horror through Sammy’s perspective, one must commend what is on screen. However, I truly always believed that Jordan’s chances depended on Sinners being a nomination leader, or Best Picture frontrunner. Though the film is undoubtedly still a strong contender for these prospects, in a competitive lineup like Best Actor (and their history with snubbing most horror performances), I’m not as confident in this placement. 

The biggest wildcard has been Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson in The Smashing Machine. Though initially hailed as a solid Oscar contender out of Venice, where Benny Safdie took home the best Director trophy, the TIFF crowd was much more critical, and reviews are far more mixed. Though he has the performance, The Smashing Machine is very much a film that needs critical love and buzz to stay in the minds of Oscar voters. Opening up in a few weeks, one can hope it can attract a solid enough fan base for Oscar potential, and the passion for getting The Rock an Oscar nomination could very easily depend on it. I remain skeptical, but he is worth keeping in the top contenders for now. 

Contenders on the outside looking in include Daniel Day-Lewis for Anemone (screening at NYFF and releasing in early October), George Clooney for Jay Kelly, Jesse Plemons for Bugonia, Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent, and Brendan Fraser for Rental Family.

Out of the bottom five, the two that really stick out to me are George Clooney for Jay Kelly and Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent. Though the former took a hit from mixed Venice reviews, the Telluride reaction was much more positive according to both Michael Patterson’s Telluride Blog (both the Expert’s ratings found here and here), so its presence in the Awards season, especially in the acting categories, can very easily factor in. Akin to another Netflix film like NYAD, the performances define Jay Kelly, even more so than the writing, and that can matter in the end. Wagner Moura to me feels like the contender who could be on the outside the whole season and surprise on Oscar morning due to the ever growing international academy, especially after winning the Cannes Best Actor award. We also can’t forget about the possibility of either Stellan Skarsgård or Paul Mescal making the jump to lead, but until there is confirmation regarding their placements, supporting seems like the solid bet. 

Oscar Predictions for Week of September 22

The major change, though already implied last week, is the solidification of One Battle After Another in Best Picture. Rocking a solid 96 on Metacritic, and 97% on Rotten Tomatoes, it’s not only a critical juggernaut, but one that has been implied to be a crowd pleasure with potential broad appeal. How it resonates with audiences (or if it does) could be crucial in its Best Picture chances, but as of now, Frontrunner it is. With the song titles in Wicked For Good finally be released to the public, I can slide the one I believe will be the contender No Place Like Home into the five

With It Was Just An Accident being selected by France, it seems fairly certain that its Oscar potential is solid, at least in that category, and whether it goes any further remains to be seen. 

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Sentimental Value
5. Marty Supreme
6. Wicked: For Good
7. It Was Just An Accident
8. Frankenstein
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
10. The Voice of Hind Rajab

Alts: The Netflix Trio (House of Dynamite, Jay Kelly, Wake Up Dead Man), No Other Choice, Is This Thing On?, The Testament of Ann Lee, Bugonia, and Avatar: Fire and Ash)

Best Director

1.  Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident

Alt: Ryan Coogler, Sinners, Park Chan-Wook, No Other Choice

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Alt: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Best Actor

1. Timotheé Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2.  Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Alts: Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine, Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan, Weapons
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

Alt: Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another, Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Best Supporting Actor

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
2.  Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Alt: Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. It Was Just An Accident
4. Marty Supreme
5. A House of Dynamite

Alt: Is This Thing On, Jay Kelly

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Bugonia
4. Wake Up Dead Man
5. No Other Choice

Alt: Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Casting

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Marty Supreme
4. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
5. Weapons

Alt: Wake Up Dead Man, Jay Kelly, Sentimental Value

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value
2. It Was Just An Accident
3. The Voice of Hind Rajab
4. No Other Choice
5. The Secret Agent

(Alt: Sirât)

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Cutting Through Rocks
3. Seeds
4. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
5. The Cycle of Love

(Alt: Mr. Nobody Against Putin)  

Best Animated Feature

1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
5. A Magnificent Life

(Alt: Elio)

Best Cinematography

1. Hamnet
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein

Best Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. Sentimental Value
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. Sinners
5. Hamnet

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. The Smashing Machine
4. 28 Years Later
5. Wolf Man

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Superman
4. Mission Impossible – The Final Reckoning
5. F1

Best Sound

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. F1
5. Wicked: For Good

Best Score

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Frankenstein
4. Marty Supreme
5. Hamnet

Best Song

1. No Place Like Home from Wicked: For Good
2. Dear Me from Diane Warren Relentless
3. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
4. I Lied to You from Sinners
5. Clothed By The Sun from The Testament of Ann Lee

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